NBA DFS Playbook - December 23

GPP’s only with how he’s playing. He’s been underwhelming for sure. That said, Golden State is down a LOT of guys and without Iggy, Wiggins, Poole and Lee on the floor, Curry has a 33.9% USG rate and 1.2 FP/min.

The peripheral stats never took a hit but the scoring did. He was slumping from the field, but the last two games he has really gotten things going.  He has three triple-doubles in his last five games and scored 24+ points in each of the last two. He’s put up 48+ DKP in four of five games and has flashed a 70 point ceiling to boot.

The match-up for Ball here is rather good going up against a Denver team ranking 22nd in DRtg over the last two weeks. There is no doubt they’re struggling at that end. Insert the Hornets who rate out as the seventh highest offensive unit in the league over that span and you have quite the advantage. Ball has topped 48 DKP in four of his last six games.

I feel better about Morant in tournaments, but we’re not going to get him at this price point for much longer. In just his first game back, Morant put up 40 FP in 28 minutes with 16 points, six rebounds, eight assists, two steals and a block. Before the injury he was almost exclusively over 9K, so if he’s extended past 30 minutes here, it’s all systems go.

This one is tough because of his price point. On one hand, it’s viable if Kristaps Porzingis is out because who else is there to take shots and facilitate the offense? On the other hand, if Zinger plays, will Brunson be able to maximize his value? We’ll have to wait and get the Porzingis news before committing one way or another.

Coach Bud screwed a LOT of people the other day when they rested Holiday on the second leg of a back-to-back without telling anyone he was resting. He just didn’t play and everyone found out after roster lock. We have another b2b here…what’s going to happen? Hopefully we get word during the day.

Another questionable decision here. I know Rose is out, but RJ Barrett is back. If other players return and Walker isn’t starting, I really have no interest in him. If he is starting, he’s worth taking a look at.

The Pelicans are without two crucial members of their squad in NAW and Valanciunas and with those two off the floor, Graham has a 22% USG rate and averages one FP/min. He’s been better of late, putting up 36+ DKP in two of his last three games. He’ll be asked to take on a bigger role here with those key pieces out. The Magic are 26th in DRtg this year too.

Wright exceeded 5X his salary at 4.6K on Wednesday and everyone is still out for Thursday, putting him firmly in play again. The kicker is he’s $400 cheaper on this slate of games! Wright should see all the minutes he can handle once again after playing 38 on Wednesday.

Generally I wouldn’t pay much mind to Ingram at this price but there are multiple things at play here. First off, he’s absolutely BALLIN’. The floor over his last 10 games has been 36 DKP, has topped 40+ in seven of eight and has gone over 50 in four of his eight. Secondly and maybe most importantly, both NAW and Valanciunas are OUT. He has a 34.3% USG rate and 1.13 FP/min without them on the floor this year.

The role that best suits Herro is the one where he’s coming off the bench and absolutely torching second units. He returned from injury last time out and scored 26 actual points in 21 minutes as well as 37 DKP. He should be extended more here against DET as long as they keep this game competitive. This is the first time in recent memory his price tag has dipped below 7K on DK. 

He’s looked good since entering the starting lineup putting up 13+ actual and 25+ DKP in three straight games. With Pat Bev and Ant Edwards off the floor this year, Beasley sees a 4% USG bump – the largest on the team – to 23.9%. It’s a tournament play only because Utah is a very good team at home and this *COULD* get ugly.

With the Pistons realizing they should get some of their younger players time on the floor, Diallo has seen his minutes sky rocket. He’s topped 30 in two straight games in each of those contests, he’s taken at least 10 shots and has put up 25+ DKP. He’s still just 4.4K and now is playing without not only Jerami Grant, but Cade Cunningham.

Jon Impemba & I were theorizing what the Warriors were going to do on the wing with basically everyone out. Poole, Wiggins, Iguodala and Lee. All out. They could use Moses Moody there, but they haven’t really trusted him for long stretches this season. Maybe a glimpse at what they’ll do has happened the last two games with Payton playing 20 and 18 minutes. In each of those games he’s topped 25 DKP and there’s really no reason to think he won’t be extended here. They have NO wing help! GPPs only unless we find out he’s starting.

