NBA DFS Playbook: November 1

UPDATE - Morant is questionable to play tonight. Watch the news for updates leading up to lock. If we don't know by 7 pm EST, use him in GPPs only and have a pivot ready. ORIGINAL - It’s not the best spot for Morant and the Grizzlies for sure, but he’s been so good this year, it’s hard not to suggest playing him. He has one of the best USG rates in the league entering play, notching a 32.5% clip. He’s averaging 50.1 DKP/game and he’ll check in at low ownership in this tough spot.

We just saw this match-up just a few days ago and this game went for 233 points. It has the highest total on the board at 223.5 too. Washington has been a subpar defensive unit and we saw Young double-double against them in their meeting. He has a plus match-up individually as the Wizards rank 18th in DvP versus point-guards.

What’s not to like about Murray? He’s gone for 71, 51 and 48 DKP in his last three games. Over that span he has a triple-double, double-double and a 23-9-5-3 line. He leads the team in scoring, assists, steals and is second in rebounding. He also has a 24.7% USG rate and that too leads the team. The Pacers have a BAD defensive unit, notching a 108.6 DRtg on the year. Murray might not be looked at much at his price, but that is a mistake.

The price still doesn’t represent the player. It’s too cheap. He didn’t have a great last game, but had a string of three games with 40+ FP before their blowout loss to GSW. The Clippers have not been great defensively and this is a nice little pace bump for the OKC side of things as well. The one and only worry with playing OKC guys this year is the risk of blowout. They’re a bad team full of young talent, but there’s a reason why they’re 12-point dogs here.

I think this match-up for Cleveland is very interesting as they square off against one of the league’s worst defenses. Charlotte is 27th in DRtg and they’re eighth in pace, so they’re playing fast and not playing any defense. Advantage Garland. I like Ricky Rubio here truthfully too, especially with the many minutes he’s playing. Garland has a very strong 23.2% USG rate and he could have a ceiling game in this spot.

When Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid were off the floor last year, Maxey looked really sharp, notching a 25.6% USG while averaging .99 FP/min. This year the usage rate has ballooned to 26.8%, but the FP/min has dropped to .67. This is first really great opportunity to shine without either of them on the floor and while he’s facing the team playing at the third fastest pace in the league.

So here’s our dilemma. Milton is SO cheap but what will his run look like tonight? He played a season high 19 minutes last time out, but he’s working back from an injury. Since last year, he’s been dominant when Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons have been off the floor. In a 28.6 minute sample this year, he has a 30.9% USG and averages 1.35 FP/min, while notching a 29.6% USG and 1.1 FP/min in an 800 minute sample in ‘20. Can Milton see up t0 22-23 minutes here because if he does, he’s one of the best cheap options on the board.

Brown’s name is in the dictionary next to “GPP” and “Tournament only play”. Why, you ask? Look at his box scores.

I’m not sure what the real upside is here, but it’s a really safe play. He’s 8.2K on DK and 7.9K on FD and his ceiling on DK has been 46 to this point. He went 6-for-19 from the floor against Denver, which happens. They’re a good defense. Orlando is DEAD LAST in DRtg and can be exploited everywhere defensively.

I don’t love Melton’s price, but I think it’s something we HAVE to take a look at if now questionable Ja Morant doesn’t play. Melton will take on a MASSIVE role in this offense if Morant ends up sitting.

As if Lu Dort being ruled out solidified Giddey’s role anymore than it already did, but yeah, that’s where we are. Giddey’s price continues to be too low for the upside, we just need OKC to stay competitive here and he can give us a ceiling game. Giddey’s averaging north of a FP/min this year (29.8 FP/game & 29.1 MPG).

With Scottie Barnes out, Trent could definitely be asked to take on more responsibility in this game. He played very poorly his last time out, but he put uo 21+ DKP in five straight games and has 27+ DKP in four of the five games. His minutes have for the most part been secure as well and the one place we can exploit this Knicks defense is with guards.

Marcus Morris has been out of the lineup and Nicolas Batum has been in but Mann continues to play heavy minutes. He’s played 25+ minutes in every game this year including 29 his last time out. He’s flashed big upside too putting up a 37 FP game against the Blazers. The Thunder rank 28th in DRtg this year and are exploitable everywhere.

The man is on a different planet right now. I can’t blame these sites for raising his price to where they have because if he continues to have to put up 40+ to have a shot at winning, he could continue to give us 60 burgers. Not sure how many people will roster him at this price point & you could get him a lower rostership than you should.

