NBA DFS Playbook - December 28

GPP’s only at this price point, much like it’s been. GSW will be without Green and Poole here and without them, Curry has a 35.7% USG and averages 1.59 FP/min this year.

Walker is fresh off the Eastern Conference Player of the week award after sitting on the bench for the last month. Pretty cool. There’s no denying he looks reenergized and has put up 40+ DKP in four straight games. He’s flashed a 70 FP ceiling while also putting up a triple-double. He has a great match-up against a Minnesota team decimated by COVID-19 protocol.

Update: Darius Garland is OUT. Rubio is an elite mid-tier option. Original: Depending on how things shake out for the Cavs leading up to lock will gauge my interest in Rubio. If guys return, it’ll be harder to spend 6.4K on DK for him if he’s not starting.

A sub 5% Nowell won a lot of people money on Monday as he scored 29 actual and 45.5 DKP. The Wolves could potentially be getting Patrick Beverley back, which would hurt a bit, but they’re so depleted and I couldn’t imagine Beverley gets a full allotment of minutes his first game back after he’s questionable for conditioning reasons in the first place!

The Magic are still hurting in their back court and not due to only COVID-19, but to injuries as well. We know Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs are both out, leaving plenty of run for Hampton in this spot. He played 32 minutes last time out and had 14 points, five assists, one rebound and two steals. With those guys, plus Okeke and Ross off the floor this year, Hampton has a 22.5% USG rate and averages 1.19 FP/min.

I’m not in love with the price, but I like Wiggins’ 24% USG rate when Poole and Green are off the floor this year. He is making his return from the COVID-19 list, so let’s make sure we know he’s not limited before fully committing to this play.

Herro’s last game numbers are skewed because he was ejected, but with Lowry and Adebayo out, Herro’s number is going to get called on a lot here. He actually leads the Heat in USG at 32.7% and is second in FP/min at 1.22 with them off the floor. Over the last two weeks, Washington is 27th in DRtg as a team, so Herro should take full advantage of that fact.

I don’t love jump shooters on back to backs, but Beasley has a few things working in his favor. The Knicks defensive back court of Walker & Fournier is HORRIBLE and is something he can take full advantage of. The Wolves also have both of these games on MON & TUE at home, so no travel and a full night of rest in his own home. They’re down all of their top guys and Beasley should approach 40 minutes again.

The Lakers are hurting in terms of guys in H&S protocols, but they got a nice spark from Monk in their last game as he played 35 minutes and went 8-for-13 from the field with 20 actual and 35 DKP. The likelihood of the Lakers continuing to play small is high and that benefits Monk tremendously.

The Heat are without both Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo and when they’re both off the floor, Butler has a 29% USG and averages 1.4 FP/min. Washington has been a bottom-five defense for quite some time and Butler played a full allotment of minutes in his first game back from injury. 

Everyone is out for the Raptors and although a couple of reinforcements could be on the way, we’re still unsure if they’re going to play and if they do, how conditioned they are to play. Watanabe played 37 minutes last time out and went 11-for-20 from the field, scoring 26 points and 13 rebounds. Two of the last three games he’s played 26+ minutes in he’s notched a double-double.

Although Wiggins and Iguodala are back, Poole and Lee are still out and now Draymond Green is as well. The Warriors have looked good with Porter in the starting lineup and there’s no reason to think he couldn’t start here once again. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 29.2 DKP across 26.3 MPG.

He continues to dodge foul trouble and be a great option for the Timberwolves across the board. He’s now poured in 28+ DKP in three straight games, all three he’s topped 36 minutes in. The Wolves have players clearing protocol, but none are expected to play so it’ll be much of the same as it’s been and as it was on Monday.

The minutes have been a great sight and so has the scoring. He’s played 26+ minutes in four straight games and has double-digit points in four of his last five. He’s put up at least 25 DKP in five straight and 28+ in four straight. KCP is still out and Beal is questionable and if he doesn’t return, Avdija could be a nice, cheap option.

If Okoro doesn’t return, Valentine’s in for another big workload. Especially considering now the Cavs will have Ricky Rubio shift over and play PG with Darius Garland entering the protocols.

This line opened at 12.5 and has moved to 14. If you think there is a chance Orlando can keep this close enough to get Giannis 30 minutes, he can break the slate and put up 80. I’m not sure the Magic in current form can, but crazier things have happened.

