Top-Tier
Walker Buehler, LAD – Buehler is having an incredible season with a 12-2 record, a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 162 strikeouts across 154.2 Innings pitched. He is in a groove right now with a 1.17 ERA and 55 strikeouts across his last 46.1 innings pitched (seven starts). In that timeframe he has scored at least 26 points on DK in six starts, a very impressive run and one that gives us a lot of confidence today. He faced these same Mets in his last start and was very dominant, firing seven innings of one-run ball while striking out 10. He should be able to do that again as the Mets are 28th in runs per game this season and are 26th in runs scored over the last 14 days.
Robbie Ray, TOR – Ray is having the second best season of his career with nine wins, a 2.88 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 167 strikeouts across 137.1 innings pitched. He has scored at least 20.0 points on DraftKings in 16 starts this year, while showing 40 point upside. He has a 1.85 ERA over his last seven starts with a .181 BAA. He has made two starts in Toronto so far, giving up a total of two runs across 12 innings, good for a 1.50 ERA. The Tigers have the fourth highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days at a 26.2-percent clip and they are 22nd in runs scored in that same span.
Chris Sale, BOS – Sale was sharp in his first start back from Tommy John surgery, firing five innings of two-run ball with EIGHT strikeouts against a Baltimore offense that has been strong against lefties all season. Sale has the BEST career K/9 in MLB HISTORY at an 11.1 mark. He gets a fantastic matchup against Texas in this one. The Rangers are 27th in runs scored over the past 14 days and are 29th in runs per game for the season; needless to say, they are far from a strong offense and Sale should have no issue slicing and dicing this lineup up. He is probably my favorite play of the day.
Mid-Tier
Sonny Gray, CIN – Gray’s 3.79 FIP is far better than his 4.47 ERA and his 11.2 K/9 this season is fantastic. He has been very up and down, with some dominant outings mixed in with some really poor outings. However, he does have at least seven strikeouts in nine of his past 16 starts and his upside is high with multiple 25+ DK point outings this year. This matchup against Miami is a good one. The Marlins have a 28.5-percent strikeout rate over the last 14 days, which is the second highest in the league in that span. They also rank 26th in runs scored this season with an average of 4.02 per contest. Gray should easily crush his price point in this one.
Blake Snell, SD – Snell appears to be locked in right now as he has a 1.59 ERA with 25 strikeouts over his last 17 innings pitched (three starts). I still wouldn’t trust him in cash games tonight, but he’s a great play in GPPs. He is a completely different pitcher at home this season with a 2.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 12.8 K/9, compared to a 7.01 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9 on the road. He faced Philly earlier this season and tossed four shutout innings against them with three strikeouts. The Phillies are 29th in runs scored over the last 14 days. Snell is an amazing SP2 with huge upside (as show in the fact that he dropped 42.8 points on DK just two starts ago).
Bargain Bin
Austin Gomber, COL – Gomber has some rough outings this season, but he’s also been really strong for the most part and his 3.98 FIP is better than his 4.09 ERA shows. He has been incredible at home this season with a 5-1 record, 1.70 ERA, and 0.85 WHIP, compared to a 4-6 record, 5.80 ERA, and 1.36 WHIP on the road. He faced the Dbacks earlier this year and fired six innings of two-run ball with four strikeouts in a win. They also have the seventh highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days at a 25.1-percent rate. He is dirt cheap, has been incredible at home, and has a great matchup. He is a fantastic SP2 if looking to spend up on some bats.
My top combos today: Sale/Gray – Sale/Gomber