NBA DFS Playbook: October 30

I like the spot quite a bit, but can OKC keep pace with the Warriors on the Warriors home floor? Vegas doesn’t think so as we see the -12.5 spread on DK Sportbook. Curry has only put up less than 55 DKP once this year but if he doesn’t play the fourth quarter, can he get there? Tournaments only for me personally.

As long as Jrue Holiday isn’t around, Murray should be able to get wherever and whatever he wants on the court. Murray’s gone triple-double and double-double in back-to-back performances and has topped 50 DKP in each. MIL ranks 21st in DvP against point-guards and this 223 total is the best on the board. Murray’s the top mid-tier play at PG on the slate.

There’s no reason to have SGA this cheap, no matter who the opponent is. He’s topped 47 DKP in two of three, has topped 40 FP in three straight and has 27+ actual points in three straight games. One of those three games came against these same Warriors. The spread at 12.5 is risky if this game gets out of hand. OR is it...SGA has failed to top 33 minutes just once this year and twice he’s topped 33 in games they’ve lost by 20.

I’ve liked attacking the likes of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier this year, not to mention Derrick Rose as well. Brandon Ingram has been downgraded to doubtful, and without Ingram on the floor this year, Graham has a 26.4% USG this season. He also has averaged 1 FP/min with Ingram off the floor. It is a back-to-back and there is risk there considering how good the Knicks have been this year.

Walker has been really good for the Knicks the last two games putting up 35 & 38 DKP and has a very solid match-up here. The Pelicans rank 25th in DvP against the point-guard spot and over this past week, we’ve seen Walker’s usage rate rise to 23%. The price point on DraftKings is ridiculously cheap given his upside.

It’s not the greatest match-up, but Malcolm Brogdon is doubtful and now we’ve seen McConnell’s price dip to 4.9K on DK after it being 5.5K on Friday night. He put up 22 FP on Friday going 4-for-14 from the floor. He’s generally more efficient than that and we should once again so 30 minutes from TJM in this spot. Great value play.

Point Donny. Point Donny is here for the first time this season. Mike Conley has been ruled out and we should see Mitchell take on the point-guard role for most of this one. With Conley off the floor last year, Mitchell had a 33.3% USG and averaged 1.27 FP/min. ELITE numbers and finally a competitive match-up with Chicago here.

He let everyone down on Friday so nothing like going back to the well the very next day with a great match-up. The Pacers are 28th against the position and FVV has a very solid 22% USG rate on the year. We saw James Harden torch the Pacers without Malcolm Brogdon last night and FVV has to be the Raptors version of Harden to have success.

Herro just continues to score the basketball as he’s coming off 26 on Friday and is now averaging 22 on the year. With Bam Adebayo questionable, the Heat could lean on their young offensive minded star in this match-up with an exploitable Memphis defense.

Maybe this will be the day he shoots well from the floor? Maybe. They’ll need him considering they’ll likely be without Brandon Ingram. He has a 31.8% USG rate and averages 1.13 FP/min with Ingram off the floor.

He’s done a LOT for this team. He’s even been on record saying he needs to do more. Barton has put up 30+ DKP in four of five games and has a great match-up against Minnesota. He’s very viable in cash games on this slate.

With Bam Adebayo questionable, this could be all Jimmy Butler all the time. It’s really been that way regardless as Butler’s been tremendous to start the year. He has back-to-back double-doubles and has 50+ DKP in three straight. That being said, he’s still just 8.6K and has a robust 28% USG rate. Memphis has a 113 DRtg and hasn’t played a lick of defense all year. Butler could once again have a ceiling game.

The price tag keeps me from going all in, but it’s a solid match-up and without Jrue Holiday, the Bucks need Middleton to shine here. Middleton had a dreadful game last time out and still managed 35 FP. He has a 30.1% USG rate and averages 1.1 FP/min with Holiday off the floor this year.

