NBA DFS Playbook - Christmas Day

No Kevin Durant means we get max usage Harden here with a 37% usage rate with Durant off the floor this season. The Lakers wouldn't be able to defend an AAU team at the moment so I see no reason to think we aren't getting a ceiling game here.

Flip side of this matchup is Westbrook. With Anthony Davis off the floor this season Westbrook has a 30.4% usage rate while averaging 1.23 FP/Min. While LeBron James has been carrying the workload for the Lakers this season we have still gotten solid overall production from Westbrook and he is always capable of putting up triple-double level production.

Giannis is expected back so that is certainly a blow to Holiday when it comes to his usage rate but we don't know if Giannis is going to be limited at all given the amount of games he has missed. That said, this is a smaller slate and still a decent matchup for Holiday who is really playing at the top of his game right now.

Dallas has as tough matchup against Utah here but the team is so shorthanded that even if this one ends up being the blowout that Las Vegas is saying it will be I still see Brunson playing north of 30 minutes and giving us the 5x we need. He has played so many minutes of late however that he is a GPP only play for me.

So, Immanuel Quickley was activated from Covid protocols but may not play. The same goes for RJ Barrett. As long as those two remain out of the lineup and the rotation we have to keep playing Walker, especially in such an elite matchup against the Hawks. Walker broke the slate on Wednesday, going for 70 FP on DraftKings while scoring 44 actual.

After leaving Thursday's game with an injury Wright is now probable to play  for the Hawks on Christmas Day against the Knicks.  This is a good matchup for Wright and assuming he is healthy I expect him to start and play a decent chunk of minutes given the lack of depth the Hawks have right now.

I don't really love the player but he is playing a ton of minutes and had one of his better offensive outputs on Wednesday night as he took 16 shots. It is hard to say he can repeat such a performance as he has never been known as an offensive player but given the lack of depth he should be on the floor a ton for the Mavericks.

One of my favorite plays is going to be Devin Booker. The Warriors are missing some core rotational players, notably Andrew Wiggins who is a great defender and the man who would have likely been tasked to deal with Booker in this game. Now, the Warriors do also have Otto Porter and Gary Payton who are solid defensively as well but Booker is really playing well right now and coming off a ceiling game.

Everything I said in the Kemba Walker analysis holds true here. As long as the Knicks remain shorthanded with Quickley and Barrett out then I am Ok paying the price for Burks. If those two are active then we have to expect some impact here and therefore Burks feels a bit too expensive even in a good matchup.

Always a favorite GPP dart throw of mine. Vegas is saying this one figures to be a blowout and Clarkson tends to be the man on the floor late in games when they get out of hand as Utah gives Conley and Mitchell a breather. That said, Clarkson is strong in his regular role as well which he normally sees 25 or so minutes off the bench. 

Though Quickley and Barrett have been cleared to play it doesn't look like they will be active for Saturday's slate. Assuming they both sit we can take another good look at Fournier here who will be in for a big time workload in a favorable matchup against the Hawks.

Could be the “aces” play for the Hawks with Trae Young already out and the likes of Delon Wright, Kevin Heurter and Cam Reddish all questionable to play. We have seen Bogdan have some big games when called upon to be “THE" guy and while I am also expecting big things from John Collins here I do love going at this Knicks front court that just gave up 50 FP to Spencer Dinwiddie on Wednesday.

He started with Poole and Lee out of the lineup for the Warriors and should get the start again here against the Suns. Payton is a decent all around player and with much of the defensive focus on Steph Curry it makes for secondary players like Payton a solid GPP option as he gets open looks.

Can take a look at Mays if he starts again or maybe even Lance Stephenson who is also pretty cheap here. The status of Cam Reddish, Kevin Huerter and Delon Wright matter big time when it comes to the like of Mays and Stephenson as they could be asked to play big minutes, especially with recently signed Wes Iwundo also hitting the Covid-IL.

The Lakers keep losing but nobody can look at LeBron James and say it's because of him. In the team's blowout loss to the Spurs on Wednesday we saw James go for 36 points, nine rebounds, six assists, two blocks and one steal. He is averaging 52 FP over the last five games.

The price is high but we Brown has shown the ability to put up big numbers even when Jayson Tatum is active. This is likely because most teams are worrying about Tatum while Brown is getting the softer defensive rotations. I don't expect high rostership when it comes to this game even though it has plenty of talented players that could lead the slate in scoring.

