PGA DFS Playbook: THE NORTHERN TRUST

We all know the talent that Jon Rahm brings to the course every single time he tees the ball up.  He has not played since his 3rd place finish at the Open Championship, and finishes of 7th at the Scottish Open and victory at the U.S. Open.  If that’s not enough reason to pay up for Rahm, he also finished 3rd at THE NORTHERN TRUST in 2019 at Liberty.  Don’t overthink it, he should be owned despite his cost.

It’s been an amazing bounce back season for Spieth.  I feel like the PGA Tour is better when Jordan is in the mix.  He has not missed a cut since the Farmers Insurance in late January and over that time span, only one finish above 30th.  He has also scored nine Top 10 finishes which includes a win at the Valero Texas Open.  I wrote above how important short game and putting will be this weekend, and we know that’s where he thrives.  Spieth finished 6th at the 2019 NORTHERN TRUST at Liberty.

This pick may surprise but I believe in Rory.  I also think he’ll be lower owned of the big dogs in this field.  Since his missed cut at the Masters, he won the Wells Fargo, finished Top 20 at the Memorial, Top 10 at the U.S. Open and Top 15 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  McIlory also finished 6th at the 2019 NORTHERN TRUST at Liberty.  Yea, putting and around the green are not his specialty, he more than makes up for it off the tee ranking 2nd in Driving Distance and 5th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.  I think we’re going to be pleasantly surprised by his ownership this weekend.

I think you know by now that I’m not a huge fan of Bryson.  I think he is extremely talented and really changed the game but I just don’t love his game.  You can only bomb it so far and I don’t think it’s a long term route to success.  All that being said, I’m going to roster him this weekend without hesitation especially at his price point.  He has only missed two cuts the entire 2021 calendar year with a win at the Arnold Palmer and Top 10s at the Sentry, PLAYERS, Wells Fargo, and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  He won the 2018 NORTHERN TRUST in New Jersey but at a different course, he followed that up with a 24th at the 2019 edition at Liberty.  He’s a completely different player than he was in 2019 and I’m counting on that when he takes it on this weekend. 

Well, you all know how much I appreciate Ancer’s game and how delighted I was to see him get the victory at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  He also has four Top 10 finishes prior to his win over his last seven starts.  He’s playing fantastic golf and there is no reason not to roster him this weekend in New Jersey especially knowing that he finished runner up to Patrick Reed at the 2019 NORTHERN TRUST.  I’d also like to point out that Ancer is 23rd Off the Tee, 26th Tee to Green, 27th in Approach and 35th in Putting.  Fire at will! 

Three Top 10 finishes in his last four starts on the PGA Tour which happened to be at the U.S. Open, Open Championship and WGC-FedEx St. Jude, all with top notch fields like this one. While he did not participate in the 2019 edition of THE NORTHERN TRUST, he finished 3rd last year and 15th in 2018 despite being at different courses.  Berger is the type of player who can fit any course because of his balance throughout the golf bag.  He ranks 6th in Approach, 8th in Greens in Regulation and Total, 19th Tee to Green, 30th in Putting and 39th Off the Tee.  The price tag is always at a value for his skill set. 

Another player that’s red hot coming into this weekend at THE NORTHERN TRUST.  He’s got three Top 5 finishes in his last four starts including the U.S. Open, the Travelers and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  I’m really appreciating his slow start to the 2021 calendar year because his price has been great over the summer when he started to heat up.  While he didn’t compete in the 2019 edition of THE NORTHERN TRUST, English did finish runner up last year.  He specializes around the greens ranking 31st and even better on the green ranking 13th in putting which gives me all the confidence in the world that he’ll have no problems at Liberty.

The model of consistency throughout the 2020-2021 PGA Tour season.  Since October of 2020, he’s missed just two cuts with 14 Top 20 finishes over that time span.  I’ve spoken at length about his premiere ball striking skills but on and around the greens can be a struggle at times.  If he could ever get his putting into the Top 50 on Tour, he’d be unstoppable.  Despite his putting woes, he still finished 21st in his 2019 trip to THE NORTHERN TRUST at Liberty.  His ability with his irons should keep him out of trouble and on these small putting surfaces which is why he ranks 15th in Greens in Regulation.  He’s also 9th Off the Tee, 13th Tee to Green, 14th in Approach and 22nd in Total.  Play the Canadian without fear this weekend.

