NBA DFS Playbook: December 15

Young has been in a GREAT rhythm of late and this heightened price tag is definitely warranted in my eyes. Over his last four games alone he’s averaged 58 DKP/game and now gets a Magic team ranking 28th in DRtg over the last two weeks. Young has been great everywhere and I’m willing to pay the piper to get him.

Charlotte’s defense has been significantly worse than everyone else's on a regular basis and the Spurs have this Murray guy who’s pretty dang good. Murray is coming off a triple-double and has topped 50 DKP five times over his last 10 games. The price has gotten up there, but there’s a reason for that. He’s very cheap on FanDuel.

With Tyler Herro missing shootaround this AM, Lowry might be a lone ranger tonight. With he, Butler and Adebayo off the floor, Lowry has a 25% usage rate and 1.1 FP/min average. He’s not cheap, but if Miami stays in this game without them, it’s on Lowry’s shoulders.

With Giannis placed in COVID-19 protocols, the Bucks are tonight’s popular stack of the night. With Giannis off the floor, Holiday has a 29.8% USG rate and 1.19 FP/min average. He’ll be popular at this mid 7K price tag. Lock and load in all formats.

With Luka Doncic out, Brunson is firmly in play. He’s not free by any means, but he’s been extremely productive when Doncic has been off the floor this year. He has a 25.4% USG rate and averages 1.06 FP/min with him this year. The Lakers are second in pace this year, so a nice boost there for Brunson as well.

After a two week absence, Beverley saw a full complement of minutes in just his third game back and looked good in said game, notching 27.5 DKP. He has 30+ FP upside which at this price, is fantastic. Denver has been a middle of the road defense over the last two weeks and that’s something Pat Bev can take advantage of.

I mean, the production has to come from somewhere and the Heat are down a LOT of guys. Vincent has actually started each of the last two games, playing 30+ minutes in each. He’s averaged 26 DKP/game over that span, which is right around 6x return. Now there is no Herro, I could definitely see the shot attempts rise.

Ingram is playing better than he has all year long right now as he’s topped 50 FP in three of his last five games and has put up less than 36 DKP once over his last 10 games. OKC is 29th in DRtg over the last two weeks, so Ingram should continue the success he’s had recently.

Rozier wasn’t at all limited in his return to action as he played 33 minutes and scored 20 actual and 32.5 DKP. The Spurs have been playing at a really nice pace of late, ranking 9th in the league over the last two weeks and this is a nice pace up spot for Rozier and the Hornets. Tournaments only, but with LaMelo Ball out, Rozier should take on a huge role here.

Even his head coach said about a week or two ago how good he’s starting to look and then he goes out and nearly triple-doubles while being a pest on defense as well. In three of his last four games he’s put up 43+ DKP and has put up 33+ in seven of nine. Pair that up with the fact that White gets the WORST defense in basketball tonight and we have ourselves a GREAT play!

This game is very interesting as Memphis catches the Blazers on the second leg of a back-to-back here. Bane has been fantastic since Ja Morant went out, the whole entire team has. Bane’s notched a 24.4% USG rate and 1.08 FP/min with Morant off the floor and has been great everywhere for Memphis.

No Giannis, the return of DiVincenzo on hold, no Lopez, and possibly no Middleton. This is a great spot for Connaughton because they’re going to need him offensively, which hasn’t always been the case in past years. He has two 30+ DKP outings over his last three and a third in four games is very possible here.

The Heat are down to 10 players, 9.5 when you consider Haslem as .5 because he’s 67 years old. Robinson has also been significantly better on the road this year and that could very well have a lot to do with the contract he signed and not having to live up to that hype in front of his home crowd. They’re going to need his shot to go down if they want to have a chance in this one. GPPs only.

As the great Justin Fensterman calls him, “the Sauce” has been very good of late. He’s still very much a bucket and I hope he’s dealt to a contender and given a chance at coming off the bench for a winner this year. Anyways, Ross has 15+ actual points in four of five games and has 25+ DKP in each of those contests. He’s played 30+ minutes in two of his last three, something he wasn’t doing earlier in the year. GPPs only, however, because of how streaky we know him to be.

I don’t love the price and I don’t love the production of the last game with Terry Rozier back, but LaMelo Ball is still out so there’s no reason to think the minutes and opportunity won’t continue to be there. Oubre, with Ball and Smith out, leads the team with a 27.1% USG and 1.1 FP/min.

UPDATE - HAS BEEN RULED OUT.

With Ja Morant off the floor this year, Brooks is tied with Jaren Jackson for the team lead in usage rate at 30.4% and is averaging 1.07 FP/min at the same time. Brooks has scored 21+ actual points in three of four games in each of those games, he’s put up 28+ DKP and has flashed a 40 FP ceiling over that span as well.