I said how the Warriors hadn’t really extended Moody yet and that was kind of a fib. He played 25 minutes two games ago and put up 28 DKP. He started the game prior to that too, so he’s been more familiar with the first unit of late. He’s a punt and if he’s in the starting lineup, he could be worth a dart throw.

Without Anthony Davis on the floor, LBJ has dominated everybody. He has posted a 30.2% USG rate and 1.4 FP/min. Four times over his last seven games he’s put up at least 59 DKP as well. He’s just in such an insane groove right now.

If he plays the second leg of the teams back-to-back I have a lot of interest with Giannis still sidelined. Plain and simple.

You know who continues to be vastly under priced on essentially every slate? Josh Hart. Now Hart is playing without two high usage players in NAW and Valanciunas. Without those two on the floor this year, he has a 1.26 FP/min average. He’s not a high usage player, but he sees a very solid 2.5% USG bump without them too.

Am I expecting Reddish to go absolutely nuclear once again on Thursday? No, but he gave us a glimpse as to what he’s capable of. The Hawks are depleted and will lean on Reddish and his young, fresh legs on the second leg of a back-to-back. Expectations are that a LOT of people will be chasing the points and I can’t blame anyone for wanting to, considering the roster is going to look like it did on Wednesday.

If he plays, he’s 100% a viable option, even at this elevated price point. It’s only a 55 minute sample, but with who’s out for Dallas as it stands, Zinger has a 30.8% USG rate and 1.5 FP/min this year. Milwaukee’s rim protection these days are Boogie Cousins and Mamu. Not exactly shaking in my boots here.

EVERYONE is going to look to fit Draymond Green tonight. He was 5% without Poole and Wiggins the other day and went for 50 FP. Now, they’re without those same guys + more. The rest of the field is going to go right to John Collins. The pivot is 100% Bridges who comes into this game in a nice groove. He’s topped 40 FP in three of four games and in the one he didn’t, he scored 26 actual and 36 FP against one of the best defenses in the league. Bridges is rollin’ right now and has 50 FP upside against Denver who ranks in the bottom 10 in DRtg over the last two weeks.

The numbers don’t lie when it comes to Green. They tell us to play him when Poole and Wiggins are off the floor. Thing is, it’s now Poole, Wiggins, Lee and Iguodala, so the ball will only be in his hands more here. Last time out was his first triple-double of the year and with all of them off the floor, he has a chance to repeat here.

It was a slow start to Wednesday’s game for Collins but he got going in a big way in the second half and ended up with a 28 point double-double, good for 51.5 DKP. Over the last two years when Capela and Young have been off the floor, Collins has been the man time and time again. He has a 28.1% USG rate and averages 1.25 FP/min.

Johnson’s been impressive lately notching two straight double-doubles, 30+ minutes, 13+ shots in four straight and 32+ DKP in three straight. This is a pace up spot for the Spurs and the Lakers are reeling, losing three straight games and are without Anthony Davis on the interior. Johnson’s a strong GPP option.

The Warriors have been raving about Otto Porter lately and he’s starting to really turn it out. He had 31 DKP in 29 minutes last time out, notching 12 points, five rebounds, two assists, four blocks and a steal. The Warriors are without Wiggins, Poole, Lee and Iguodala and don’t have a back-to-back to worry about. We should see him push for 30 minutes again and play an intricate role.

If and when he can stay out of foul trouble, McDaniels has serious success. He’s a crazy long dude who can stretch the floor, rebound and wreak havoc on the defensive end of the ball. The TWolves are decimated by COVID-19 at the forwards spot and McDaniels has played 30+ minutes in two straight for a reason.

It was definitely not a great feeling seeing your Jokic lineups burn up in flames, but he and the rest of the starters were benched in the fourth quarter and didn’t come back into the game. I’m ready to move past that game and onto Charlotte, which is the premier spot for centers in DFS.

Embiid is going to draw the likes of Okongwu and Dieng, maybe even John Collins too. Advantage Embiid in all three cases. He’s coming off a 72 FP game and on the year has a 35.5% USG rate and 1.55 FP/min average.

