NBA DFS Playbook: October 27

I mean, this guy has been nothing short of amazing and is coming off a 40 piece against the Lakers. Morant has been incredible through three games, scoring 35 points per game while posting a 35% usage rate. Memphis gets a nice pace up spot against the Blazers and this 234 total this game features is the biggest mark on the slate. Morant is one of the highest price point-guards for a reason.

There is no question who the forgotten man at the top of the PG position will be on this slate. With how loaded it is, Trae Young generally flys under the radar. That’s a mistake as ATL has a lot of advantages in this spot. They get a slight bump in pace and the Pelicans are allowing 110 PPG this year. Young fell one assist shy of his second double-double last time out and has flashed an incredibly safe floor even when his shot isn’t falling. This is a great spot for Young in all formats.

This is the best game environment on the board with the slate leading total sitting at 234. Lillard’s start hasn’t been great, but blowouts have caused his minutes and numbers to be lower than normal. What’s up with this FD price? They’re forcing us to take the bait. I’m much more inclined to think about it on DK than I am on FD.

We don’t need to get all that analytical here. LeBron James has been ruled out and Anthony Davis is questionable. Westbrook is already a lock and load with James out, but don’t even think about fading him if Davis sits too. Oh, by the way, he returns to OKC tonight.

If you’ve listened to the NBA DFS podcast at all, you know Jon Impemba and I have spent nearly every pod talking about Ball’s minutes and why he’s not playing more. He finally saw north of 30 minutes in the fourth game of the year and then fouled out. If he can stay on the floor and play 30 minutes, he’s as good of a play as just about anyone else at this position.

Paul has double-doubles in two of his first three games and likely was on his way in the third game if not for a blowout. He finished with 11 assists. This match-up with the Kings is a fantastic one for Phoenix as Sacramento ranks 29th in DvP against the point-guard position. This is a pace up spot for CP3 and the Suns and the Kings have an abysmal 114.6 DRtg as a team this year. 

He was 8.1K on DK on Tuesday’s slate and went for 40.75 DKP and scored 30 actual. Now, he gets a match-up against the Lakers and he’s back to 7.1K. A Lakers team that could be without LeBron James. He’s scored 29+ actual points or more in back to back games and has a 28.8% USG to start the year, which leads the team by a wide margin. This is a MASSIVE pace up spot for OKC too and LAL has a 110.2 DRtg on the year.

Look, as much as I don’t think much of him as a player, he’s a key part of this Pelicans team this year, especially while Zion Williamson is out. He’s never been an efficient scorer, but when he hits his shots -- like he did last time out -- he has a lot of upside. We saw that upside on display last time out and has now put up 30+ DKP in three of four games. Trae Young is a lot of things, but a good defender he is not. He has a career 116 DRtg.

It’s interesting to see Mitchell playing this much early on, but here we are. He’s now played 32 minutes in back-to-back games and had his best game of his young career last time out, notching 22 actual points and 29.75 DKP. He’s VERY good defensively and will have his bumps in the road offensively, but when the shot is falling, his upside on both ends of the floor is tremendous.

Nothing more than a cash game guy or a value punt, but Jrue Holiday is one again out and Hill will likely slot in as the starting PG here. He’s started and played 25 & 26 minutes in back to back games, putting up 20+ DKP, which is better than 5x his value. Hard not to like that production from someone under 4K in cash.

It’s been a great start for Brown who has seemingly taken another step offensively this year. This is a great environment for points to be scored and both teams are playing fast. The total sits at 226.5, which slots in as the third highest total on the board. Brown’s usage rate has been right on par with Jayson Tatum posting a 31.1% mark, while Tatum’s is 31.8%. Tatum definitely has the tougher match-up against KCP, leaving Brown in a lot of one-on-one’s with Bradley Beal who is a subpar defender.

Everything is pointing me to the Raptors on this slate. They have one of the biggest pace up spots on the board, are facing a Pacers team allowing 117 PPG & have a 110 DRtg. VanVleet hasn’t really gotten his own offense going yet, but he’s coming off a 17 assist, 50 DKP game. When the shot begins to fall, we’re going to be seeing 50+ FP a lot more often than not, especially with Pascal Siakam still out.

Look, he’s been more productive from a fantasy standpoint than Lillard and he’s 1.4K less on DK. I prefer McCollum on DK and Lillard on FD. This game environment is far and away the best on the board but McCollum isn’t someone who generally garnes a ton of love in the ownership department. Really great cash play, sneaky GPP play.

Picking between this tier is hellish because they’re all in fantastic spots. Edwards has taken 21+ shots in all three games this year and has given us a floor of 42 DKP to boot. He’s a very strong cash game play with GPP upside in a game approaching 230 in Vegas. 

In current form, whether the shots are falling or not, they’re there for NAW and he’s been particularly good everywhere else which has provided him a tremendously safe floor. Even despite his poor shooting, he has still averaged 17.3 PPG. The only thing I worry about is this is a pace down spot for New Orleans which could potentially limit his upside. Cash games only for me. Tyler Herro, at the same price on DK, is the GPP pivot.

Despite only playing 25 minutes last time out, Mann dominated putting up 36.75 DKP. It was a blowout and a lot of the third string guys got the blowout run. We should see a lot more of Mann in this spot in a more competitive setting, especially knowing Marcus Morris is out. The Clippers could elect to play a bigger lineup, however, considering the Cavs are starting three 7’0” from SF-C.

We we chasing the points here? Can we rely on Kennard to hit 8-of-10 again? 6-of-7 from three? Not really, but he should continue to get plenty of bench run against CLE without Marcus Morris healthy. Kennard is very cheap and is a very solid option in GPPs on this slate.

