NBA DFS Playbook - January 5

SGA is cleared to play tonight and should go back to leading the Thunder in scoring and likely fantasy points tonight here as well. Lu Dort has been ruled out and with Dort off the floor this season SGA has a 33.7% usage rate while averaging 1.24 FP/Min. Prior to his covid stint we saw SGA dominating, putting up six straight games of at least 23 actual points with multiple 45+ fantasy point efforts.

Whelp, with no Giannis we know where the chalk will be tonight. With Giannis off the floor this season Holiday has a 30.5% usage rate while averaging 1.30 FP/Min. Holiday was already a favorite of mine on this slate given his recent run of performances and now the friendly matchup against the Raptors here as well.

No Jimmy Butler tonight and Miami is still without Bam Adebayo. With both off the floor this season Lowry has a 22.5% usage rate while averaging over a fantasy point per minute. The matchup against a Blazers team without Damian Lillard is also an appealing one. I look for Lowry to find his offense more in this high scoring matchup.

The Jazz could be missing multiple starters tonight which will be the weight of the production on the remaining core players which Conley is. He is coming off a 40 FP effort which has been few and far between for Conley at this point in his career but in a matchup against Denver tonight where the Jazz may need him to be more of an option on offense we may see that production repeated.

Simons filled in for the injured Damian Lillard and put forth a career best effort, scoring 43 points with three rebounds and seven assists. It's foolish to chase the points here in the sense that it is unlikely he drops another 40 points but we have seen Simons be an effective scorer when called up and he will need to play a lot of minutes tonight.

Off the covid list and ready to play tonight for the Wizards. Washington has been missing the majority of their backcourt for a spell but with Neto back there should be an immediate role for him in the rotation and we may even see him crack the starting lineup here. Great matchup against Houston and I have to think that even in a reserve role he gets 20-to-25 minutes.

Speaking of point chasing here, Sykes shot 8-of-16 from the floor and 4-of-8 from three-point range against the Knicks last night. He and Duane Washington started in the back court and are destined to do so again with LeVert, Brogdon and Duarte still out of the lineup. Both plays are risky but over the last few games the one thing we do know is that these guys are not afraid to shoot the basketball.

Beal has been on another level over the past few games as the Wizards have relied heavily on him with Spencer Dinwiddie out of the lineup and he has responded by not just providing the elite scoring but also 42 assists over the last four games as well. Love this spot against Houston with Dinwiddie and Montrezl Harrell once again out of the lineup.

Like I said above, the Jazz could be without Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic tonight and will already be without Joe Ingles who is in the healthy and safety protocols. We could get a ceiling game out of Mitchell tonight out of necessity if they are to hand with Denver.

The guy has hit seven threes in back-to-back games and continues to play a ton of minutes for the Raptors. Tonight's matchup was expected to be a tough one against Giannis and the defending champs but Giannis has been ruled out tonight so this matchup has become much more competitive. The price is expensive but he is coming up so clutch right now.

When Rozier is going the man is GOING. He scored 25 points against the Wizards the other night and has scored at least 25 points in three of the last four games. In those three games he has hit 17 three-pointers on 30 attempts. Great GPP play, especially against the Pistons who struggle defensively. 

No Butler no Bam so Herro is always an option on the table. He can go for 30+ actual points at the drop of a hat but his inconsistencies keep him as more of a GPP play tonight against the Blazers who do have some decent wing defenders.

No Maxey and no Milton tonight. We saw Curry start at point guard the other night and now has a great matchup against the Orlando Magic who may get Cole Anthony back tonight but had otherwise been starting 10-day contract players at the guard spots. Curry has a 23.9% usage rate and averages nearly a fantasy point per minute with both Maxey and Milton off the floor this season.

Should see close to 30 minutes tonight given the potential lack of depth in the Jazz rotation and that makes Clarkson a very intriguing option given his high usage rate when on the floor and scoring upside. He is a GPP only play at the price.

