NBA DFS Playbook: January 1

Even with Kevin Durant back, Harden was fantastic offensively. He notched a triple-double and scored 33+ points for a third straight game. He’s put up 70+ DKP in three straight games and gets a match-up against a Clippers team that is decimated by injuries and COVID-19. GPPs only because I’m scared of a blow out due to LAC playing a back-to-back.

*Checks price*..Yup. Still under 5K. Fire him up. The Bulls are still going to be without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso and over the last two games, White has found his shot. He’s scored 17 and 24 actual and has poured in 42+ DKP in each of them. He should continue to start and play 30+ minutes and has a great match-up against a bottom 10 defense over the last two weeks.

As long as nobody returns for the Pistons, Walton is firmly in play. He’s started each of the last two games and has topped 30+ minutes in each. He’s looked really good as a passer, setting up his teammates well, topping six assists in each game. He’s been a big factor on the defensive end as well, notching four blocks and three steals. 

Denver is down a LOT of guys right now as Monte Morris has entered the health & safety protocols. Campazzo played 32 minutes in a start last time out and put up 26 DKP He has a bit more scoring upside, but he’ll make his hay in the passing department. This game environment fits his playstyle like a glove, as Houston is the third fastest team in the league in terms of pace & and 29th in DRtg.

I think spending up for Beal is a contrarian play because I hate the price point. That said, WAS is without their top four point-guards and he has a chance to once again approach a double-double. It’s a GPP spend up only, most likely.

Look. I get it. He’s 7.7K on DK and that’s a price we’d never in a million years pay…if his team wasn’t decimated by injuries and COVID. The thing is, they are. He’s put up 39.75 & 63.25 DKP. He’s taken 19 shots in each game too. He’s a monster on the defensive end when he’s given the run and he’s had 2+ steals in four straight games and in two of them, he’s had 5 steals. I’m willing to pay the piper if all the Pistons remain out.

White had a very solid game running the Spurs’ offense, but left early and missed some time due to a laceration. He finished one assist shy of a double-double and put up 33.5 DKP in just 24 minutes. That’s the type of upside he has, especially with Dejounte Murray out of the lineup. With Murray off the floor, White has a 22.7% USG rate and averages 1.14 FP/min.

Denver is hurting due to injuries and COVID and Barton has started to play very well of late. He definitely hit a tough patch, but is getting back on track and has topped 30 DKP in three straight games. He could easily do it a fourth consecutive time with Houston on the docket, playing a back-to-back. The Nuggets are down key pieces in Morris, Porter Jr. and Jeff Green and without those guys, he has a 27.7% USG and averages 1.06 FP/min.

Green is definitely a GPP play as we have learned by now, he’s very inconsistent. He came into Friday’s contest ROLLIN’ and simply didn’t perform well against the Heat after getting into early foul trouble. That said, Denver doesn’t really have any healthy guards and anyone that can stay in front of him. Green’s averaged 30.8 DKP/game over his last three and has GPP appeal at a sub 5K price point.

With Frank Jackson going down, the Pistons turned to Stanley to start the second half. He did virtually nothing good BUT he took 10 shots. He made just two, but the 10 shots were encouraging and they needed players to shoot. IF and I mean IF he’s starting, there is mild interest considering his minimum salary.

Any limitation KD may have had is no longer. That said, do I want to pay 11.4K when I didn’t want to pay 11.2K? Not so sure. Harden has been performing at a level few in the league are, which obviously limits Durant’s upside in the assist and rebound categories. GPPs for me.

We can pretty much take what we said about Diallo and insert here. If nobody on DET clears protocols, Bey is an elite option in all formats.

I love how Morris’ price was 6.3 yesterday on DK, drops 36 DKP, and here we are on Saturday at 5.8K. He’s scored 20+ actual in five straight and 35+ DKP in each of those games as well. If this game stays competitive – 12 point spread – Morris will be a big reason as to why. If it doesn’t, well, 25 minutes or so seem to be the cap. Better suited for GPPs.