This is a nice cash game option for your Monday lineups. It even gets a little spicier if/when Scottie Barnes is eventually ruled out. With Barnes off the floor this year, Anunoby has a 25.6% USG rate and has averaged 1.13 FP/min. There’s a reason why this game has a 208.5 total; it’s not very appealing and likely not a ton of offense, but Anunoby has a nice floor for cash.

I’m never giving up hope, Michael Porter Jr. Neverrrrrrrrr! The shots were there last game (14) as were the minutes (34). He even chipped in with 12 boards. The shots just need to fall. Memphis ranks 29th in DRtg as a team. 29th. This HAS to be the spot for him, but limit your exposure to GPPs.

Every other Grizzly seemingly has gotten a massive price bump and Bane’s just over here, chillin’ at 5.3K. He gave us 26 FP in 26 minutes last time out and before that game he failed to give us less than 29. He’s been a FP/min monster and if Morant is ruled out, a lot of the offense could flow through Bane.

The price is too low for me, dawg. Seriously. He’s only 4.8K and is fully healthy. He played 33 minutes and took 14 shots, putting up 29 DKP. I’ll gladly take 29 FP from a guy priced at 4.8K and if he shoots better than he did on Sunday we’re COOKIN’.

On the DFS alarm podcast, I mentioned I really like Luke Kennard tonight and I haven’t wavered there at all. Marcus Morris has been ruled out and the Clippers are running Kennard out there and telling him to get shots up. Over the last week, without Marcus Morris on the floor, Kennard has averaged .93 FP/min. He’s put up 28 & 37 DKP in two of his last three and is a solid GPP option.

The man of many positions. He’s a SG/SF on DK, a SF/PF on FD and a SG on Yahoo! Sheesh! Isaac Okoro missed last game Osman played 30 minutes. Well, Okoro is out again and so is Kevin Love, meaning we probably see a pretty chalky Cedi Osman here. Cedi Osman chalk is NEVER fun, but he’s under 4K on DK.

DK knew something was up when their algorithm spit out Tobias Harris at 9.1K. He’s still 7.4K on FD & $31 on Yahoo! Regardless, there’s no Ben Simmons and there’s no Joel Embiid. The offense is and will flow through Tobias Harris. DK makes you think a little bit, it really does. Don’t think about not playing him for ONE second on FD or Yahoo!

Look, I expect Collins to garner pretty heavy ownership here because of what he did against the Wizards last time out and although I like him, it’s hard to predict a 14-for-16 shooting night and hard to predict a guy to go 28 & 12 when he’s not the primary scoring option on a team. Washington ranks 21st against PF so he definitely has that going for him in this match-up with the highest total on the board.

He looked really, really bad last time and there is no denying that, but Mobley has been really good this year and looks like a budding superstar. He’s put up 39+ DKP in three of six games this season and with Kevin Love out, he should have a longer leash in terms of playing time. Charlotte is top-10 in pace and bottom-10 in DRtg. This is a GREAT spot for him.

It’s an extremely small sample size without Morant this year, but in the 22 minutes Jackson has played without Morant he’s notched a 37.8% USG rate and 1.26 FP/min. Jackson’s had a lot of trouble to stay out of foul trouble this year, which really puts him in a box and that box is tournaments only.

I’m not sure what Toronto is going to do with their starting lineup with Scottie Barnes doubtful, but Boucher has found himself back in the rotation recently. He’s played 18 minutes in three straight games and if he’s extended at all he can SMASH this 4K evaluation he’s being given. GPPs only.

Jokic, until further notice, is my favorite spend up of the slate. Jokic went for 68 FP last time out, has a 31% USG rate and has as much upside than anyone and everyone else. The problem becomes on one center slates, you’re likely rostering Andre Drummond, so you’ll have to make a decision if you want to fade Drummond 5.4K on FD.

Poeltl wasn’t able to stay out of foul trouble against Giannis this time around and because of that, he played 23 minutes in this one. Myles Turner isn’t necessarily someone that will put guys in much foul trouble, so Poeltl should be good here. He’s on the pricey side, but we’ve already seen him flash 50 FP upside this season.

We’ve been worried about the fit with Horford and Williams but the last time we saw them both on the floor -- against Washington -- they figured it out and Williams put up 40 FP. We see the upside. It’s tremendous. He has gone for 39+ DKP in three of five games, he just needs to stay out of foul trouble here.

I mean, he’s 4.4K on DK. He’s 5.4K on FD. He’s $16 on Yahoo! If you’re not playing him, why not?