26 actual in back to back games for Hield who has once again broken into a consistent role in the ever changing Kings rotation. We tend to worry about jump shooters on the second night of a back-to-back but the Hawks are so depleted right now that Hield may just find himself open a lot tonight.

The Hawks are slowly getting healthier but Trae Young and Cam Reddish are actually both questionable to play tonight. If ONE or BOTH end up sitting then Huerter will see a nice usage bump, especially if it is Trae. That said, Huerter returned to the lineup and played a ton of minutes the other night. I expect the same to happen tonight in a good spot against the Kings.

GPP dart throw play here. Hyland has played 24 and 25 minutes over his last two games, including his return the other night. We are looking at a depleted Jazz team tonight and Hyland could get that blow out run on top of his usual rotation minutes as well. Will need to see the status of Monte Morris here as well. 

The price on DK is a bit much but he is actually a nice price on FanDuel where you get more points for steals and blocks. Diallo had back-to-back five steal games before his most recent outing. A fast paced game against the Hornets could certainly result in a solid outing here for Diallo once again who should be locked in for another 30+ minutes.

The return of SGA likely limits a bit of his scoring upside but Giddey continues to fill up the stat sheet, posting double-digit assist and rebound totals over the last two games. Good price on FanDuel and he is usable on DraftKings in game stacks.

He has the highest usage rate on the team with Giannis off the floor at 32%. That said, he may also draw the toughest matchup with the Raptors boasting two strong wing defenders in OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes. Middleton is certainly in play but if I had to pick one Buck to potentially struggle tonight I would go here.

No Lillard and no McCollum puts a lot of the offense on Powell in this spot against the Heat tonight. Miami missing Jimmy Butler is certainly a bonus for Powell who would have likely drawn that matchup. With Lillard and McCollum off the floor this season Powell has a 30.9% usage rate.

Safe as can be right now and tonight the Warriors are sitting both Otto Porter and Andre Iguodala which will shorten up their wing rotation a bit. Love the price and the matchup here isn't too shabby either. Good for all formats with a slight lean towards cash games over GPPs with Jordan Poole getting back into his groove.

The one thing we like about the Magic is the fact that they just play their guys so while this matchup for Orlando is not a good one we can at least count on Wagner staying on the floor and seeing enough volume here to come through for us more often than he doesn't. In the first meeting between these two teams we saw Wagner go for 27 points, six rebounds and five assists.

Strus was starting before landing on the covid list and now that he is ready to play tonight and with Jimmy Butler being ruled out we should expect him to move back into the starting lineup. Strus was playing real well as a starter and the matchup tonight should be a competitive one.  Prior to the last game we saw Strus play he went for at least 34 FP in four straight games.

Korkmaz started with Maxey and Thybulle out of the lineup and played 36 minutes against Houston and went off for 24 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. We have certainly been down this road with Korkmaz before where he flashes this GPP winning upside only to follow it up with a dud performance so buyer beware that the floor is as low as the ceiling is high.

Dude returned to the lineup and picked up right where he left off, shooting 6-of-10 from the floor and 4-of-8 from three-point range for 23 points, seven rebounds and one assist over 30 minutes. Matthews is having a career year for the rebuilding Rockets.

Gay may be in the starting lineup tonight with Joe Ingles already ruled out and the duo of Bojan Bogdanovic and Royce O'Neale both questionable to play. Either way I think the veteran cracks 20 minutes tonight and Gay has proven capable of still putting up strong fantasy production when on the floor.

Boy did he kill us last night or what? Sabonis finished with just 15 points while shooting 5-of-12 from the free throw line (I had over 5.5 free throws on PrizePicks..smh) while grabbing just eight rebounds. He has a chance to bounce back here tonight against the Nets whom he went for 40 FP against earlier this year but I think this one should come with a bit of a warning on the bust potential once again.