If you don’t think that MIL/ORL stays close, LAL/HOU is a 224 total with a 5.5 spread, featuring the two teams playing at the fastest pace. LBJ has to do it all right now as he’s averaging 36.4 minutes and 57.7 DKP/game over his last five contests. Elite in all formats with Anthony Davis still out.

Is it weird to see Dort listed at PF? Absolutely. Either way, he’s in play with how impacted OKC has been with COVID-19 in the last two days. SAC is 24th in DRtg over the last two weeks and Dort already scored 22 actual and 36 DKP against them once this year. Dort is a fantastic GPP option at this price point. He has a 24% USG with all of the guys listed out, out.

The Lakers elected to play small ball and use LBJ, Stanley Johnson and Anthony in the front court last game and Anthony had one of his best all around games of the year. He almost put up 50 DKP and if they elect to use this strategy again, he could once again put up a crooked number. Some revenge in this game as well.

With Draymond out, Jokic’s path to another dominant performance is a lot easier. Draymond, although a lot shorter, is simply one of the best interior defenders in basketball. Bar none. Joker has put up back-to-back 20-20 games and in each has topped 65 DKP. Obviously possible here once again.

I don’t love the price point, but if Brandon Ingram sits here, Valanciunas is going to have the offense run through him. With Ingram, NAW and Lewis off the floor, JoVal has a 1.49 FP/min average. That’s insane. Best suited for GPPs in my opinion.

I’ve been screaming from the rooftops how good this dude is from a FP/min perspective and he drew the start last time out and dominated. He had a 16 point, 15 rebound double-double and went for 36 DKP in 33 minutes.

What Gafford has going for him here is that Montrezl Harrell has been placed in Covid-19 protocols, leaving him as the last man standing in the Wizards front court. On the year, Gafford’s averaging 1.04 FP/min, so give him 30 here (aka staying out of foul trouble) and see what he can do.

Naz Reid has been upgraded to questionable so we’ll see if he’s going to play here. If he doesn’t, fire up Knight again because we saw his massive upside on Monday. He’ll be one of the chalkier plays in the league 

ADDED - With Trent clearing protocols and being listed as probable, he should be thrusted in massive minutes considering who's in/out for Toronto. Elite play if he's not limited at all.

ADDED - I definitely do not love the DraftKings price, but he cleared protocols and is expected to play here and considering how decimated they are, he's going to play BIG minutes and be the focal point of an offense he's already the focal point of. 

ADDED - Poku out, Favors out, Robinson-Earl out. The Thunder are hurting up front. Insert Isaiah Roby who started 34 games for them last year and averaged 23.4 minutes/game during that span. He is in line to start and take on as many minutes as he can out of necessity here. Min salary across the industry.

ADDED - With Draymond Green out, we could see Looney extended here. He played 28 minutes on Christmas and was a basket shy of a double-double and that's definitely in his cards. I think he'll be a little under owned in a match-up with Jokic and you could definitely stack them both if you wanted.

ADDED - The price on Y! & DK stand out like a sore thumb. Not playing him on FD, however. Last game he went out & played 30 minutes, scoring 24 actual and 33 DKP & that was before the Thunder were decimated by COVID-19. This game has one of the best totals on the board too.

ADDED - Before committing to Dinwiddie I was awaiting the Bradley Beal news. Beal is out & that means load up Dinwiddie! With Beal, Harrell & KCP off the floor, Dinwiddie has a 24% USG and averages 1.2 FP/min.

ADDED - This could be a ceiling game for Kuzma here. Washington is REALLY depleted and Kuzma has been good with these guys off the floor. With Harrell, Beal & KCP alone off the floor, he sees a 7% USG bump up to 26% while averaging 1.14 FP/min.

ADDED - Now that he's been ruled out, we should expect Reid to take on a pretty substantial role within the offense. Considering everyone else on the team played last night, he might have the freshest legs on the team.

ADDED - Temple has a VERY low floor, even if he plays 30 minutes, but he showed that he can flash 30 FP upside at times. There's no Ingram or Hart here, as well as NAW or Lewis. He's being forced into 30 mins here whether we like it or not.

ADDED - Min price on DK & Y! and firmly in play there. He's starting and is on a “minutes limit”. We all know what that means. That being said, he doesn't need 35 minutes to hit/exceed value at that price point.

ADDED - Martin steps into the starting lineup with late breaking news that Max Strus is OUT. Martin played 29 minutes in his return to the lineup last time out and put up 27 DKP. He's a nice pairing with Butler considering this is a game Jimmy should be on triple-double watch.