Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -2.5

O/U: 56.5

Weather: Rain, temperature mid-60's. 5-to-8 MPH north wind.

Notable Injuries:

Buffalo Bills

none

Kansas City Chiefs

none

DVOA Defensive Rankings

Buffalo Bills

vs Pass: 1st

vs Run: 2nd 

Chiefs

vs Pass: 31st

vs Run: 32nd

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

MVP/Captain

Josh Allen, QB BUF - Allen has seven total touchdowns over the past two weeks in games which the Bills had blowout wins over Houston and Washington. The Chiefs defense ranks 31st against the run and 32nd against the pass per DVOA and we are looking at a game total of 56.5.  The expected rain is a bit worrisome but Allen's ability to impact the game with both his arm and his legs is appealing.

Patrick Mahomes, QB KC - Even when Mahomes is having a bad game he still finds himself going for three scores and 25 FP like we saw in Week 3 against the Chargers. This defense will be one of the toughest the Chiefs have faced to this point if you look at the metrics however it is also worth considering who the Bills have played of late and whether or not those defensive numbers are a bit inflated. I say they are and do not expect Mahomes to have a ton of trouble here tonight as he looks to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.

Travis Kelce, TE KC - Kelce struggled against the Eagles in Week 4, catching just four passes for 23 yards. This game feels like a good bounce back oppurtunity, not just because of the game total but because if the weather is going to be in play, Mahomes may need to rely on Kelce a bit more in the intermediate part of the field instead of taking shots down field. The wet field may take the speed element away from the Chiefs and Kelce looks like a mudder. 

Zack Moss, RB BUF - Moss has four touchdowns over the last three games and if this game is going to be wet we may see the Bills look to the running game a bit more than we typically expect them to.  Moss has double-digit carries in each of the last two weeks while rushing for 60 yards in each game. The Chiefs are 32nd in DVOA against the run. Moss could be a salary saver as an MVP/CPT play.

Stefon Diggs, WR BUF - Diggs, is like Kelce, in a sense that he is a great possession receiver that doesn't rely on downfield speed to be effective. After a slow start, Diggs finally cracked the 100-yard marker last week, finishing with seven catches on 11 targets for 114 yards.

Mid-Tier

Tyreek Hill, WR KC - Hill has had two games this season in which he went for 186 yards and 197 yards. He also had two games which he had 14 yards and 56 yards. With rain expected, it would see tough to think this is a night he goes for almost 200 yards receiving, especially if the field is slick and takes away some of his speed. That said, he is as explosive of a player as their is in the league. He can obviously be used as a captain but it is a boom or bust play.

Dawson Knox, TE BUF - Can he sustain it? That's the question when it comes to Knox who is all of a sudden become a hot target of QB Josh Allen.  Knox has four touchdowns over the last three weeks and last week he had eight targets to go with five receptions. The total yards haven't been great for Knox as he has yet to eclipse 49 in any game this season. If you wanted to get weird you can use Knox as your MVP/CPT today and hope the touchdown train continues. Last week Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined for 11 receptions and 116 yards last week against the Chiefs.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC - Same thinking here with Moss. If the weather is going to be a factor then these teams may look to run the ball a bit more than we typically see them. CEH has gone for 100-yards in each of the last two games on the ground while also adding a receiving touchdown in both. Check downs could play a big role again tonight.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR BUF -  Sanders has at least six targets in each game this season and has taken over as the No.2 receiver on the roster as he is ahead of Cole Beasley. Sanders is another possession type receiver that could be effective in this type of game environment.

Tyler Bass, K BUF - Yes, a kicker! Bass has gone for double-figure points in three of the four games this season. If the rain ends up being an issue for the offenses to finish off drives then this one could turn into some opportunities to kick field goals. We are not expecting any real wind tonight so the wet weather will be the only issue.

Devin Singletary, RB BUF - The Bills have a lot of viable options because the ball touches a lot of hands. The Chiefs have a very concentrated offense. Singletary is playing behind Zack Moss but has also seen double-digit carries in every game this season and has at least one reception in each game this year. Playing BOTH Bills running backs is not out of the question today.

Dart Throws

Cole Beasley, WR BUF - Last week we saw Beasley finish with just two receptions for 16 yards. The week before he had 11 receptions on 13 targets for 98 yards. He seems to be behind Emmanuel Sanders and maybe Dawson Knox but the Bills also love to go to a spread offense which means Beasley will be on the field. If the weather is an issue then a possession receiver like Beasley could be effective.

Darrell Williams, RB KC - Williams had 10 carries for 42 yards last week and added two receptions for 16 yards. Williams ran for a touchdown last week and has two rushing touchdowns over the last three. We know that CEH has had some issues in the goal-to-go situations and Williams will get those carries. If you want to bank on the TD he could be the play.

Mecole Hardman, WR KC - Not my favorite player by any stretch but Hardman is a home run hitter and with this game total as high as it is then there is definitely a chance for him to make an impact. Hardman has seen at least three targets in each game this season and has at least two catches in each game as well. His big game this season was in Week 3 against the Chargers which saw him finish with three catches and a touchdown..

Josh Gordon, WR KC - Ok, the moment you have been waiting for is here! Josh Gordon is expected to be active tonight. What kind of role will he have? No idea, but the Chiefs didn't sign him to have him stand on the sidelines. At the very least, he probably takes the snaps that Demarcus Robinson was seeing or Byron Pringle. Maybe he gets a 30-percent snap share and a handful of targets.

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