This is an interesting spot for Hield as he faces a Wizards defense ranking 24th in the league over the last two weeks. Hield’s been back in the rotation for 27+ minutes in three straight games and has put up 28+ DKP in two of three. Hield is only in play in tournaments, but is very affordable on DK.

I like Hardaway’s usage rate more, but I like what DFS has done without Luka Doncic in the last two games. Right behind THJ for highest FP/min increase is in fact Finney-Smith. Over the last six games, Finney-Smith has averaged 27.1 DKP/game and more than half of them were with Doncic. Solid value option here.

Look, the Heat have 10 guys and most of the guys they’re missing are wing players, which is why we figure Strus will be thrusted into a big role here. This is a guy in the Heat rotation to begin with, and three of the last four times he’s played at least 24 minutes he’s topped 22 DKP. 

Well, I guess he’s a PF now. He’s been incredible regardless of what position he’s listed at, averaging 58.1 DKP/game and we’ve said it for a minute now, but the Lakers NEED LBJ to be this good on a nightly basis. He should have no problem torching this Dallas team sans Luka Doncic despite having a tough defender in Dorian Finney-Smith on him here.

The only player on Dallas with a higher usage rate than Zinger when Doncic is out is a 60 minute sample of Boban. Zinger has a 29.5% USG and is averaging 1.35 FP/min without Doncic this year and has a great match-up against the Lakers tonight. If you’re not building a lineup with any player over 10K, Porzingis is a great starting point to a F&B build.

It’s been tough to really see Jackson’s ceiling because Memphis has been involved in so many blowouts lately, but this is one of the best environments on the board and should be filled with points. I highlighted it earlier, but Jackson’s tied with Dillon Brooks for the team lead in USG without Ja Morant, and leads the team outright in FP/min. He’s ELITE and this is finally a spot that should stay competitive so we can get a ceiling game.

The numbers have been down a bit, but Christian Wood and Eric Gordon have been ruled out, along with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. He has monster numbers with those guys out, but how competitive can this game stay without them? If this game blows out, will Tate be on the floor? Definitely a GPP only play.

I think one of the top values of the slate resides in HOU with Alparen Sengun. Christian Wood has been ruled out and Sengun had been ballin’ to begin with. He’s put up 30+ FP in two straight games while playing 23+ minutes in each. He has a MONSTER USG rate and FP/min average with Wood off the floor.

UPDATE: BAGLEY HAS BEEN RULED OUT. 

I mean..what needs to be said? He checks all the boxes. If you’re asking me who the top spend up of the slate is it’s this guy.

With Giannis out, as well as Brook Lopez as we know, Portis' role is going to be huge here. It could grow even more if Khris Middleton ends up being ruled out. He has a 25.8% USG and averages 1.26 FP/min with all of the Bucks that are out, off the floor this year.

The price is my lone drawback, but centers against Charlotte deserve this type of elevated pricing. Not to mention he's coming off 49 DKP his last time out. Poeltl hasn't consistently given us 40+ FP, but he's hit 30 in four of five and in seven of his last 10 games.

This is the Ray Kuhn special, because when he mentioned his name, I really started liking this play more and more. Hartenstein is a big time FP/min guy and with Serge Ibaka out, he'll get all the backup center minutes he can handle. If Paul George doesn't play, this game could blow out rather quickly too, putting Hartenstein in the line of fire there.

The guy just doesn't need a lot of time to go nuclear. He has back-to-back double-doubles, back-to-back games of 33+ DKP and has really done it all in limited time.

ADDED - He's not a very high usage player, but he's very close to minimum salary across the industry and is drawing the start for Orlando with Mo Bamba out. Okeke should be blowout proof here as well if this game gets out of hand. If it doesn't and stays close, he could approach 30 minutes.

ADDED - With news that both Christian Wood and Eric Gordon are out, Martin could see a big time role on Wednesday. With the four guys that are out for HOU, all four key players, there is a lot of opportunity for the 10 guys active, Martin being one of them. He averages .97 FP/min with them out this year.

ADDED - Richaun Holmes is DOUBT and Marvin Bagley has been ruled out due to health and safety protocols, paving the way for Metu to step into a prominent role. He averages .93 FP/min with them both off the floor. He could start and approach 30 minutes here.

ADDED - Okoro has been playing very well to begin with, but now Evan Mobley is ruled out and that opens things up for him even more. He's put up 23+ DKP in three straight games, including 16+ actual points in each. He's topped 30 minutes in each of those three games as well.

ADDED - GPPs only, but with Evan Mobley out, maybe we see some extra run from Love tonight. Yeah Dean Wade is starting, but that's fine. With Mobley off the floor this year, Love has a 23.9% USG and 1.33 FP/min average.

ADDED - Sooooooo with Middleton now out, Allen is FIRMLY in play. He's put up elite numbers with Giannis, Middleton and Lopez off the floor this year averaging 1.01 FP/min. He's close to a core play.