NBA DFS Playbook - February 25

It’s not the easiest match-up on the board, but Doncic is on a different planet right now. He’s put up 75+ DKP in three of four games and has 65 DKP in four of five. Without Porzingis and Hardaway Jr. this year Doncic has a 40.2% USG rate and averages 1.69 FP/min.

Most people are going to take the wait-and-see approach, but Harden isn’t going to simply play 25 minutes in his debut and go through the motions. They’re looking to hammer things out and win games. He’ll be low-owned and is something – if building multiple lineups – I’m going to be looking at in GPPs.

Without CP3, we saw a sneak preview as to what this team could look like offensively. It was Devin Booker early and often and late and often. He double-doubled while also grabbing five rebounds and six steals, good for 61.25 DKP. Obviously a little lucky with the steals, but we’re going to get an influx of scoring more than likely with CP3 out. He might be my favorite play of the slate.

With Anthony Davis off the floor this year, Westbrook has a 28.9% USG and 1.18 FP/min. When you remove LBJ from that equation as well, those numbers are 24.5% and 1.37. LBJ is listed as questionable, so if they’re both out, I’ll have plenty of interest in Westbrook here.

Russell had one of those games last night, notching 37 actual points including 16 in the fourth. He also fell just one assist shy of a double-double too. This doesn’t rate out as an elite match-up, but with Harden in the lineup, Harden & Maxey aren’t exactly the best defensive backcourt in the league. GPPs only for me.

UPDATE - Hampton is now listed questionable. Like Suggs even more if Hampton is out. ORIGINAL - I know RJ Hampton is back, but I don’t think his return really impacts these guards all that much the more I think about things. This match-up against HOU is SO good. They’re the worst defense in basketball while also playing at an insanely high pace. Suggs has played 35 minutes in b2b games and has 30+ DKP in three straight. He flashed 45+ DKP upside. GPPs only for me.

The Spurs have not really used any of their new guys yet, which has opened up more time for Walker. He’s played 26+ minutes in three straight games, pouring in 17+ points in each. He’s also topped 28 DKP in two straight. Washington has been a bottom half of the league defense in February.

Since arriving, this has been McCollum’s team. He has a 29.7% USG and averages 1.3 FP/min as well. He’s put up 30+ points in three of four and 50+ DKP in those three as well. It’s a tough match-up, but he’s catching PHX on a back-to-back.

UPDATE - Less in love w/ Hield if Duarte plays. He’s QUEST. ORIGINAL - Even with Malcolm Brogdon back, we should expect Hield to stay on the floor a LOT here. He creates space for them with his three-point shooting and we’ve seen him take 17+ shots in 3 of 4 games. Hield’s 20.6% USG and .99 FP/min is very solid with his new team. GPPs with Brogdon returning.

We’ve seen the influx of offense out of Bridges lately and that was on full display again on Thursday notching 21 actual points. He’s put up double-digit actual points in 12 straight games and it’s been 17+ in five of six. No reason to think this won’t continue without Chris Paul in the lineup.

I already really like Monk in this spot considering there’s no Anthony Davis, but if LBJ sits too Monk is very close to a lock-and-load. He’s averaging .9 FP/min without Davis on the floor this year. He’s a flame thrower when his shot is falling and with a lot of more shots opening up, if he gets hot he can break a slate.

With how many injuries the Clippers have suffered through, Kennard finds himself in the midst of ample playing time. He torched the Rockets in the final game before the break, hitting 8-of-9 threes for 25 points and 36.5 DKP. It’s a tournament play because they have a lot of guys on the wing that they use, but one that can be quite good when his shot is falling.

If he plays, he’s elite as it gets. Without Anthony Davis this year, LBJ has a 32.8% USG rate and is averaging 1.55 FP/min. It’s hard to look past those numbers and be like “yeah, I’m going to fade that”.

It’s not an easy match-up, but this game features a very solid 225.5 O/U. Bridges has put up 28+ points and 46+ DKP in two straight games and has averaged 40 DKP vs. TOR this year in two games. Gordon Hayward is still out and without him this year Bridges has a 23.8% USG rate and averages 1.1 FP/min.

The range of outcomes with Morris is wild. He could have such a great impact on the game when his shot is falling, but he could also get thrown out, miss every shot, or play 20 minutes in a blowout. It’s a GPP play only for me.

I love this spot for Vassell and I’ve loved how he’s played lately too. He’s played 28+ minutes in four of five games in those four, he’s topped 30 DKP. The Wizards are 17th in DRtg in February and 21st in DRtg on the season. Vassell has definitely done more with Derrick White gone and now with Richardson, Primo, and Langford out, 30 minutes should come for Vassell again.