Overall, it’s been a disappointing season for Tyrrell especially with such high expectations heading into the 2020-2021 season.  It’s been very uneven, with bright spots like his Top 20 at the Masters and WGC-FedEx St. Jude and runner up finish at the Palmetto but low moments like missed cuts at the U.S. Open and Open Championship.  He has made the cut in all three of his trips to THE NORTHERN TRUST including 2019.  Another player like Corey Conners with premiere ball striking ability but struggles on and around the greens.  Ranks 11th in Approach, 15th Tee to Green, 21st in both Off the Tee and Total.  When I see a player of his caliber priced under 8K, it’s almost too good to ignore. Hatton also needs a nice finish to keep himself in next week’s field, he currently sits at 63rd and could easily fall out of the Top 70 with a missed cut.  He is a tournament play only this weekend. 

Poulter is currently on the outside looking in at the BMW Championship field at number 79 in the FedEx Cup standings.  He has slowly crawled back his way back into the mix by making seven straight cuts including a Top 10 in his last start at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  Poulter has also made the cut in his last four appearances at THE NORTHERN TRUST including a 10th place finish at the 2019 edition at Liberty. Ian is a master around the greens ranking 12th and even better on them ranking 4th in Putting.  He has a lot to play for this weekend and one thing we know about this Englishman is he thrives under pressure.  It would not surprise me at all to see his name in the Top 10 at the end of this weekend. 

Lowry currently stands at 66th in the FedEx Cup Standings which makes him one missed cut away from possibly dropping out of the BMW Championship field.  Shane has only missed one cut since early March with four Top 10 finishes including THE PLAYERS, PGA Championship and Memorial. He also finished Top 15 at the Open Championship.  While he didn’t have a stellar finish, he did make the cut at the 2019 NORTHERN TRUST at Liberty.  I think he fares better this time around as he ranks 20th Around the Green, 22nd Tee to Green, and 35th in Approach heading into this weekend.

Cameron has made the cut in five of his last six starts including Top 20s in two of his last three. Tringale is another specialist down in where it counts, ranking 18th in Putting, 39th in Approach and 42nd Around the Greens.  While he missed the cut at THE NORTHERN TRUST in 2019, he’s a much better player than he was two years ago, just go back and look at his results, they speak for themselves. Cameron sits comfortably in the field at the BMW ranking 41st in FedEx Cup points but he’s looking towards the Tour Championship which looming in two weeks and wants to position himself. He does not need a missed cut in the last cut event of the season, he’s a tournament play only.

Vegas is another guy who sits in a great spot heading into the FedEx Cup playoffs sitting at 49th in points.  He’ll play this weekend and will likely play next week at the BMW but will he play in the Tour Championship?  That’s what he wants and he’ll have to earn over the next two weeks.  We saw Roger Sloan move from 131 to 92 in one week, things will shift this weekend.  He has played terrific over the summer with two runner up finishes over his last five starts at the Palmetto and 3M.  Vegas has never missed the cut at THE NORTHERN TRUST over all those different courses, highlighted by a 3rd place in 2017 and most importantly, 15th in 2019.  We know his specialty is driving the ball ranking 4th Off the Tee and 9th in Driving Distance but his ball striking has been what’s given him so much success ranking 32nd Tee to Green.  He’s also 35th in Greens in Regulation.  I really love Vegas this weekend for tournaments.

We spoke about his struggles this season.  We talked about his two Top 15 finishes in his last four starts at the John Deere and Barracuda.  He is a terrific ball striker but the putting hasn’t been there.  Varner made the cut but finished 57th last weekend which kept him in the exact same spot as last week in FedEx Cup points, 72nd, just outside the BMW field.  This week is put up or shut up at THE NORTHERN TRUST.  He needs at least a Top 30 finish to be able to play next weekend. The good news for him, he finished 3rd in the 2019 edition of THE NORTHERN TRUST, he knows this course and is obviously comfortable here.  I’m going to give him another shot.

Here’s a guy who stepped up in a big way last weekend. He made something happen and not only got himself into this field but has an outside shot at getting into the BMW next weekend.  He’ll need another playoff loss or outright win but it is doable.  He’s made the cut in nine of his last ten starts with his playoff loss last week and a 6th place finish at the Barracuda.  Sloan did compete in the 2019 edition of THE NORTHERN TRUST and made the cut but finished 64th for the tournament.  Just like his season as a whole, his numbers across the board are very consistent as well ranking 21st in Greens in Regulation, 54th in Tee to Green, 58th in Approach and Off the Tee, and 86 in Around the Green.   

Looking through this pricing sheet knowing that most people are going to want to fit two maybe even three of the top tier players into their lineup, I felt I had to give you at least one deep dive option. Merritt has made the cut in his last two trips to THE NORTHERN TRUST and actually finished Top 12 in 2019 at Liberty. Since May, he’s got three Top 10 finishes including a runner up at the Rocket Mortgage.  The 35-year-old has two career wins on the PGA Tour and is known for his work on the greens.  He ranks 44th this season in Putting.  I think he is more than capable of making value this weekend in New Jersey.