Anunoby struggled on Friday but is back in a good spot for Saturday’s slate against a banged up Pacers team. The Pacers have a 110 DRtg this year and Anunoby has a 24.3% USG rate this season. Anunoby is averaging 35 DKP/game this year and is in a prime spot to hit that mark and potentially fly past that number. The Pacers are the worst team on the board against opposing SF.

It took DK a long time to put Bane over 5K and we’re finally here. With his type of production, his 5.3K price tag is STILL too cheap. He’s yet to score less than 17 actual points in any game this year and has yet to score less than 29 DKP in a game.

It’s been a weird season for Giddey as his minutes have been up and down and up and down but one thing that’s for certain, Giddey is a helluva basketball player. He went for 38 DKP and still is only 5K in this spot. He has two double-doubles this year and has put up at least 38 in two of his last three outings.

We saw all last year when Conley sat, Joe Ingles started while Jordan Clarkson came off the bench. Ingles has played 26+ minutes in three of the four games he’s played in this year and has been sharp, putting up at least 24.5 DKP. All of those games featured Conley. This one does not. He averaged .97 FP/min with Conley off the floor last year.

The question is do you want to pay the premium or not. Personally, I want to pay up for a guy that could give me 70, potentially 80 FP. Can play Giannis in any and all format you’d like to.

Look, the Knicks offense runs through Randle. He’s flashed 60 FP upside on multiple occasions this year and now will be facing a Pelicans team without much resistance. Without Brandon Ingram. Even in blowouts, the Knicks play there guys too. The spread has mostly stayed at 7.5 despite the potential for Ingram to sit.

Price is down to 9.2K tonight and Brogdon is likely out again here. Yes, what I’m saying is I’m going back to the well here. With Brogdon off the floor, he has averaged 1.16 FP/min this year and this is CHEAPEST price tag we’ve seen all year long.

This is a great spot if OKC can keep it close, which is obviously the issue. Now that the minutes limit is finally gone, Green has put up 30+ DKP in three straight games. OKC is 22nd against PF this year and Green should take full advantage everywhere.

It’s going to be hard for Wendell Carter Jr. to chase Grant around all night and Grant should be able to get open looks offensively wherever he wants tonight. In the games he’s played in, he’s looked tremendous, averaging 34.1 DKP and has yet to shoot better than 40% from the field in any game this year. Orlando has arguably the worst defense in the league.

No Conley should lead to more shot opportunities for Bogdanovic. I think he's quite a solid option in the lower mid-tier section of the position.

Clint Capela is a really good defender, but Embiid is better offensively. He was able to shake his knee soreness well enough to suit up and is coming off nearly 60 DKP in his last match-up. He'll be low owned at this price and in this match-up.

Attacking Karl-Anthony Towns is a fantastic match-up for fantasy production. Jokic was two assists shy of a triple-triple and put up 46 DKP in just 25 minutes. He's as GOOD a spend up as anyone if Minnesota can keep this game close.

I think Gobert is on a different level offensively this year. He's yet to score less than 16 actual points in any game while also dominating on the glass. We haven't seen the block upside we're accustomed to seeing either, which when that comes paired with the scoring…GPP winning upside.

With Brandon Ingram out, there is NO doubt where the offense will run through; Jonas Valanciunas. He has four straight double-doubles, has put up 43 FP or more in each of them.

At a LOADED center spot, Poeltl likely falls under the radar here. He's been fantastic this year, notching three double-doubles in five games and has put up 40+ FP in two straight games.

Are we point chasing here? Possibly, because I don't think he's going to put up 50 FP again, but he does have four double-doubles in five games. Bamba flashed his defensive prowess last time out too, notching three blocks to go along with his season-high 18 rebounds.

I love the price tag on Trent across the industry here. No doubt about it Trent is in a good groove offensively and has done so playing 30+ minutes  a night. IND has been BAD defensively this year and Trent should take full advantage.