Like Holiday, with Giannis expected back, Middleton will see his usage rate take a hit. The question is whether or not Giannis will be limited at all after missing so many games. I like Middleton for a cash game play either way and he could be a solid GPP option if we get a minutes cap on Giannis.

If Porzingis is out I think DFS becomes a decent play here once again. This is the most consistent offensive output we have seen from him maybe at any point in his career and it has really helped raise both his floor and ceiling when it comes to fantasy production as he is essentially the second scoring option behind Brunson right now. If Zinger is active I still expect a lot of minutes from DFS but I would expect less shot attempts to go his way.

Safe floor player. He is going to see 30 minutes and give you somewhere in the range of 25 fantasy points. This matchup may offer some additional upside as the Mavericks are not a great defensive team and Bojan can get hot from three-point range.

Will have to check the injury status here as Reddish left Thursday's game with an ankle injury, then returned, then left with a calf cramp. Assuming he is good to go this is a great spot as Reddish has a 30% usage rate and averages 1.18 FP/Min with Young, Gallinari and Lou Williams off the floor this season.

Core play here. Porter is playing 30+ minutes right now with all the players out for the Warriors and we saw Iguodala go down last night as well to only shorten the rotation. While the matchup is tough I think the advantage we have is that we aren't really looking for a ton of scoring out of Porter who has been a great source of secondary stat production this season to help his fantasy output.

Back-to-back games with a double-double for Brown who is playing big minutes for Dallas given their roster woes. If Porzingis returns he is probably the first player to take a hit but that said the team is still missing a bunch of rotational player so I don't really expect him to see less minutes, just less usage.

Expected to be active against the Celtics here but we do not know if there will be any limitations. If we get word that he is a full go then I have no issue paying the price tag given what we know his upside can be, especially against a Celtics team that may not have Al Horford this time around.

Good GPP play. He always has the potential to go for 60 FP even if he is usually sitting in that 45-to-50 FP range. Will not likely have a ton of rostership here so consider him a contrarian play.

The spot is fine but the price again leaves a lot to be desired. Good for cash games but with the way Kemba Walker is playing right now it seems difficult to envision a huge output. That said, the price on FanDuel is playable here. 

Need to know if he is active of course but assuming he does play and isn't limited I have to bite as he has a 30% usage rate with Doncic off the floor this season. The matchup against the Jazz isn't great but the lack of depth should dictate plenty of minutes here for Zinger.

Updating Collins here after the news that Clint Capela will be active. Collins is still a solid play due to the fact that Trae Young is out but Capela being on the floor will take away some of the rebounding opportunities that likely would have gone Collins way in this great matchup.

Averaging 40 FP in the two games against the Suns this season. Green continues to fill the stat sheet so while you won't see him drop 30 points you will get near triple-double production with blocks and steals. 

The Nets are getting some bodies back for this game which will certainly help but I still expect them to lean on Griffin here who had given us 30+ FP in three straight games while playing 30+ minutes in each.  The matchup against the Lakers is not all that tough right now given the state of play the Lakers have been putting out recently.

Value play here. Crowder should see 30 minutes here and in the two games against the Warriors this season he is averaging 27 fantasy points. He has dropped 22+ FP in two of the last three games.

Dart throw play we talked about on the podcast. Will need Porzingis to be ruled out here for Chriss to be in play but over the last two games with Porzingis out the man has gotten on the floor and gotten to work.

Top center play on the slate. We love going at the Mavericks with opposing centers and Gobert himself is playing at an ELITE level right now, averaging 50 FP over the last five games.

Pretty safe play here. He is averaging 42 FP over the last five games. He is averaging a double-double during that stretch and while the Warriors are a decent defensive team they still lack real talent at the center position.

Potentially no Horford and we know there is no Freedom for Boston here. Williams went for 50 FP the other night against the Cavaliers and we know he can be a high fantasy point per minute player. This is not an easy spot for him given the potential for foul trouble but against the Bucks a few games back, in a game that Horford did play, Williams put up 24 FP in 22 minutes. 

Claxton is expected to play for the Nets here and with the uncertainly surrounding Aldridge and Griffin here we could see a full run of minutes out of Claxton in this spot against the Lakers.

Breaking early this AM we have news that Capela has tested out of the leagues health protocols and will be active for today's game against the Knicks. We don't know exactly how many minutes he will play as he has missed a few games here but that makes playing Dieng a hard pill to swallow knowing he will now be coming off the bench.