NBA DFS Playbook: February 16

It’s hard to get to 11K, but OKC is without a lot of its best defenders and I’m not exactly sure how they plan on stopping Murray. He has 80 FP upside when his shot is falling, so he makes the playbook for GPPs only.

Obviously, we need to find out if he’s going to play or not, but it’s an elite match-up if he does. Portland is 28th in DRtg this year and this game has a juicy 227.5 total. 

I don’t get the pricing considering we knew a week ago that John Collins would miss the final few games leading up to the All-Star break. Young was over 10K a week ago, and now the price is all the way down to 9.4K coming off a 41 point, nine assist game. He’s now put up 55+ DKP in three of four games and faces the 23rd ranked defense in the league.

He’s looked great in a Pacers uniform and the team has been much better offensively playing with Haliburton. He’s had 17+ points, 6+ assists, 4+ rebounds, two multi-steal games, has made 3+ threes, and has 40+ DKP in three games with his new team. Washington is 21st in DRtg and there has been a LOT of turmoil within their franchise of late. Who’s stopping Haliburton here? Raul Neto? Ish Smith? You’re funny.

I guess the 30 minutes per game was never gonna happen. The Thunder’s last game went to OT and Giddey casually played 38 minutes. He triple-doubled again and I saw again because that’s his second in a row. He has played 33+ minutes in each game and the Spurs are a team we can attack. No SGA, no Dort, no Kenrich Williams for OKC. Giddey up!

The match-up, for one, is fantastic. The Bulls are down three of their top guards in LaVine, Caruso, and Ball, so White is going to be playing a big role. He’s played 34+ minutes in back-to-back games and with all those guys out, averages a 23.2% USG and .99 FP/min average. He’s put up 36+ DKP in three straight games.

I like Ayo quite a bit here even though Coby White has been the better of the two guards. We could see ownership gravitate White’s way w/ how the two have played, but Ayo has as much upside as White does. He’s a very willing passer and has a 14 assist game on his resume from this month! The match-up is as good as it gets as SAC ranks 29th in DRtg.

It was aided by OT, but Beverley balled the hell out on Tuesday as he put up 39 DKP in 36 minutes. He’s been pretty damn good in general lately, putting up 22+ DKP in seven straight games. I’m not starting my builds with him, but if this is where I landed w/ 5.1K left I wouldn’t shy away from it either.

If Morant sits = lock and load.

Mitchell has been awesome recently averaging 47.9 DKP/game and now gets a juicy match-up against a reeling Lakers team. The Lakers are still playing at an extremely fast pace, which bodes well for Utah and Mitchell here.

Even in a game in which he went 5-of-20 from the floor, Russell made his impact felt. He made four threes, had 11 rebounds, and had four boards. He still managed 42 DKP. Imagine a game he makes half of those shots? He puts up 50+ DKP. He has that in his bag here against the Raps.

Bane let everyone down on Tuesday and I’m here to tell you I’m going RIGHT back to the well again on Wednesday if Ja Morant is out. Recency bias may keep people away but I’m not afraid.

There is something to be said about how Hield is being used in Indiana versus how he was used elsewhere. He’s getting a LOT of shots in Rick Carlisle’s system and that doesn’t seem like it’s going to change anytime soon. He’s taken 17+ shots in three games and he went 14-of-20 on Tuesday. Will he again? Probably not, but we know how high his ceiling is in this offense at the very least.

Since arriving in Boston, White has fit in nicely and has a 22.1% USG and averages .93 FP/min. After Marcus Smart left Tuesday’s game, White started the second half in his place. Smart is listed doubtful for Wednesday so one can only assume White is going to start this game as well. He is a solid tournament option.

I mean, yeah, fire him up! All formats! No Kyrie Irving, struggling Knicks defense. We also saw what Curry is capable of in his debut and boy did he look sharp. He very well could be one of the higher rostered players of the slate and a core play for myself.

The Thunder are down a bunch of their core pieces and Mann benefitted from that tremendously in the team's last game. Now, let the record show that he is VERY streaky and when he’s missing shots, he generally doesn’t stay on the floor. He’s a GPP option only.

He’s not 3K anymore, but he’s still very cheap for the number of minutes he’s playing right now. He’s played 37 and 40 minutes in each of the last two games..what more can we ask for? He spaces the floor nicely too, as he’s made 5 threes in each of the last two games.

DiVincenzo had his biggest workload of the season the other day against Brooklyn playing 27 minutes. He didn’t shoot the ball great, but it didn’t stop him from shooting as he went 4-for-11 and knocked down two threes and had 35.5 DKP. Davion Mitchell is now listed questionable and that would only bolster DDV’s role here. The Bulls are a bottom-10 defense in February and could have issues with DDV here.

I mean, he’s OK, but not a priority of mine. He’s listed questionable so before committing to LBJ fully, let’s make sure he plays.

I wasn’t too bullish on Tatum during the podcast, but I’ve come around a little and here’s why. Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are doubtful. Williams dominates the glass for Boston and Smart handles the ball a lot, two things Tatum takes a backseat to sometimes. Without them, Schroder, Richardson, and Freedom, Tatum averages 1.7 FP/min. He has MASSIVE upside everywhere. 

Hart is going to have every opportunity to turn his already breakout campaign into something more. He’s had 23 and 27 actual points in his first two games in a Blazers uni and we saw the whole package last time out where he contributed counting stats in EVERY category. The minutes are coming in bunches and the FP should continue to follow suit.

