Amazing that we are already set to open Week 6 of the NFL season. We’re just cruising through, looking at countless winners, whether it’s from the full Playbook or just here on the Showdown slates. I think I can speak on behalf of the entire Fantasy Alarm content team when I say how excited we are to see the #FAmily winning like this. Let’s try and keep that momentum rolling, shall we?

We’re getting an interesting match-up tonight between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Philadelphia Eagles. Talk about two teams trending in completely opposite directions. Most people are already penciling in the Bucs as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl while the Eagles seem like a ship with no captain lost at sea. Nick Sirianni seems to be having a tough time figuring out the identity of this team and this match-up isn’t going to make things easier for him. But before you write off the Eagles, remember, the Bucs secondary is dealing with a number of injuries and, overall, this defense hasn’t lived up to its billing. Finding the best spots to exploit, for both teams, is going to be an intriguing task for them and for you with regard to your lineup choices.  

Now before we begin, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Bucs -6.5

O/U: 52.5

Weather: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the high 60s; winds blowing NW at 3 mph

Notable Injuries:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rob Gronkowski, TE – ribs (out)

Ryan Jensen, C – hip (questionable)

Antoine Winfield, SS – concussion (out)

Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert, TE – COVID (out)

Lane Johnson, RT – personal (out)

DVOA Defensive Rankings

Buccaneers

vs Pass: 18th 

vs Run: 3rd 

Eagles

vs Pass: 10th 

vs Run: 23rd  

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

MVP/Captain

Tom Brady, QB TB – Do we even need to throw statistical analysis into this? Brady is (and this hurts me to say it as a Jets fan) the greatest quarterback of all time and his abilities on the field trump any statistical match-up data you can find. He will find a way to win and he will throw the ball often.

Jalen Hurts, QB PHI – The floor jumps up for Hurts with his rushing ability and touchdown potential, but even more than that is the struggles we’ve seen from the Bucs secondary. They’ve lost two key corners and are trying to replace them with Richard Sherman? Yeesh! Hurts should fare well both on the ground and through the air which makes him a top choice, for sure.

Mike Evans, WR TB – Picking a Tampa wide receiver can be a daunting task as they have three amazing ones from which to choose. But everyone is going to be using Antonio Brown in their top spot because he’s cheaper than Evans, he’s coming off a big two-score game and many are suggesting an increased role with no Gronk. But Evans is a dominant receiver also coming off a big game and matches up with an aging Darius Slay against whom he has a tremendous physical advantage. The Eagles rank 23rd in DVOA against the opposition’s top wideout and allow and average of 82.1 receiving yards per game to them, so don’t sleep on Evans.   

Zack Ertz, TE PHI – This might be my favorite simply because of all the top plays you can get into your lineup with him as your captain. But it’s more than just that. The Bucs rank 20th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing an average of 71.1 receiving yards per game to them. Tampa is also allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. With no Dallas Goedert, I am expecting a stellar game from Ertz tonight.

Mid-Tier

Antonio Brown, WR TB – Just to reiterate, he’s cheaper than Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, he’s coming off a big two-score game and many are suggesting an increased role with Rob Gronkowski out injured. All of that definitely makes sense, as well as his match-up against Steven Nelson. With how often Brady looks for him downfield, expect Brown to be a fixture in everyone’s lineups.

Chris Godwin, WR TB – He didn’t have the big game Evans and Brown had last week, but Godwin routinely sees the looks from Brady, as evidenced by the 11 targets last week and the eight targets per week average. He’ll be a contrarian play tonight as the masses have a short memory, so if he can gain position on Avonte Maddox, he can boost your totals.

Jalen Reagor, WR PHI – Based on where he usually lines up, Reagor is likely to see a lot of Richard Sherman which should be a generous boost to his value as his speed will shine bright in this match-up. The Eagles will move him from side to side to get DeVonta Smith freed up, but his speed plays well against Jamel Dean too. Most will turn to Smith for their lineups, so enjoy the lower ownership rates.

DeVonta Smith, WR PHI – Smith is an incredibly talented wideout and matches up well against both Jamel Dean and Richard Sherman. He should see ample opportunities in this match-up and should the Eagles fall behind in this one, his targets will likely increase. Overall, the Bucs rank 11th in DVOA against the opposing WR1, but they’re still allowing an average of 75.7 receiving yards per game to them.

Leonard Fournette, RB TB – He’s the top running back in this backfield and should see the majority of carries against a defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA against the run and 142 rushing yards per game. They’ve also coughed up four rushing touchdowns and are allowing nearly 40 yards per game on running back pass plays. If you believe the Bucs are going to grind it out on the ground early, Fournette is your guy.

Dart Throws

Quez Watkins, WR PHI – The Bucs seem to struggle against the slot receiver, ranking 18th in DVOA and are allowing 68 receiving yards per game to them. Watkins has seen an increase in snaps and he’s also starting to see a few more targets. It’s going to be a tough match-up with Ross Cockrell, but Watkins definitely has the speed to beat coverage.

Ronald Jones, RB TB – While Fournette didn’t see a ton of work against the Dolphins last week, he’s been leaned on fairly heavily over the past two weeks, seeing 82-percent of the snaps in Week 4 and then 62-percent in Week 5. With the short turnaround, many running backs tend to struggle in Thursday night performances and teams like to give their backfield mates a little extra work. If Rojo can keep from fumbling his opportunities away, he could enjoy some decent work and maybe even a random trip into the end zone.  

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