NBA DFS Playbook - January 6

So Morant, who’s gone for 48+ DKP in four straight games, gets a $500 price deduction on DK. Got it. All I needed to hear. The downside is how in the world do the Pistons keep this game close? They were blown out of the gym on Wednesday and are now 12.5 point dogs the very next day. The Pistons are 6-7 ATS (against the spread) on the road. Makes it hard to trust Morant in cash. Maybe there’s a glimmer of hope because Desmond Bane is out.

The same thing can be said for Cunningham that was said for Morant. Can this game stay close? If it does, Cunningham can have a really solid game here. He, like Morant, saw his price tag drop from their last game and Cunningham had 33 DKP in just 26 minutes on Wednesday. He has 50 FP upside because he can do EVERYTHING on the basketball court. GPPs only.

Rinse and repeat. Another price drop. This comes after two straight 40 FP games, one in a blowout and one in a competitive setting. This game is an 11-point spread and is not the most appealing and one that *could* get out of hand for sure. With Ayton, McGee, Crowder and Kaminsky off the floor this year, CP3 averages 1.2 FP/min. Hope the Clippers can stay in this game long enough for him to give us the upside.

With Paul George out, the Clippers need people to step up. At times, it’s been Bledsoe and other times he’s struggled. For example, he scored 27 actual and 46 FP against Brooklyn and then the very next game, in a good spot against Minnesota, he was 0-3 from the field and his team got blown out. He averages 1.13 FP/min without PG13, Kennard and Hartenstein this year as well as a 24% USG rate.

Update: Curry, Green & Toscano-Anderson are out. Original: With Stephen Curry doubtful, it’s likely that Payton starts at point-guard. He’s been starting even with Jordan Poole back, as Poole likely gets used to the sixth man role he’s going to play with Klay Thompson returning. Payton had a double-double last time out and has put up 23.5+ DKP in eight straight games. He’s put up 30 in back-to-back games and with Curry off the floor, he averages .99 FP/min.

I figured Hayes would be someone DET would like to keep on the floor in blowouts or competitive games because he needs the reps, but that was not the case on Wednesday. If you think DET can keep this game close, we should consider Hayes. He’s shown flashes of him being a player in this league and does a little of everything. He’s shooting the ball very poorly this year, but the last two games, albeit just 10 shot attempts, he’s knocked down 50% from the floor.

This is something I’m only willing to deploy in GPPs. I’m not in love with Brown on DK at 9K with the Celtics at basically full strength. Still, Brown scored 30 actual and 45 DKP on Wednesday which puts him a 5x return. We love attacking the Knicks backcourt and Brown, with Tatum healthy, he has a 31.3% USG rate and 1.13 FP/min as well.

Look, if the game stays competitive, Booker can break the slate. Twice in four games he’s put up 50+ FP but in the two blowouts, he shot 7-for-26 and only played 29 minutes in the other one. The spread is 10.5, so I’d limit my exposure to tournaments incase of a blowout. He’s been very popular lately and on this small slate, I expect more of the same.

I know the FP/min without Curry isn’t great, but Wiggins has been very good lately. He’s put up 30+ DKP in five straight games and as I just alluded to, Curry is likely out here. Wiggins has been tremendous on both sides of the ball, averaging 21.3 points, 2.0 steals and 36.1 DKP over the last four games. Without Curry this year, he has a 27.7% USG rate.

If Curry sits, it’s likely Poole slides back into the starting lineup but even if he doesn’t, he has GPP winning upside if the shot starts falling. When Stephen Curry has been off the floor this year, Poole has been a monster, notching a 32.3% USG rate and 1.09 FP/min.

Even with everyone back, Hart still put up 37 DKP and double-doubled. He’s now double-doubled in three of his last four games and has flashed 55+ DKP upside. The Pelicans have a good chance at staying competitive in this game if Stephen Curry sits this one out.

The Knicks are getting last years version of Barrett here lately and boyyyy does he look good. With Rose and Walker off the floor this season too, he’s the team leader in USG% at 27.2 while averaging 1.03 FP/min. Yeah, a higher USG than Julius Randle is correct. Even at this slightly elevated price tag, I like him in all formats. He’s providing us a nice floor + upside as well.

