NBA DFS Playbook: November 10

This could be a tough match-up for Curry if Patrick Beverley is starting again for MIN, but when he’s going good he’s tough to stop. He’s coming off a 50 actual point game and is one of the best spend up’s on the slate.

This isn’t a great match-up overall. The Heat are top-six in the league in DRtg and bottom three in pace. That said, there’s no LBJ and without James this year, Westbrook has a team leading 32.5% USG and is second averaging 1.39 FP/min.

This match-up is, well..elite. Memphis is 28th in DRtg and Charlotte is 30th. The only downside for Ball is that this is a game for CHA that is significantly down in pace. Ball made a comment about his playing time and then comes out and plays 42 minutes and drops a triple-double. He’s notched 40+ DKP in three straight and has topped 50 in three of six. Elite spot.

This has everything for Morant to succeed. CHA is 30th in DRtg as a team and they’re fourth in pace. Morant has already topped 50 DKP four times this season and LaMelo Ball is a subpar defender. I love the pace up nature of this game and this could very well be a ceiling game. He has a 33.1% USG and 1.3 FP/min on the year, both lead the team.

If Holiday suits up, he’s firmly in play here. He looked horrible offensively on Tuesday and still gave us 32 DKP because of his ability to stuff the box score. He’s matched up against Kemba Walker, Derrick Rose and Evan Fournier defense can really get you going. The Knicks as a team are 25th in DRtg this year. Middleton & Lopez are still out and without them this year, Holiday has a 25.8% USG rate.

With just Collin Sexton off the floor Rubio’s numbers jump off the page, but the Cavs are without Sexton, Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love. With Sexton, Markkanen and Love off the floor this year, Rubio has a 27% USG and averages 1.5 FP/min. HUGE numbers for Rubio and although I don’t expect 60 FP again, 5.2K is ridiculously cheap for what he’s providing us this year.

I think Cunningham is going to want to show the eff out here. After he was taken number one overall, Jalen Green going second, Green did some jabbering about it and how he’s thankful he didn’t end up in Detroit. Cunningham’s going to take that personal. He’s looked better the last two games and has even flashed a near 40 point ceiling. HOU is first in pace and 19th in DRtg, two things Cunningham can exploit.

He’s not a high usage player, we know that, but he’s going to be forced to shoulder a little heavier load here with Nikola Jokic suspended for one game and Michael Porter Jr. ruled out as well. With Jokic off the floor this year, Morris has averaged .88 FP/min, which is very solid at his price point. He’s scored in double figures in three of his last four games and has topped 23 FP in three of five. Nice value on this slate.

I’ve said this a couple of times, but at this price tag, I don’t view Edwards as someone who has massive upside, especially when the Wolves are healthy. He’s really, really good and is safe, but the upside at 8K and above hasn’t been there. According to our consistency report, he’s hit 5X at this price six times, but hasn’t topped it.

LaVine has just been too expensive all year long, but finally, FINALLY, is a price tag worth using him at. Out of the 10 games Chicago has played in, LaVine has hit 5X or better -- at this price -- in seven of them. He’s put up 40+ DKP in five straight games. Lavine leads the team with a 30.8% USG and is second with 1.14 FP/min.

It’s not a secret that Barton will be a highly sought after player on today’s slate. No Jokic, no Porter. The offense is going to flow through Barton like the Nile River. It’s only a 50 minute sample, but Barton has a 26.9% USG and 1.34 FP/min without both guys on the floor this year. He’s put up 47, 37 & 46 DKP in his last three games.

This is easily the best game environment on the board. For whatever reason, he’s 5.3K on FD after topping 34 FDP in each of the last two games and three times over his last five games. Rozier is starting to see the shots fall and that’s a great sign for what’s to come. Hard to pass up on FD at this price in this environment.

I already touched upon how good of a match-up this is for back courts talking about Jrue Holiday, but here we are again. Allen has been money in the bank recently, scoring 19+ actual points in three straight & 18 or more in four of five. He’s put up 32+ DKP in three straight too and gets a good match-up against the 25th ranked defense in basketball. Jump shooters on a back-to-back, that’s my only fear.

Is Brooklyn good enough to cover a 9.5 point spread on the road at this point in the season? Vegas suggests taking the +9.5 for ORL is the play at -115. If that’s the case and we get a full complement of minutes for KD, we could be in for something special against the 26th ranked defense in the league.

Not many safer players in the league than Barnes right about now. In seven of Barnes’ 11 games this season, he’s hit 5X or better at this price according to our consistency tool. He hasn’t had LESS than 4X in any one game yet. This 223 total is one of four over 220 and both of these teams are top 10 in pace (SAS is 6th, SAC is 9th).

