NBA DFS Playbook - December 27

There is SOOO much value on this slate that by default you have to start all builds with James Harden. There is no Kevin Durant once again and we saw the ceiling Harden has when he is “THE GUY". 

Play if you dare. Young has been activated for tonight's matchup against the Bulls. He has missed a few games due to covid protocols and has a tough matchup against the Bulls though it is worth mentioning that the Bulls are missing their two best defensive players in Caruso and Ball. Young could be asked to play 40 minutes from the jump and this man was on fire before getting shut down. Unfortunately there is no real discount here as he is the second highest priced guard on DK. A bit more reasonable on FanDuel where they just let you do whatever you want these days.

Currently questionable for a Blazers team that has seven guys in covid protocols right now. IF he plays then he is an absolute must play over on FanDuel where he is just $9,000. Lillard is averaging 38 points, 3.7 rebounds and 6.7 assists over the last three games.

Hasn't had a ceiling game since returning from covid but the price here is nice and the Hornets are again missing players with Bridges and Washington hitting the covid list. Houston presents an elite matchup for Ball tonight.

Even with the return of Porzingis we got another ceiling game from Brunson against the Jazz. Brunson is a lock and load play for both GPPs and Cash games tonight against a depleted Blazers roster.

No Donovan Mitchell tonight will give a boost to most of the Jazz regulars including Conley who last season saw a nice boost in both usage and fantasy production. The Spurs are without Dejounte Murray tonight as well making this matchup a good one for Conley.

As I mentioned, there is no Dejounte Murray for the Spurs tonight and we have already been loving White this season. The Spurs did play last night but won in a blowout which gave most of their starters some rest for this game.  With Murray off the floor this season White has a 22.6% usage rate and gets a team high 2.1% usage bump.

The Hawks are VERY limited tonight with the team's covid issues. Today Delon Wright landed in protocols which means we could be seeing point guard Bogdanovic here tonight. What I think is important here is that while the matchup against the Bulls is not great, he will be locked into monster minutes because Atlanta just does not have anyone else to play. UPDATE Trae Young has been cleared to play for tonight. Bogdan still figures to play heavy minutes but the pay is going to be in Young's hands a lot tonight.

With Augstine, Porter and Green out of the lineup we should look for Brooks to move back into the starting lineup tonight and play big minutes. He was giving us mid-30 FP production a week or so back when he was starting and playing 30-plus minutes. Given the 235 game total and here and the lack of options it is looking like Brooks could be in for another good night.

The Celtics are without Jayson Tatum & Dennis Schroder and may also be without Marcus Smart tonight as well. Either way, Pritchard has started playing more minutes for Boston and playing well. We saw last season he can be an offensive spark off the bench but he will likely draw the start tonight if Smart isn't active.

Minnesota is yet another squad dealing with covid issues right now. As it stands, both DeAngelo Russell and Anthony Edwards are out tonight. Patrick Beverely has been cleared to return but is questionable due to conditioning. Should all continue to miss then Nowell should be locked into a bigger role here tonight. I expect both he and Jordan Mclaughlin to get run.

It's not a big sample size but in 28 minutes this season which Tatum, Richardson and Schroder were off the floor this season Jaylen Brown had a 41.6% usage rate and averaging 1.90 fantasy points per minute. Not only is that scenario happening tonight but the Celtics may also be without Marcus Smart as well. Last season when Tatum and Smart were off the floor Brown had a 37.1% usage rate. Needless to say, he is a core play tonight.

We will take the discounted price tag here on Booker who let us down on Christmas, scoring just 25 fantasy points over 40 minutes. I expect a nice bounce back here against Memphis who is missing a few key rotational players this evening. In the first meeting between these two teams Booker had 33 fantasy points in just 25 minutes of play.

If you block the name and look at the production the price tag seems less offensive. Knowing the Nets are shorthanded and so are the Clippers this play actually makes some sense as he continues to provide secondary scoring to Harden.

Beasley has been a go to play for the T'Wolves given their issues with top guys like D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns out of the lineup. He likely will deal with either Jaylen Brown or Romoe Langford tonight but I expect big volume out of Beasley here in this matchup.

Rozier gets a little usage bump with Bridges off the floor. His shot is starting to drop and a matchup against Houston is never a bad thing, especially with a game total that is north of 230.

