NBA DFS Playbook: February 7

He has been shooting the ball much better lately, that’s for sure. 48% from the field and from three over his last four games. The price has also come down to a respectable tag, but can OKC keep this game competitive enough – especially if Lu Dort sits – to get Curry somewhere close to 35 minutes? That’s the question.

I don’t think the price is very forgiving, but the Bulls defense is just not the same without Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball. They’re 27th in DRtg over the last two weeks and CP3 can take advantage of that. He has double-digit assists in nine of 11 games and has averaged 52.7 DKP/game over his last five.

GPP play, but that’s it. We’ve seen the highest of highs and the lowest of lows lately.

It’s a really nice pace up spot for the Raptors as they travel to Charlotte to take on the Hornets. This game features a 225.5 total and it’s a 2-point spread. FVV has been really good lately and yet, his price continues to decrease. We know he’s going to play a LOT of minutes and over the last eight games, FVV has scored at least 40 FP. His floor is VERY secure.

Without Bradley Beal this year, Dinwiddie has been a great fantasy producer. He’s averaged 1.12 FP/min and has a 25.5% USG rate to boot. Miami is not a great match-up, but Dinwiddie does a little of everything without Beal as evident in their Milwaukee game just two matches ago. Plenty of interest in Dinwiddie at this price point.

I mean, I don’t love the match-up and he’s no longer free, but the volume has been there and will be especially if Lu Dort gets ruled out. I’m not exactly sure how OKC keeps this game close if he is ruled out, but Mann should see plenty of time even in a blowout. 

UPDATE - Kemba Walker has been ruled out. Makes me like Burks even more. ORIGINAL - Who knows what Thibs is doing anymore, but Burks has been playing a bunch lately. He’s topped 26 minutes in 2 of 3 and Kemba Walker is barely playing 20 minutes and Immanuel Quickley was completely taken out of the rotation last game. Burks is very cheap, the cheapest he’s been since November. Burks was drafted by Utah and was oft injured during his time there, so this could be a redemption game. Utah’s been a bottom-10 defense since Rudy Gobert’s injury.

It’s interesting to see Booker’s price dropping and I get it, DeAndre Ayton takes away a little bit from Booker always getting his offense. But we haven’t seen him below 9K very often. Since January 22nd, in fact, he’s been 9k+ every slate on DK. The Bulls have a bottom-five defense without Caruso and Ball and Booker could have a ceiling game because of it.

In just 21 minutes of action after an eight-game layoff, Mitchell had 27 points and 42.8 DKP. With Jordan Clarkson potentially missing and Joe Ingles out for the year, a lot more responsibility is going to be on Mitchell’s shoulders. I’m not sure who the Knicks plan on guarding Mitchell with, but it’s not likely going to matter.

Thompson may have played his best game of the year last time out and he played 23 minutes and hit seven three’s and scored 23 points, 42 DKP. He’s now put up 26+ DKP in five straight games. He’s not my favorite play considering this could get out of hand and OKC’s defense is good, but if his shot is on early, he could repeat his performance from the other day.

It’s hard to predict the Knicks rotation, but Fournier has played 30+ minutes in three of four games and has really started to show consistent offense for the struggling squad. He’s put up 15+ points in four straight games. He’s put up 40+ DKP in two of four games and gets a bottom-10 defense since Rudy Gobert went down with an injury.

With Tyler Herro expected to sit and possibly Jimmy Butler too, Robinson stands out in tournaments. He’s under 4K and has begun getting a lot of time on the floor again. When his shot is falling, he’s one of the best floor spacers in the league.

With Tyler Herro unlikely to play, Butler is in a prime spot. Butler, without Herro, has a 24.3% USG and has 1.2 FP/min on the year. Butler’s price is almost at 10K, which isn’t favorable, but the match-up is elite. Washington is 18th in DRtg over the last two weeks and are 1-4.

Barrett is coming off one of the best games of his career, notching 36 points, eight rebounds, five assists and 56 DKP. He’s now put up 30+ DKP in three of four games and gets a solid match-up against Utah. He likely avoids Royce O’Neale defense here as RON likely defends Randle here.

I mean, Jon and I talked about it on the podcast; yes we know Hayward has stunk since returning, but have NOT seen his price at 5K all year long. Not once. Is this an easy match-up? No, but the 225 total and two-point spreads speaks to how good this game could be. This is a guy averaging 30 DKP/game this year. Hard not to at least consider him.