The Spurs will be without Murray, Walker and McDermott here and possibly Bates-Diop. Vassell has had a role with the Spurs all year long and this could be his biggest opportunity of the year even if Bates-Diop plays. He can play SG through PF and is a solid GPP option under 4K.

Just looking at how things played out for LAC on Friday, Coffey played 28 minutes and played the final 16 minutes of the game. Coffey has seen an uptick in minutes lately, playing 25+ in three straight and 23+ in five straight. He’s put up 19+ DKP in each of those 5 games and has flashed 26 DKP upside over that span. The kicker is he’s 3.2K.

Honorable mention to Winslow because if this game is a blowout, he could top 20 minutes here and we know he can fill it up if he does top 20. The front court is hurting to begin with and if Serge Ibaka sits out/is limited on the back-to-back, he could see even more time

It was one of DeRozan’s worst shooting performances of the year going 8-for-24 from the field, yet he put up 46 DKP, scored 28 actual and hit a game winning three. He now faces a Washington defense ranking in the bottom-10 in the league over the last two weeks. Without Ball, Caruso and Pat Williams this year, DDR has a 33.2% USG and averages 1.26 FP/min.

No doubt this was a baaaad performance from Johnson, but he gets to leave it in the past and come back the very next day in a dreamy match-up against the Pistons. Johnson had put up 25+ DKP in eight straight games before this outing and with Dejounte Murray off the floor, he has a 20.6% USG and averages .94 FP/min. Under 6K is a price tag I’m willing to look at in GPPs.

I don’t love the fact that he came off the bench for the first time all year, but I like the fact that he still played 25 minutes. Factor in that Alperen Sengun is expected to sit this one out, Tate could grab allll the backup four minutes and we know he can play SF as well.

Yeah, I mean, yeah. The ONLY downside is the price is WILD at 12.6K. Still going to be one of the best spend up options on the board.

Vooch has been extremely good of late, averaging 51.9 DKP/game over his last four. With no Lonzo Ball on the floor, Vucevic has been a vacuum averaging 17 RPG over that same four game stretch. Washington has not only been a bottom-10 defensive unit over the last two weeks but a bottom-10 rebounding team as well.

This could be one of those ceiling games Poeltl gives us every so often. He only played 24 minutes last night because of the blowout and hasn't been extended much at all lately. He has  a less than 20 FP floor but a near 50 FP ceiling as well. GPPs only.

The risk is the foul trouble, which he’s been able to avoid in the last two games. He’s put up 35 & 36 DKP in each of the last two games when he’s been staying on the floor. GPPs.

With Aldridge returning to the lineup, the Nets elected to go big against the 76ers and they started Claxton next to Aldridge, with Durant at SF. He looked good, falling just one rebound shy of a double-double and put up 29.75 DKP, his fifth straight with at least 27.

He’s not going to shoot 1-of-10 again. He’s not. He put up 22.75 DKP shooting 1-of-10, let’s not overlook that fact. As long as nobody clears protocol – and barring he stays out of foul trouble – Garza is going to play all the minutes he can handle.

ADDED - Looking at how Utah's rotations played out last night after Hassan Whiteside left the game, Rudy Gay & Royce O'Neale were up front when Rudy Gobert wasn't on the floor. Gay played 25 mins and it wouldn't surprise me if he were extended here once again and is SO cheap across the industry.

ADDED - Starting at PG tonight and is near min salary across the industry. They could just use Derrick White at PG, but they haven't done that this year and clearly aren't starting tonight. With Murray, Walker, McDermott out and possibly Bates-Diop too, the Spurs are THIN. In each of the last two games Jones' has played 20+ minutes, he's put up 21 & 30 DKP.

ADDED - With Draymond Green still out and studying the Warriors rotations, Bjelica has played backup center the past few games. With a tough match-up against Rudy Gobert, Kevon Looney COULD get in early foul trouble and that would spring Bjelica from the bench early and often. He's a walking tournament play, but one that COULD be fruitful on this small slate.

ADDED - The only concern here is if there's some type of minutes restriction. With Javonte Green out, Jones could find himself playing upwards of 30 minutes. He's been limited, however. The difference tonight is he's in the starting lineup.