Bey is on another level right now, even the return of Cade Cunningham and Trey Lyles did little to slow him down as he went for 34 points, eight rebounds and four assists against Giannis and the Bucks. He is averaging 27.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.0 steals over the last four games while shooting 38.6% from three-point range. We really like this matchup against the Hornets tonight.

Chalk play right here for all formats. Kuzma has benefited from the absence of Dinwiddie and Harrell just as much if not more than Beal has. He is averaging 46 FP over his last five games and is coming off a game which he scored 36 points with 14 rebounds and six assists. He has scored 22 or more actual in four straight games while grabbing 10 or more rebounds in five of the last six games.

As I mentioned above, the Warriors are without both Otto Porter and Andre Iguodala tonight which should shorten their front court rotation a bit tonight. Green is a great cash game play as he is bankable when it comes to his across the board production as he flirts with low end triple-double production with some defensive stats mixed in. 

We saw Nwora play a big role when Giannis was out of the lineup a few weeks back and with both Grayson Allen and Patty Cons also out of the lineup tonight we could very well see a big role for him tonight once again. Now, Nwora himself is questionable to play so we need to pay attention to his status before loading him up.

Little played 36 minutes the other night as he was again in the starting lineup. He scored 22 points while pulling down nine boards with two assists and one steal. I've been a big fan of Little this season and the increased minutes should only continue to help his overall upside.

John Collins remains out of the lineup and so does Bogdan Bogdanovic. The Hawks may also be without Cam Reddish and Trae Young tonight as well. Gallinari returned to the Hawks lineup and played 34 minutes as he started the second half in place of Skylar Mays who had started for Cam Reddish. I think either way we see 25 or so minutes from Gallinari and he still has that offensive upside when the shot drops while adding in a few rebounds.

Safer and cheaper pivot off of Gallinari goes to Kleber. Now, he does have a tough matchup tonight as he goes up against Draymond but Kleber is a gritty player who doesn't need a ton of offensive production to his his value. He is a DK and Yahoo ONLY play. 

Jokic has a history of beating up on the Jazz as we discussed on last night's podcast. He may now get to face Utah without Rudy Gobert. With Giannis being ruled out he becomes the clear spend up play on the slate. The one caveat here is of course whether or not the Jazz stay competitive given the players they may be missing tonight.

I was initially out on Siakam given the matchup but with Giannis now sitting I can go back to him here. He has double-digit rebounds in three straight games and would have given us his fourth straight game of at least 50 FP if it were not for the blowout which allowed him to rest a bit and play only 28 minutes. The price is expensive but these Raptors players see a ton of playing time and the matchup is strong. 

Big ups here for Portis who scored at least 19 points in three of the four games that Giannis missed this season while grabbing at least nine rebounds in three of those four games as well. The matchup here also benefits Portis with Toronto playing more of a small ball lineup.

I think you can play both centers in this matchup. Nurkic has more scoring upside but we know that Yurtseven is a rebounding machine and has shown the ability to score as well. The other night he missed nearly the entire first quarter and still pulled down 17 rebounds. 

Assuming he is starting tonight this may be the chalk center play or at the very least he will find himself in a lot of lineups as a utility player. The price drop is certainly confusing, especially on DK where Wood was consistently in the $8,000+ range. The matchup here is also tasty with the Wizards among the worst teams in the NBA against opposing centers.

Lyles returned to the Pistons lineup, started, and played 34 minutes against the Bucks. He scored 11 points with seven rebounds and three assists in that game. Tonight he draws an elite spot against the Hornets who we always love to play opposing centers against.

Not sure we play him on FanDuel but on DraftKings and Yahoo tonight it will be tough to not have some GPP interest in Whiteside who may get the start with Gobert potentially out of the lineup. Whiteside is averaging 19 fantasy points over 15 minutes a night this season which speaks to the type of upside he can bring to the table if asked to play a bigger role even in a tough spot against Nikola Jokic.