Love Clarkson any time one of the two guards is out of the lineup and tonight that is Donovan Mitchell. Clarkson gets the biggest bump of the group and while he may not start, he will still get a ton of run off the bench.

Kevin Porter and Jalen Green are both still questionable to play tonight. Should one or both sit then Gordon is in a decent little spot here against Charlotte who is not great defensively and as I mentioned, this game has HUGE total.

Already playing a bunch with McCollum out of the lineup but he would get a huge boost if Dame sat out tonight as well. There is soo much value on this slate but he would be hard to overlook if that ends up being the case.

Speaking of value plays, we got a double-double from Mays a few games ago and he should be in for a big workload tonight given the Hawks roster woes. UPDATE Trae Young has been cleared to play for tonight. While the Hawks are still shorthanded, we could see a slight reduction for Mays here.

He started  yesterday, played 28 minutes and gave fantasy players a double-double. With Brooks again out of the lineup we should expect Konchar to start and he is basically min price. It's a tough matchup but he has proven at times in the past that when playing an increased role he is capable of production.

Walker has the highest usage rate with Murray off the floor and could be the one that benefits the most when it comes to minutes. We may even see Walker enter the starting lineup with White moving into the starting point guard spot.

Rockets just announced that both Jae'sean Tate and KJ Martin have been ruled out tonight due to covid. The team is already without Garrison Matthews and both Kevin Porter Jr and Jalen Green are not expected to play. This just means plenty of playing time for Christopher who we saw get extended run already this season and be rather productive as well. This game also has a nice 235 game total to target.

Core play for me anyways today but if Lillard ends up sitting out he will become the top scoring option for Portland tonight as they run up against the Dallas Mavericks. Powell is averaging 32 FP over the last three games.

Could move into the starting lineup with Bridges ruled out tonight. Oubre is another player who benefits in both usage and fantasy production with Bridges off the floor. We have been teased many times by the upside Oubre brings to the table but he is also very inconsistent. That said, the price is nice and so is the matchup with this game total sitting over 230 points.

Reddish may actually be the starting power forward for the Hawks tonight given all their covid woes. Since returning to the lineup Reddish has been rock solid as he flashes that first round talent. UPDATE Trae Young has been cleared to play for tonight. That said, the team is still down a few players as of now which puts Reddish in a good spot even with Young active.

Mann continues to see solid minutes with Reggie Jackson and Paul George out of the lineup. Tonight Nicolas Batum has also been ruled out but we may see Marcus Morris back in some fashion. Either way, Mann is a player that can fill up the stat sheet and when the shot drops he has a very high ceiling.

We missed DFS the other day as he was ruled out with a non-covid related illness but prior to that he had been playing some of his best overall basketball in recent memory. The return of Kristaps Porzingis will likely impact his usage but we have seen over the past few seasons that as long as Luka Doncic is off the floor others in the lineup will get their shots.

While Jordan Clarkson has the highest usage rate with Mitchell out of the lineup we see that Bojan is not  far behind him, boasting a 27.3% usage rate while also averaging over a fantasy point per minute. Bojan continues to be a great cash game play at his price and tonight he will offer a little more upside here as well.

The Nets are still missing players but Brown was among the group that returned in time for the team's Christmas matchup against the Lakers and he played 36 minutes, scoring 16 points with six rebounds and four assists. I expect another big workload here tonight as well.

Bledsoe has really taken off over the last two games with Paul George out of the lineup and he gave us 50 fantasy points last night. I don't see many going this option tonight given the value on the board and the top spend up options but if we get another 50 FP from Bledsoe look out. 

Little has been cleared to play tonight after missing the Blazers game the other day with a non-covid related illness. Against the Grizzlies the last time he did see the floor he palyed 36 minutes and went for 33 fantasy points. Little is not a high volume offensive player but does give us everything else. With Lillard possibly sitting there is potential that he takes more shots tonight.

Generally when Conley or Mitchell are out it is Ingles that moves into the starting lineup and not Conley. Ingles does get a boost just from the increased minutes that he will see. He is also a player that can facilitate the offense and grab a few rebounds while hitting the the outside shot. I like him more on DraftKings thanks to the three-point bonus.

Langford has been starting for Boston and that is unlikely to change tonight with Jayson Tatum and Dennis Schroder out of the lineup and Marcus Smart now questionable to play as well. The third year wing has show improvements in his three-point shooting and has always been considered a solid NBA defender since entering the league and his defensive stats are coming through with a block in five of the last six games and back-to-back games of two steals.