So things aren’t great when Hayward plays with the starting unit, but when I started looking at rotations, he plays a lot with the second unit. Bridges and Rozier come off the floor first and when they’re off, Hayward has a 1.1 FP/min average. The match-up here is fantastic considering Memphis ranks dead last in DRtg and this game features the highest O/U on the board.

I’m into this play whether Brandon Ingram plays or not. I suspect even if Hebert Jones were to play, Hart would stay in the starting lineup. Hart had a fantastic game last time out going for 22 points, six rebounds and five assists across 37 minutes. He’s put up 26+ DKP in four of five and he could have a ceiling game on the glass as OKC ranks 22nd in rebounding percentage.

Tate’s been quite good for Houston this year, especially lately. He’s put up 25+ DKP in four straight games, twice topping 34. He is coming off a double-double and has five or more rebounds in six straight and in eight of nine. DET is a very bad rebounding team and Tate could give us a second straight double-double.

He has 60+ FP in his arsenal. Have to at the very least consider him, even if you don’t want to pay 12.3K. They’re still without Middleton, Lopez and DiVincenzo.

I don’t love the spot considering the Raptors can guard him with Anunoby, Barnes and Siakam, but without Jaylen Brown, Tatum has been a monster in years past and was last game as well. On the year, Tatum has a 34.3% USG and averages 1.24 FP/min without Brown. Prefer his FD price tag.

Not sure how many people look Randle’s way here with all the star power on the slate, but he’s firmly in play. Randle has gone for 50+ DKP in two of his last three games and one of them came against the Milwaukee Bucks. As good as their defense may be perceived to be, they’re 18th in DRtg as a team. The Knicks also get a nice pace up spot here as they’re 26th in terms of pace while MIL checks in at eight.

For whatever reason, DraftKings did not move Mobley’s price a hair as he is coming off a career best game so let’s go back to the well here. When you remove Love, Sexton and Markkanen off the floor, Mobley has a 23.9% USG and averages 1.3 FP/min. ELITE numbers for anyone, let alone a rookie.

It’s interesting but, but Jackson is basically splitting his time between PF & C, spending 48% of his time at C. That bodes extremely well for him considering Charlotte’s front court is DREADFUL and one we’re attacking each and every slate we have them. They’re 29th in DvP against PF too, so wherever he plays, it’s an elite spot.

Portis has been a monster in two starts this year, notching double-doubles in both while putting up 44+ DKP. There’s no reason to think he won’t be the starting center here if the Bucks don’t elect to sit him on the second leg of a back-to-back.

The numbers favor JaMychal here, but Jeff Green started and played 32 minutes with Michael Porter Jr. out last game. It’s not only MPJ out as Nikola Jokic has been suspended for this game. Green has a very respectable 20.9% USG with Jokic and Porter off the floor this season. He’s free.

What if I told you Javonte Green played a season high 29 minutes last time out, is in the starting lineup and is 3.1K against a bad front court defense? What’s interesting is when looking at how the rotation shaked out, because the Bulls blew Brooklyn out, Green played 17 first half minutes and wasn’t in during the blowout. He was just simply playing starters minutes.

I know Valanciunas is expensive, but what does OKC have to offer to potentially stop this guy? I’m not sure they have an answer. He has nine straight double-doubles and seven of them have been 20 point double-doubles. He has a super safe floor whether Brandon Ingram plays or not.

His price is getting up there, but at this point it’s still worth paying. He’s topped 39 DKP in four straight games and has hit 49+ in three of them. No Markkanen and Love once again and without Collin Sexton, the offensive explosion Allen is out could continue with him out. In a 43 minute sample, Allen averages 1.3 FP/min with those three guys off the floor.

This is the first time this year Plumlee has been 5K and I’m here for it. No PJ Washington and a call out about minutes and poof...35 for Plumlee in a game he double-doubles and fouls out of. Memphis is the worst defensive unit in basketball and Plumdog could be a great value here.

I’m not interested in paying nearly 5K for Frank the Tank and last time out he was outdone by McGee anyway. McGee is starting and played well last time out, putting up 26.25 DKP across 26 minutes. He’s put up 20+ FP in three of four games and he could very well play another 25 minutes here. McGee just needs to stay out of foul trouble.

Turner has been excellent lately, but definitely a tournament play only. He's put up 38+ DKP in four of five, and has three double-doubles over that span. He's back to his old ways blocking shots every possession down seemingly, notching three or more in four of five and two or more in 8 of 10.

I suspect Denver starts both Green’s on Wednesday and I actually prefer JaMychal to Jeff, but both are in play. With Porter and Jokic off the floor this year, JaMychal has a 22.7% USG while averaging .88 FP/min. If both Green’s are starting, you could make a case to play them both in the same lineup.

ADDED  It doesn't seem like a big deal, but Alperen Sengun has been ruled out for HOU. He's been playing backup center, which should keep Theis on the floor longer.