Johnson started on Thursday and if Cameron Payne sits out once again, there’s no doubt Johnson will draw another start here. In 30 minutes, he scored 21 points, five assists, four rebounds, and 37 DKP. Johnson’s a great value against a bad defense in this spot, especially with how well he can shoot the ball.

I don’t think anybody is going to play Randle with Miami as his opponent, but if RJ Barrett sits again, he should be in our player pool. Look how incredible he’s been. He has scored 28+ actual points in seven straight games, and 55+ DKP in five straight. He has a double or triple-double in five consecutive as well.

One of the easier plug-and-plays on the board. Charlotte is the juiciest frontcourt spot on the board. Now we know about OG Anunoby’s broken finger and Fred VanVleet is returning from injury as well. Siakam has torched Charlotte this year averaging 54 DKP/game across two meetings. You don’t have to spend up tonight starting Booker/Siakam if you don’t want to.

We’re getting a really good version of Carter Jr. right now as he’s put up 30+ DKP in five straight and has put up 50+ over that span as well. I’ve talked about this already, but HOU is dead last in DRtg and play fast. WCJr. has a double-double and a 37.5 DKP against the Rockets this year.

Without Derrick White around anymore, Keldon Johnson is the Robin to Dejounte Murray’s Batman. Johnson scored 22 points in the game prior to the All-Star game and he scored 16+ points in the five of his final six. I love the sub-6K price point as he’s put up 30+ DKP in four of five and eight of 10.

Hayes has entered the starting lineup in the last two games and he’s played 26+ minutes in each game. He’s scored double-figures in three straight, has 21+ DKP in all three and 25+ in the last two. He’ll have a distinct size advantage over Jae Crowder, so he could definitely take advantage of that offensively. 

I want exposure to guys against the Rockets and you should too. Okeke is definitely a GPP play because of the volatility of his shots, but the minutes have pretty much been there. He’s put up 26+ minutes in three straight games and in four of his last five. He’s put up 21 DKP or more in six straight games and has flashed 30+ DKP in multiple instances.

Insert what I said earlier about James Harden. People will stay away from Embiid because the unknown with James Harden, but you’re not going to take the ball out of one of the leading candidates for MVP’s hands. You’re just not. Minnesota is 23rd in rebounding, middle of the pack in defense, and near the top in pace. Love Embiid in this spot.

Wood could excel in this spot considering what the Magic are dead last in rebounding this month and 26th in DRtg. There is suddenly a logjam at the guard position for Houston but Wood is still the top dog offensively. This has double-double written all over it like it did their first meeting in which Wood had 20 & 13.

Poeltl is a GPP play through and through. He has 50 FP upside when he’s scoring and when he’s not, he may not even get you 30 FP. Washington is a bottom-10 rebounding team this month and Poeltl could go off there.

Even with the terrible Thursday night game, look at Ayton’s numbers without CP3 on the floor. 1.23 FP/min this season. The usage rate drops, sure, but we’re not going to get five shots from him again. Considering he was only 11% owned on a seven game slate Thursday, it’ll be even lower on Friday.

Harrell’s couldn’t be better with Charlotte right now as he’s coming off an OT game that he played 43 minutes in. He played 34 minutes the game before too. He’s put up 26+ DKP in all four games he’s played with CHA thus far and goes up against an undersized frontcourt in TOR.

I mean, the spot is good, the minutes are super sporadic..can we trust Bamba? Trust..no, but use in GPP’s? Sure. He has played 23+ minutes in three of four games and has put up 25+ DKP in four of six.

ADDED - I mean, do we have to? Chris Paul, Aaron Holiday, and Cameron Payne are ALL out, so Payton is the last Elf left on the shelf. We know he’s a pretty good FP/min producer when he’s on the floor, but will PHX elect to play Booker mainly at PG and use Landry Shamet a lot too? Holiday played 24 minutes on Thursday so Payton could definitely see 15 of those. If he gets to 20, he could be really viable.

ADDED - While everyone pivots to Payton, I’d like to remind you that Shamet has been much more of a regular in the Suns’ rotation than Payton has. Also, Shamet played 20 minutes on Thursday while Elf didn’t play at all. Shamet could be extended here, maybe to 25 minutes and he’s free. If his shot is falling, he could do damage.

ADDED - With Anthony Davis out and Anthony returning, he could be a sneaky GPP option here. Under 5K across the industry, with AD off the floor, Anthony avgs. .95 FP/min and has a 22% USG rate.