Going to be a very popular option tonight as he tends to always be when Luka Doncic is off the floor. Now add in the fact that Portland is missing most of their starting front court, including Jusuf Nurkic and this one feels like a ceiling game is coming for Porzingis. Hope that Lillard plays so this game can stay somewhat competitive. 

Horford is not on the injury report for today and with Jayson Tatum ruled out it seems likely that he starts and makes his return. Now, Horford has missed a lot of time so there is a good shot he faces a minutes limit but this matchup against the T'Wolves is prime with Minnesota also dealing with a ton of missing bodies in their front court, notable Karl-Anthony Towns.

Hayward has really struggled to find his shot of late but the volume is still there and tonight he gets a great matchup against the Rockets with Miles Bridges out of the lineup along with PJ Washington due to health and safety protocols. I don't expect much ownership here tonight either which makes him an interesting contrarian play in a game with a 235 total.

Johnson went for 38 fantasy points in the first meeting between these two teams and with Dejounte Murray out of the lineup we could see more shots go his way tonight. Johnson is on a roll right now, averaging 35 FP over his last five games.

Morris was cleared to play last night but was ultimately ruled out due to conditioning. He finds himself questionable to play tonight but with Nicolas Batum being ruled out I am a bit more bullish on him actually playing. There is some risk here that he is on a minutes limit but the Clippers are missing some rotational pieces like Paul George.

Nance is averaging 30 minutes a night over the last three games and should be in for more than that with Portland now missing Jusuf Nurkic from their front court rotation as well. Nance is a high energy player that is no stranger to breaking slates when getting increased playing time. If Lillard ends up sitting out tonight that may only help his offensive upside..

As long as he stays out of foul trouble we should see 40+ minutes tonight from McDaniels who is starting at power forward for the T'Wolves who are without both Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid tonight. The team signed Greg Monroe to a 10-day contract but it is unlikely he sees any sort of extended run. McDaniels may even be in a better spot now that he doesn't have to defend Jayson Tatum.

Jaden's brother Jalen is also in the playbook tonight with the Hornets missing Miles Bridges and PJ Washington. McDaniels is averaging 20.9 fantasy points while playing 24.2 minutes over the last four games.

Jae Crowder is out for the Suns tonight which should boost Johnson into the starting lineup. We saw Johnson be very productive while seeing increased minutes when Devin Booker was out but we should at least note that Booker opened up many more shot attempts than Crowder will.

Gobert was a huge let down on Christmas but he has a chance to bounce back tonight against the Spurs who are not great against opposing centers. In the first matchup between these two teams we saw Gobert score 16 points and grab 14 rebounds while blocking two shots.

Top center of the day. He was the cover of the podcast and should be in a lot of lineups tonight. Wood went for 63 fantasy points against the Hornets in their first meeting, scoring 33 points with 16 rebounds, three assists and two blocks over 40 minutes.

The Clippers are playing on a back to back and in recent back to backs the team has limited Serge Ibaka. Ibaka played 19 minutes last night while Zubac played 27. In two of the last three games we have gotten 39 and 35 FP out of Zubac and I don't see Ibaka playing big minutes tonight.

Played 32 minutes in his return to the lineup on Christmas against the Lakers and went for 31 fantasy point on DK as he blocked five shots to go along with nine points, six rebounds and three assists. The Clippers are often a team opposing centers have success against and Claxton is a solid  value play on DK and Yahoo tonight.

By default I think we see a lot of minutes from Plumlee tonight as they are without both Washington and Bridges. Plulmee has been a sneaky fantasy producer at times in years past and this matchup against the Rockets could lead to a double-double type effort.

Punt play at the position. We discussed on the podcast how Knight had already been playing about 14 minutes over the past two games for the T'Wolves but now with both Towns and Reid out of the lineup there is a real good chance he starts at center for the T'Wolves tonight and sees a decent amount of minutes. At times last year we saw Knight start for the Hawks and be productive so I consider him a GPP dart if he starts tonight.

With news that DeAndre Ayton is now in the health and safety protocols we look to McGee to move into the starting lineup tonight against the Grizzlies. McGee was breaking slates a few weeks back and should be in for a nice workload here.