If Coby White and Zach LaVine – both QUEST – sit out again, Green should definitely be on our radar. He’s been needed offensively a bit more without them as he’s scored 16+ in two straight games and has double-figure points in five straight games. He’s put up 25+ DKP in each of those five games.

Something to monitor if we see Lu Dort ruled out. I don’t hate Williams as he suddenly lost all his minutes to Pokusevski who has been sent to the G-League. Williams could be an interesting tournament dart and one who sees a bunch of time if the game gets out of hand.

UPDATE - LaVine is playing. Not in love w/ DDR at this price point w/ LaVine in. ORIGINAL - If Zach LaVine sits, I have interest. If he doesn’t, I’d have a hard time paying nearly 10K for DeRozan with Lavine, DDR and Vucevic all in the lineup.

The offense continues to run through Pascal Siakam and man is he ballin’ right now. He’s put up 45+ DKP in five straight games and has even flashed 60 FP upside as well. He plays ALL the minutes, 40+ in four of five games. He gets the dream match-up against the Charlotte front court that he’s already put up 55.8 DKP against.

I just don’t love it. He’s been better from a fantasy perspective, but this just isn’t something I really love. Royce O’Neale is a great defender and sure Randle could just have a big game like he did against the Lakers, but his inconsistencies don’t make me feel great about it. Randle is a GPP option only.

The new clubhouse leader for the Wizards in terms of usage rate when Bradley Beal is off the floor is here! It’s Kyle Kuzma with a 26.6% mark while averaging 1.15 FP/min as well. It’s not an easy match-up by any stretch considering he could see PJ Tucker, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo defense, but Kuz has averaged a double-double and 35.9 DKP/game against them in three games.

This is an interesting price point because we know Crowder, when everyone is healthy, doesn’t have massive upside, but he does in this match-up going up against a Bulls defense missing a lot of pieces. They’ve struggled at defending PF specifically and Crowder could have a big outing because of that fact.

I mean, everyone’s eating against Washington so why can’t Tucker have a game against them? He’s been a very solid contributor of late outside of his last game but his team won by 20. He’s averaged 24 DKP/game over his last five and has slipped below 4K too. With Tyler Herro out, there could be some extra shot attempts coming Tucker’s way.

UPDATE - LaVine is playing. Not in love w/ Vooch at this price point w/ LaVine in. ORIGINAL - *Insert DDR’s write-up here*

We know Tyler Herro is unlikely to play, but if both he and Jimmy Butler sit, I have a lot of interest in Bam. I don’t love the 9K price point if Butler’s in, but there’s upside if he’s out. With Butler and Herro off the floor this season, Adebayo averages 1.44 FP/min.

Who knows how many minutes Ayton would have played if the game stayed close, but was limited to just 24 against Washington. In those 24 minutes, he dominated, putting up a 20-point, 16-rebound double-double. I love the price point truthfully and this might be the best game environment on the board to boot. 

It’s going to be easy for Plumlee chasing Siakam around the floor here, but he’s played a boatload of minutes lately and has a lot of success while out there. He has four double-digit rebounding outings over his last five games, has chipped in with a steal in each of his last five and if a good passer to boot. He needs to stay out of foul trouble. GPPs only.

With Daniel Gafford out, expect it to be a timeshare between Thomas Bryant and Harrell. Harrell has actually been quite productive of late, putting up 28, 21 & 25 DKP in the last three games he’s played in. The minutes have been solid too, playing 23+ in those three games. That should be the same here with Gafford out and he’s averaged 27.5 DKP/game against MIA in two meetings.

There are multiple scenarios for me that lead to Diakite being a good play. One, he’s been starting and has now played 18+ minutes in three straight, 24+ in two straight. Secondly, he’s under 4K still. Thirdly, he’s been very active on both ends of the floor and lastly, if the Warriors open this game up, who’s stopping them from using him and letting him develop? He’s going to get that run over Favors and Muscala….

ADDED - It's interesting to see Cody Martin ruled out. Martin plays a solid role off the bench & so does Oubre, but this could help Oubre stay on the floor longer. It also helps the likes of Rozier & Hayward. Oubre is viable in GPPs.