NBA DFS Playbook: December 8

UPDATE: We are now monitoring the status of Luka Doncic as he's listed QUESTIONABLE. Original: The thing we have to monitor is whether or not Kristaps Porzingis, who was dealing with a knee, could possibly sit on a back-to-back. Something to monitor because Doncic has a 38.5% USG & 1.5 FP/min average w/ KP off the floor this year.

UPDATE: Kevin Durant has been ruled out. James Harden in a revenge narrative without Kevin Durant is my top spend up of the slate. Original: Harden headed back to his own stomping grounds, which is the last place we saw him wearing his fat suit. He’s put up 50+ FP in four of six games, but this one will mean more to him considering the opponent. If you’re into revenge narratives, this is the play.

Something we keep hitting on is how poor Washington has played defensively recently. Over the last two weeks, they’re 27th in DRtg. On the flipside, Cunningham has really stepped into his own, scoring 26+ points in two of three and notching two double-double’s over his last four games. On top of that, he’s cheaper than the last three slates for whatever reason.

As Anthony’s price dips, we pounce. It’s a GPP play only, but a viable one at that. SAC is 26th in DRtg this year and Anthony has flashed 50 FP upside. Jalen Suggs is still out, and with Suggs off the floor, Anthony averages 1.17 FP/min and has a 28.7% USG rate, both lead the team. Great bounce back spot for Anthony.

It’s well documented the Bulls are dealing with a lot of absences right now. That means guys will have to step up and we saw Lonzo Ball do just that last game as he put up a double-double while notching 49 DKP. He sees a 3% USG bump with DeRozan, White, Green & Caruso off the floor and averages 1.1 FP/min without them. Look for Ball to continue to shine with these guys out.

This play is all dependent on how you view this game. They just were blown out by MIL, but that was on the road. This game is home. This price tag on DK for Lowry is silly. If you think MIA can stay competitive, you should have Lowry in your player pool.

Ayo, this was a pretty good dart throw last slate huh? Dosunmu started and played 42 minutes and there’s really no reason to think all the minutes he can handle wouldn’t come his way once again here. He can do a little of everything and he’s not even really taking too many shots and a very capable scorer he is. 

I went to FanDuel to see LaVine’s price b/c I’m not paying 10.5K on DK, but I will at 9.1K on FD. With DeRozan, Caruso, Green & White off the floor, LaVine had a team leading 34.6% USG and averages 1.39 FP/min, which also leads the team.

Jon Impemba asked me on the NBA DFS podcast tonight what’s the price I’d stop playing Kelly Oubre and there is no price right now. As long as Charlotte is without their guys, I’m playing Kelly Oubre. Over the last two games, he has a 24.3% USG and has averages 1.2 FP/min, both leading the team.

Read Kyle Lowry’s blurb. Exactly how I feel about Herro as well.

Although Dillon Brooks is the clubhouse leader in terms of usage rate and Jaren Jackson takes the cake for FP/min with Morant and Anderson out, but Bane’s 24.5% USG and 1.1 FP/min without them is pretty damn good. Not to mention the 40+ FP in back-to-back games and 30+ in four of five.

Generally, you see Cody Martin at 5K, you look the other way, but in this situation, it’s all systems go. It’s not as lock-and-loady as it’s been, however, but he’s going to play 40+ minutes here, so he’s in play for sure.

I mean, Harris just continues to be really really good. He’s scored in double-figures in five straight games and has 20+ DKP in those five. The kicker is he’s below 4K, so he’s exceeding 5x value every slate. There is a little more upside against this bad Kings defense too.

I really prefer this play if Jaylen Brown sits. There’s also a strong possibility Al Horford sits on the second leg of a back-to-back. If they both are out, Tatum has a 35.2% USG and averages 1.3 FP/min. Probably would be GPPs only for me considering this is a tough back-to-back.

No Ball, no Rozier, no Plumlee. Bridges has been a little underwhelming the last two games, but they need him to step up in a big way here and that’s well within his range of outcomes in GPPs.

Just like Bridges, the Hornets need more out of Hayward. In the two games since losing three key members to their rotation, Hayward has shot 10-of-34 from the field. Absolutely nothing wrong with taking 17 shots/game, that’s awesome, but we just need a few more to fall. We’re getting the peripheral stats, as he started at PG last game and had nine assists!