It’s risky because he’s all over the place in terms of production, but something you can definitely look to in tourneys. Poeltl has twice topped 48 DKP over his last five games and the three mixed in between were 24, 30 and 16. The Lakers are 22nd in rebounding rate over the last two weeks.

Boogie has looked sharp as long as he’s stayed out of foul trouble, especially in the last two games. He’s played 27 and 28 minutes and has put up 41 and 33 DKP respectively. He’s scoring double figures in each and has averaged 10 boards as well. Dallas is one of the best center match-ups on the board and Milwaukee is reeling at center.

Now that he’s getting regular rotational minutes, Yurtseven has been a monster. He fouls a whole lot and is very erratic on the floor, but he’s ALWAYS around the ball. He has 12+ rebounds in three straight games and hasn’t played more than 22 minutes in any of those games. That’s all he needs to smash at this current price tag.

All of that to arrive here. At the goat. The Hernangoat. Jonas Valanciunas is out, which should thrust a heavy workload onto Hernangomez’s shoulders. With JoVal and NAW off the floor this year – both are out – Hernangomez has a 25.5% USG and a team-high 1.32 FP/min. He’s the first player I’m plugging into my lineups today.

ADDED It has been, well, disappointing to say the least this year, but one thing we saw earlier in the year is Dinwiddie can really run a team when the offense flows through him. He's looked lost with Beal active, but both he and KCP are now in health & safety protocols. With them off the floor, Dinwiddie gets a 4% USG bump to 25.3% and averages 1.03 FP/min.

ADDED Kuzma's numbers pop without Beal and KCP on the floor as both have entered the protocols today. Kuz has a 24.3% USG and averages 1.13 FP/min. His price on FD is SO affordable and one I really want to attack.

ADDED LeVert has some MONSTER numbers without Sabonis and Brogdon on the floor this year and BOTH guys have been ruled out. It's only a 42 minute sample, but he has a 39.9% USG and 1.4 FP/min average. He's in a massive pace up spot against a bottom-10 defense.

ADDED With Sabonis and Brogdon out, a lot of focus will turn to Turner offensively. He's notched a 22.5% USG rate and has averaged 1.5 FP/min without them this year, both elite numbers. He's in a massive pace up spot against a bottom-10 defense.

ADDED It hasn't been smooth sailing for Duarte, but he's begun to turn it around in his last two games. He has scored 15 and 17 actual points in the last two and has put up 30+ DKP to boot. Without Brodgon & Sabonis he could really take on a big role offensively, which we know he's capable of doing.

ADDED Who will start for Sabonis is the question on everyone's mind and I suspect it's going to be Brissett. He's been entrenched in the rotation to begin with and has played 20+ minutes in eight straight games. He's very cheap on DK and is min salary on Yahoo!

ADDED I mean, they have nobody else lol. Cunningham, Lee, Hayes all OUT. CoJo started two games and played 24+ minutes in each. He'll be pushed past the 30 minute marker here without a doubt.

ADDED He let us down last game, sure, but that was LAST game. This is TODAY. More members of Minnesota have entered the health & safety protocol, namely KAT. This presents Nowell a big opportunity that he should have even in a blowout situation. He has a 27.8% USG – which leads the team – and 1.17 FP/min average with KAT, Beverley, Edwards, Vanderbilt off the floor.

ADDED That FD price is……….ATTACKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!

ADDED With everyone in protocols or out for DET, Frank Jackson has been ruled in and will be heavily involved, especially offensively. Jackson has been a spark at times as he's scored 18+ actual points in three of his last seven contests. We need him to score him to have any true GPP value.

ADDED With all these Pistons off the floor, Trey Lyles has a 26.7% USG rate and averages over 1 FP/min. We could see Garza start, but we've seen him get in early foul trouble when he got the call earlier in the year. In the two games that Stewart was suspended for earlier in the year, Lyles played 22 & 24 minutes.

ADDED Karl-Anthony Towns has just been placed in COVID-19 protocols, putting Naz Reid on the front line for us. With KAT, Pat Bev, Edwards and Vanderbilt off the floor, Reid has a 25.5% USG and 1.06 FP/min.