NBA DFS Playbook: November 3

This game is clearly the best on the board and the best player from this game happens to be priced at 11.1. He’s been great this year averaging nearly 54 DKP/game and we know he has 70 FP upside to boot. Coming into this game, Charlotte ranks 28th in DRtg and fifth in pace, so there should be plenty of opportunity for Curry here.

It’s hard not to love what Harden has done the last two games for Brooklyn. He’s topped 50 FP in each and in one of the games he notched a triple-double. In those games, Harden has a 25.1% USG rate and has averaged 1.35 FP/min over that span. This isn’t going to be the fastest paced game out there as ATL is near the bottom in the league in that category, but the 218 total is solid and the Hawks rank 20th against combo guards according to DvP.

If Porzingis sits again, Dallas will have no rim protection at all and Murray will get to the cup whenever he pleases. He already did so once against them this year and now gets to face them on the second leg of a back-to-back. His ownership will be depressed due to his dud last time out but this is a guy who has flashed 70 point upside and is THE go-to guy for San Antonio this year.

We asked for the minutes. We got them. We asked for the production. We got it. Nothing not to like about the form Ball is giving us right now. He’s gone for 50+ FP in back-to-back games and has topped 30 minutes in three straight. This is the best game environment on the board with a total sitting at 226. My ONE drawback from Ball is that he can be foul happy at times and a match-up with Stephen Curry is not when you try reaching into the cookie jar because you’ll get bit.

This is such a nice, safe play. Garland fits our cash game builds perfectly. His match-up against Portland is a doozy as they’re ninth in pace and 20th in DRtg. Even in a game in which he shot 38% in, he managed 30.75 DKP and that was with the poor shooting AND only four assists while he’s averaging 7.5 on the year.

After going for nearly 40 FP on Tuesday, Brunson’s price tag dropped $400. Barring Kristaps Porzingis is out again, he should draw another start. With Porzingis off the floor this year, Brunson has averaged a 22.1% USG rate and .99 FP/min. He’s hit 35 FP in three of his last five games and has topped 27 minutes in four of five.

This is an interesting one. Beverely is listed as questionable but was able to log a full practice on Tuesday, which is always a good sign. D’Angelo Russell has already been ruled out and Beverley gets a little REVENGE here going up against his old team. Beverley has been great when on the floor this year failing to score less than 21.75 FP and he already was playing a 20-23 minute role, so 30 wouldn’t be out of the cards if he’s healthy.

Magic defense is very, very bad. Jaylen Brown can score very, very well. GPP’s only, however. 

With D’Angelo Russell off the floor, we should expect to see Edwards take on a bigger role in Wednesday’s game against the Clippers. With Russell off the floor this season, Edwards has a 34.7% USG rate and averages 1.2 FP/min. It’s hard to look at his 8.4K price tag and think there’s a lot of upside there, but he’s a special talent that can definitely hit 50 FP.

I think most people are going to take a look at the Hornets and immediately gravitate to LaMelo Ball and while that’s more than OK, don’t sleep on Scary Terry as we’re just past spooky SZN.  Rozier is coming off his best game of the year in which he took 22 shots, scored 23 actual and 40 DKP. It’s hard to ignore the total and pace of this game and not want as many pieces as you can possibly jam in there.

The GPP play here is Hield while the cash game guy is Tyrese Haliburton. Hield has been extremely solid this year and has flashed 40+ FP upside to boot. Haliburton hovers around 30 minutes and 30 FP and the match-up against the 27th ranked defense according to DRtg is ideal. Hield did not suffer much from back-to-backs last year as he shot over 40% from three (16 game sample). Fire him up in tournaments.

It’s not the same situation as it was the other day because Joel Embiid is back, but Tobias Harris is not and Curry has been really, really good without Harris this season. He’s notched a 26.5% USG rate while averaging 1.25 FP/min without him. Curry is likely the 76ers second offensive match-up in this spot and although it’s not the best spot, the volume will be there.

Yeah, fire him the hell up! 43 minutes?! That wasn’t even an overtime game! Trent is locked into huge minutes right now and not having Scottie Barnes only enhances his overall position on this team. Without Scottie Barnes on the floor this year, Trent has a 23.1% USG rate and averages .88 FP/min.

We’ve now seen Kennard top 30 minutes in three straight games and Marcus Morris has once again been ruled out, so we should see extended run in this one. He’s topped 24 DKP in three of four and has even flashed upside up to 37 DKP. I prefer him on DK where he gets the three-point bonus and has taken seven or more three’s in four straight games.

In three of his last four games, Beasley’s topped 27 minutes and has started to really look for his shot lately as he’s taken 16 and 14 shots the last two. D’Angelo Russell is out for this game so Beasley should be third fiddle offensively. Over the last week, Beasley has a 21.1% USG rate and is averaging .9 FP/min. He’s one of the clear cut values at the SG/SF position on this slate.

Look, as highly as we think about Kevin Durant, PG13 has been better from a FP perspective. He’s put up 60 FP three times this year and finished with 58 in a fourth. On the year, George has a 33.5% USG rate and 1.54 FP/min. Without Kawhi Leonard, George is the first, second and third option on this offense.

KD has been a very safe option this year minus getting kicked out of his last game. He hasn’t an elite usage, elite FP/min clip and is just...elite. I prefer PG13 at the position, but you could, if you wanted to, play both.

The Raptors asked a LOT of Anunoby last time out and he responded. Without Scottie Barnes, Anunoby scored 36 actual and 50 FP and guess what? Barnes is out once again. 40 minutes here we come! Without Barnes on the floor this year, Anunoby has racked up a 28.1% USG and has 1.18 FP/min.