This is definitely the most love the Magic have gotten in a playbook in some time, but it’s a great spot for a lot of these guys. It’s no different for Franz who continues to just ball the hell out and is still below 6K. He’s put up 28+ DKP in seven straight games and has topped 30 in five straight. The Kings are 26th in DRtg this year. They’re also 8th in pace, so two of the top-13 teams in pace could mean a lot of offense here.

Do we chase the points? Is Barrett building confidence off this game? All questions we don’t have answers to, but an answer I can give you is that he flashed a near 50 point ceiling and is only 5.3K. Just knowing that’s in his bag should have him in our player pool for GPPs.

What we saw from Powell playing 44 minutes last game was out of pure necessity. That may happen here as Portland is without both McCollum and Lillard and about five other guys are listed questionable. This could very well get out of hand QUICKLY, but do they have the bodies to play without him even in a blowout is the question.

Out of necessity the Bulls will deploy Derrick Jones Jr. for as many minutes they can get out of him. He’s topped 27+ in two straight and has rewarded them handsomely. 4.3K is a little less forgiving than what his price has been at in past slates, that’s the one pullback. I don’t blame you. GPPs only.

This spread is only 6.5 and if you believe that number, two time MVP could be the GPP winning spend up of the slate IF this game does in fact stay competitive.

With Grant’s current form and the Wizards current form, this is the perfect match-up for Grant. He’s averaging 39.9 DKP/game over his last four and has flashed 50+ FP upside as well. WAS is 27th in DRtg over the last two weeks and Grant can’t be stopped right now. He’s scored 20+ actual in four of five and has topped 30 twice in four games.

Washington, although not starting, has been great off the Hornets bench, notching 34 and 42 DKP over his last two games and has topped 30+ in four of five games. He’s been contributing across the board, the only issue I see in this game is foul trouble considering he’s spending most of his time guarding Joel Embiid who just put a 40 spot on them last game.

We have a few things working for us here in terms of Marcus Morris. One, he’s finally scoring like we knew he could. 17, 21, 21 actual points in his last three games and that's led to 27+ DKP in three straight as well. With Al Horford potentially sitting, he has a much softer match-up than he would have if Horford plays.

UPDATE: Kevin Durant & LaMarcus Aldridge have been ruled out. That opens things up MORE for Johnson here. Original: I think more people will go back to this well than they should, but it’s worth mentioning because of how well Johnson has played lately. He had 28 DKP just last night and 22 the game prior. Generally we wouldn’t scoff at 22 DKP, but he’s still just 3.3K and 22 FP at that price provides us UPSIDE. It’s a nice pace up spot for Brooklyn here.

We don’t have much to offer here. This is the best spot on the board for centers. We just saw this match-up and yes it was overtime, but Embiid went for 70 FP. 70! It’s same match-up with the same guys in/out for CHA. Do you want to pay the premium is the only question at hand here.

Next question at the center position; should Embiid only be $200 less than Jokic and is that small of a discrepancy something we should take advantage of? You’ll get him at far less rostership, that I do know for sure.

With the Bulls down a gazillion players, Vucevic has a 30% USG rate and 1.24 FP/min. It’s not the easiest match-up and it’s not the best price (on DK at least).

This guy just puts up 40+ FP each and every night it seems. You can use him in tournaments or cash games and you know you have a safe floor. The Cavs are actually FAVORED here against the Bulls too!

And suddenly the Grizzlies are handing Adams minutes like Oprah does cars. He’s played 26+ in three of four and the only one he didn’t his team won by 80. He has two straight double-doubles and has a top three center match-up across the entire league.

I’m chasing points here…or am I? Maybe the bench is where Robinson will just thrive. We know he has a lot of defensive prowess, but he double-doubled to boot on Tuesday. GPPs only but in play.

I’d like to know if Claxton is starting here before fully committing to this play, but no LaMarcis Aldridge and Blake Griffin has been taken out of the rotation. Claxton had six points and nine rebounds across 21 minutes on Tuesday and with Durant and Aldridge out could be relied upon much more here.

With D’Angelo Russell ruled out, the Wolves will lean on Malik Beasley heavily once again. He’s scored 18 & 24 actual points the last two games and has made 4+ three’s in each outing. Obviously a tough spot against Utah, but in play for GPPs.