Instead of Quickley or McBride or Grimes being extended, Thibs reverted back to what he knows. That’s Alec Burks. Burks looked sharp over his 35+ minutes, which was now the fourth game in a row he’s topped 24+ minutes. Burks has given us 30+ FP in three of four games and his price has dipped down to 5.9K to boot. Sneaky sneaky.

I think the most encouraging thing about Bridges lately is that he’s actually shooting the basketball. I probably just jinxed him, I know, but he’s taken 11+ shots in three straight games and has scored double-figures in each as well. The popular choice here is Cam Johnson and generally mine too, but Bridges is cheaper and will check in with less draft percentage if I had to guess.

Each of the last two games Draymond Green has missed, he’s put up 23+ minutes and flashed a 30+ FP ceiling in that game too. The kicker here is there is no Stephen Curry, which means Iggy, when on the floor, could be the Warriors de facto point-guard.

It’s not a great match-up against Al Horford, but Randle looked fantastic in his return scoring 30 points while grabbing 16 rebounds. We know both Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose are off the floor and those two operate the best with the ball, but so does Randle. With them off the floor this year, he has a 26.9% USG rate and averages 1.2 FP/min. He’s a contrarian spend up today.

If the Clippers are to have any shot here, Morris is going to have to play a big role. Before the last game, Morris has scored 20+ actual in five straight games and put up 35+ DKP in each of them as well. One of those games came against the stout PHX defense as he scored 24 and grabbed 11 rebounds, so the proof of success is already here for us.

If Porter Jr. starts, he’s mighty appealing without the likes of Curry, Green and Toscano-Anderson active. He’s averaging .91 FP/min without them on the floor this year and has flashed massive upside, even at 5.5K on DK. We’ll see if Porter plays because he’s apparently dealing with a left foot injury himself.

I mean, what’s not to like? Jones has been extremely consistent each and every time out, putting up 27+ DKP in five straight games and although the shot attempts went down with everyone healthy, he’s still flashing upside at this price. He’s going to play 30+ minutes here and can fill up the stat sheet offensively and defensively.

I don’t hate this spot against a Warriors team playing on a back-to-back without Curry, Green and Toscano-Anderson. He’ll see a lot of Kevon Looney who he’ll have a distinct advantage against. During the 225 minutes NOLAs starting lineup has played together, JoVal has averaged a 27% USG rate and 1.25 FP/min.

What does PHX do with Smith? They just signed Bismack Biyombo to a contract for the remainder of the year? Is McGee available? Is SMITH available? Whatever the case may be, Biyombo finished for the Suns last game, a game Smith was available to return in.

Nicolas Batum is back here but if Ivica Zubac sits out again, Ibaka should get closer to 20 minutes here. He’s played 18+ in three straight and has put up 22+ DKP in two of those three. We’ll wait and see what officially happens with Zubac, however.

WHO IS CHASING? That is the question. How much can we trust Biyombo here? He’s going to play as he’s played 18 and 29 minutes in each of the first two games. The question is how much? He closed the game for PHX last time out and went nuclear putting up 38 DKP. I don’t expect that again, but we know he can fill it up if he’s getting the run.

The other day, when Draymond Green sat, Looney played 31 minutes and has 27 DKP, which at 3.9K, is really solid. Center stinks tonight, straight up. It stinks. I wouldn’t be opposed to spending down and punting the position with a guy like Looney who likely sees 30 minutes again as long as he can stay out of foul trouble.

ADDED - Since the news came out it wasn't ONLY Curry missing but Green and JTA as well, I have more interest in the Pelicans than I did earlier. Ingram's ability to stuff the box score and be a usage monster could be on display here against a weaker defense than it is when Draymond's active.

ADDED - Even if Dillon Brooks does return, it's unlikely Kyle Anderson does, which paves the way for decent run from Clarke. He's been getting that run of late as he's topped 23 minutes in each of the last three games and has topped 27 DKP in each, notching 32+ in two of the three.