I mean, what do we make of their last game? Wagner scored a career high 28 actual and 44.5 DKP. He’s playing 30 minutes a night and is now averaging 27 DKP/game. He faces a Celtics team coming off an absolute BRUTAL loss in which fingers were pointed at their stars. Who knows how they’re going to respond. 

Brandon Ingram is questionable and has missed two games in a row, Hebert Jones was hit in the face and left last night’s game and everything is kinda playing into Hart’s hand here. He’s started two games in a row and has played really well scoring 29 and 34 DKP. The Kings have a very bad DRtg this year and this is a solid pace up spot for NOLA as well.

I mean, 4.6K is very cheap for the upside here, especially with how he scores the basketball. In every game this year, Powell has scored double-figure actual points in every game this year; he just hasn’t contributed a lot elsewhere. That said, he’s a very good rebounder and is good defensively, two categories he’ll likely see positive regression in those spots while the scoring continues.

With Scottie Barnes out last game, Svi started and played BIG minutes. 35 minutes big. He’s so, so cheap and is coming off 34 DKP and now gets a match-up against Washington. He’s a nice value in this spot.

Now that Lauri Markkanen is placed in COVID protocol along with Kevin Love and Isaac Okoro is out, Osman is firmly back on our radar. Osman played 30 minutes two games ago and scored 20 actual and 32 DKP. Osman versus Svi is an interesting debate, but I lean Osman’s way.

We haven’t seen the upside from Randle lately, but he has a very safe floor. He’s gone for 60 FP twice this year and we’re getting him in a solid game total (216) and spread (IND -1). Randle has a 26.7% USG rate and 1.28 FP/min this year and can be trusted, mostly in cash, but also single entry tournaments.

Green is in GREAT form right now. He’s put up 37+ DKP in three straight and 42+ in back-to-back games. The scoring has been up this year for Green to go along with his normal statsheet stuffing ways. This game is the BEST game environment on the board and Charlotte is a top-five pace team and a bottom-three defense in terms of DRtg.

No Markkanen, no Love, no Okoro, no problem! Mobley has been a very strong FP/min contributor this year notching a .97 clip. Mobley has notched 32+ DKP in three of his last four games and in five of his eight contests. This is pace up spot against a poor Blazers defense, which puts Mobley firmly on our radar.

How the hell do we ignore this man? He’s been AWESOME back in a Celtics uniform notching a double-double in four of five games and has had 38+ DKP in EACH game this year. Oh by the way, the Magic are the WORST defensive unit in basketball per DRtg.

With Marcus Morris back and Batum back with the team, he’s been in the starting lineup since returning and he’s looked SHARP. In two of the last three games, Batum has 27+ DKP and the interesting thing is that he’s taken double-digit shot attempts in two of the three games. The need for offense with Leonard and Morris out, while Bledsoe and Jackson struggle puts Batum on the front line and he’s up to the task.

No Tobias Harris and no Danny Green tonight for Philly leaves a lot of minutes to be had. Niang has already been apart of this rotation to begin with, so to see his previous game and to see the minutes shouldn’t surprise us considering who was out. He has another chance tonight to approach 30 minutes here and is very, very cheap.

It is really, really difficult for me to ignore Jokic right now. He’s averaging 1.78 FP/min and has a 30% USG rate this year. That’s unheard of. 1.78 FP/min is UNHEARD of. Memphis, despite holding Denver below 100 points last game, is 29th in DRtg as a team and this is actually a very strong spot for the Joker.

In current form, Towns has shown a massive ceiling, but at a 10.6K price tag he’s also flashed a very low floor. Under 30 FP against Denver? Under 40 against the Pelicans? It’s a very good match-up, but the floor/ceiling combination has me ignoring him in cash and focusing on him in tournaments. No D’Angelo Russell helps his upside too.

It feels like Embiid will be the forgotten man here. Let’s not overlook the fact that it’s not only Tobias Harris out. It’s Harris, Ben Simmons and Danny Green out. Three of Philly’s starters when they’re at full strength. There was only a 47 minute sample in which all three of those guys were off the floor last year, but the numbers are….astonishing. He had a 47.9% USG and averaged 2.25 FP/min. H o l y c o w.

This guy has been incredible. No other way to say it. Incredible. He’s averaged over 50 FP/game over his last six contests, there could still be no Brandon Ingram here and without him this year JoVal has a 26.4% USG and 1.49 FP/min. He’s pretty much a lock and load at this point.

I mean, Capela wasn’t playing minutes wasn’t playing minutes wasn’t playing minutes...and then he was. He played 33 minutes and went for 40 DKP. John Collins isn’t also listed as questionable and if he’s not around, Capela is going to grab EVERY rebound as if he’s a vacuum cleaning up a vacant house.

I think there is volatility with this play considering how up and down Allen has been, but they really need to him out there considering they’re missing Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen and Isaac Okoro, three key members of their rotation. Allen is coming off a 24 point, 16 rebound game in which he put up 56 DKP, but the three games before he didn’t top 24 DKP. GPP’s only for me.

The only player off the Raptors bench that played heavy minutes last time out? 31 minutes. He put up 25 FP and is only 4K. It’s a great match-up when he’s on the floor against a foul happy Daniel Gafford an awful defender in Montrezl Harrell.

This is tricky because I do not love this play, but he's free. He could very well start here with Jakob Poeltl in COVID-19 protocol but what's his upside? How many minutes will he even play? It wouldn't surprise me to see Jock Londale draw a start here either in a Pop being Pop moment. All that said, Eubanks has averaged 1.09 FP/min w/ Poeltl off the floor this season.