LBJ is out, so we should see Monk draw another start. It is worth noting Wayne Ellington is questionable and if he plays, we'll have to see if he potentially starts over Monk. I don't think he would but it's at the very least worth mentioning.

Brown wasn’t in the Nets rotation and then he was. Brown’s a nice pivot at 3.7K off of Malik Monk if you don't want to eat the Monk chalk. He’s not exactly a high usage player, but he contributes in multiple categories and should easily hit 5x here.

Guys been incredible. That’s all we can say. It isn’t the easiest match-up against the Heat, but Durant’s 33.3% USG rate and 31/10/6 statline combat that. You might actually get Durant at lower ownership on this slate than you would generally. 

The Clippers are eight point favorites at home in a 219 total and George has been tremendous to start the year. He’s averaging 28 points, seven rebounds, five assists and four steals through the first three games while notching a robust 32.3% USG rate. The Cavs are going to try and use Lauri Markkanen to guard George? Yikes. Massive advantage for George.

When Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez have been out this year, it’s been a two man show with Giannis and Middleton. Middleton actually has the higher USG rate with them off the floor (34.4% to 34% for Giannis). Middleton put up 45 DKP his last time out -- without Holiday -- and has topped 37 DKP in back-to-back games. This is a fantastic game environment with two of the higher paced teams in the league.

I’m having a hard time ignoring Anunoby here. He’s looked extremely sharp in his last two games scoring 22 or 23 points while contributing everywhere, leading to a 41 DKP/game average over that span. His 23.6% USG rate leads the starting five and the Pacers defense has been BAD. They have a 110 DRtg and have allowed 117 PPG this year. Anunoby is too cheap here.

When looking at DvP, there is no better match-up on the board for SF than Desmond Bane. He’s also still under 5K for some reason. He’s also in the best game environment on the board. He’s put up 33 or more DKP in all three games and has topped 30 minutes in each outing as well and while Dillon Brooks remains out.

This play is 100% contingent on Norm Powell’s health. Powell in, not even looking Little’s way. Powell out, Little under 4K is interesting.

Safe for all formats anytime, all the time, especially when Jrue Holiday is out. He’s averaging 1.6 FP/min without Holiday on the floor this year. Yeah, that’s pretty good.

What you’re paying for when using Sabonis is a very strong cash game play. I don’t think there is tremendous upside at nearly 10K across the industry.

There are a lot of layers with the Lakers tonight. Davis fell and injured himself last night and even said without the work he put in on his body this offseason it would have been worse than it is. Will he play or won’t he play on the second leg of a back-to-back is the question. If he plays, this is as much of a lock and load spot as it’s going to get. If he sits, well, things get interesting because of the lack of front court depth the Lakers have. This game is at 8 pm EST, so we should have an idea before lock whether he is going to give it a go.

Look, the Celtics are taking caution with Horford but when he’s been on the floor this year he’s been great. He’s only 5.8K and has two double-doubles and EIGHT blocks in two games. That’s hard to ignore in a match-up against a poor Wizards front court. It’s been surprising to Horford’s USG rate at 23.9% this year. That’s pretty elite. I don’t love the mid-tier, but I love the Horford play for all formats.

I’m willing to go back to the well here with Melo. LeBron James has been ruled out and Anthony Davis is questionable. This isn’t just a revenge game for Russell Westbrook either as Melo played a full season in OKC a few years ago. It’s been a mixed bag of a results for Anthony this year, but we’ve seen a 28 actual point ceiling and that’s the upside he could have here if LBJ and AD sit. He’s in play if AD plays either way.

Before 100% committing to Portis, we need to know how many minutes he's going to play. He should start at center here with Brook Lopez out and this is one of the BEST spots at the center position. We know Portis is usually an auto play when spot starting for Lopez, but because he's been out the entire preseason and regular season, I'd like to know the limitations and if there are any.

So yeah, KAT looks great. Very great. Almost incredible. He has two double-doubles, he’s twice scored 30+ actual points and has four steals and seven blocks in three games. He’s doing it ALL. His match-up against a returning Bobby Portis and Giannis Antetokounmpo is a good one.

Jon Impemba have begged and pleaded Valanciunas’ head coaches to give him big minutes for YEARS. Well, Willie Green...thank you. Jo Val is absolutely dominating right now, coming off back to back games of 20+ points and 17+ rebounds including 23 rebounds his last time out. This is a slightly tougher match-up, but the Hawks are still limiting Clint Capela and that bodes well for Valanciunas.

After playing under 30 minutes in the first two games of the year, Jarrett Allen has come out over 30 minutes and looked great, notching double-doubles in each game. Attacking the front court of the Clippers and Ivica Zubac is one of my favorite things to do and Allen should feast in this spot.

Absolutely no reason whatsoever should Steven Adams be 5.3 at this point but here we are. Take advantage while we still can. He’s been good everywhere and now is in a game in which he has a massive pace advantage and a monster 234 total. I’m here for that. Adams in any format you like.

Achiuwa continues to garner a lot of rostership on each slate as he should because these sites fail to recognize his production and standing on this roster. Achiuwa’s minutes have been up the past couple of games due to Chris Boucher basically being annexed from the rotation. He has three straight double-doubles and the had put up at least 28 DKP in each of them. He’s failed to record a block through four games, which limits his upside on FD, but the DK double-double bonus covers that up. 

What could be potentially sneaky is Dwight Howard. This is contingent on Anthony Davis’ status, but Howard has a firm standing within this Lakers rotation. More so than DeAndre Jordan does. Even if AD sits, I expect Jordan to remain the starter, but the Lakers don’t like extending him past 15 minutes. Howard on the other hand has played 18 minutes in each of the last two. He’s a very solid FP/min guy and if Davis sits -- LBJ already out -- the Lakers could turn to the former All-Star for some big minutes and he could turn back the clock here.