There’s something to be said about Mills’ poor shooting recently, but his season's body of work speaks for itself. Without the guys injured/traded for & from BKN, Mills has a 21.9% USG rate and averages .88 FP/min. EVERYONE is going to gravitate towards Seth Curry and understandably so, but Mills is the GPP pivot here.

When we get the offense along with the defensive stats, we get breakouts like we did against Detroit. Rui Hachimura and Kristaps Porzingis have been ruled out too, so Avdija should once again approach 30 minutes here. I think he’s a pretty solid option for our GPP lineups.

The trick is figuring out what the hell Steve Nash is going to do with his rotation on any given day and once you have that down, you’ve solved the Rubix cube. Brown started and played 37 minutes last time out, going for 52 DKP. This feels a little trappy because of the eight blocks/steals combined, but because they’re down so many players, Brown could be a regular in this rotation until they’re healthy.

If we find out Anthony Edwards is unable to go in this game, McDaniels is a nice GPP option at just 3.5K. He started the second half for Edwards and ended up playing 37 minutes, going for 41.5 DKP. We shouldn’t expect that or anywhere close to that really, but McDaniels DEFINITELY has some fantasy goodness in his bag of tricks.

I love the match-up and the way DDR has played, but the price makes this VERY uncomfortable, doesn’t it? He HAS to give us 35+ actual points again because he just doesn’t give us enough – or hasn’t I should say – peripherally to make up for not scoring all those points. Now, counterpoint, he HAS scored that many and more six straight games. Sacramento is 29th in DRtg and I’m not sure how many ownership DDR gets on a slate of this size at this price.

Randle has to be our favorite power forward spend-up, right? He’s been a MONSTER, averaging 29.3 points, 12.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 58.3 DKP/game over his last six contests. Brooklyn is 26th in DRtg since the beginning of February and Randle should be able to do whatever he wants against them sans Rose and Barrett here.

With Ja Morant’s status in the air, it brings into question how will Jackson fare? Well, he has a 33.2% USG rate and averages 1.34 FP/min without Morant and Brooks this year and both lead the team. He’s put up 40+ DKP in three of four games and is nice and fresh for this game after only playing 25 minutes on Tuesday. GPPs only.

I thought the production would slow down, but maybe it’s here to stay. It’ll definitely stay for the time being without SGA, Dort, and Williams healthy. He’s put up 34+ minutes and 40+ DKP in three straight games and might have the best match-up yet tonight against the Spurs. Bazley makes sense in GPPs.

A few things work in Horford’s favor here. First, Robert Williams is doubtful to play. Second, he only played 20 minutes last night due to the blowout and early foul trouble, so he should be fresh. Lastly, Detroit is one of the worst defensive units in the game. If they keep it competitive, Boston’s wily vet could have a big game here.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we’re seeing Okeke’s playing time on the rise while Mo Bamba’s is declining. Okeke makes seemingly more impact on both ends of the floor and faces off against a Hawks team that he’s had success against in the past. He’s coming off back-to-back 32+ DKP games and is below 5K.

Let's go back to the well here. Yes he’s foul happy and we could see him in foul trouble again, but he’s not guarding Giannis tonight. He’s a FP/min freak – 25.3 DKP in 17 minutes on Tuesday – and that’s clear. He started on Tuesday and likely does again on Wednesday. Under 4K is a steal for the upside he has.

I will never tell you not to play Jokic. As good of a floor/ceiling combination as anyone else on the slate.

Towns is coming off a monster performance last night but this is a much tougher test. That said, the test could be without Anthony Edwards. Without Edwards on the floor, KAT has a team-leading 32.5% USG rate and 1.46 FP/min. His 4.9% USG bump is 2.2% higher than anyone elses.

When you start talking about the Bulls, you cannot start the conversation without mentioning who’s out. Ball, LaVine, Caruso, and Williams. Without those guys this year, Vucevic has a 30% USG and averages 1.36 FP/min. He’s second on the team in USG, but he actually leads them in FP/min when those guys are out. He’s also cheaper than DDR on this slate.

He has 50 FP upside and a 12 FP floor. Hard to trust but can be used in GPPs.

I loved what I saw from Drummond in his first game with the team scoring 33 DKP in 24 minutes. That number should rise as things progress and he gets more comfortable within the team. He should be able to stockpile fantasy points without the likes of Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and Ben Simmons in the lineup.

I mean, this guy has been amazing! 40+ DP in three straight and 38+ in four of his last five. He has double-doubles in all four of them and has 4+ assists in each as well. Without Morant and Brooks on the floor this year (Morant QUEST), Adams is averaging 1.26 FP/min. ELITE numbers at his price.

We have to have a short memory and Capela’s performance on Tuesday SUCKED, but what was great about it was the 31 minutes he played. That was the second straight game he topped 30 and we have to love that. John Collins is still out and without Collins, Capela averages 1.14 FP/min on the year.

ADDED - If Fred VanVleet is ruled out, that thrusts Trent right into play. Trent has a 27.9% USG and averages 1.09 FP/min w/o him. Only in play w/o him for me.

ADDED - The offense will flow through Siakam more than usual if FVV is ruled out. He didn't go through shootaround, so things aren't looking great, He has a 26.8% USG rate and  a team leading 1.15 FP/min.

ADDED - It's hard to find someone that plays 30+ minutes at this price across the industry. The Thunder are missing SGA, Dort, and Williams, so another 30+ minutes is in the cards for Wiggins.

ADDED - I know things have been bad for Anunoby, but he can be a great GPP play if FVV sits. He's very cheap and averages 1.03 FP/min without him and 23.5% USG rate as well.