Top-Tier
Willy Adames, MIL – Adames is slashing .293/.377/.542 across 80 games since joining the Brewers with 17 home runs, four steals, 23 doubles, 50 RBI, and 50 runs scored. Massive production. He has reverse splits this season, slashing .281/.355/.505 against righties, compared to .222/.305/.452 against lefties. Mahle also has massive reverse splits as righties are slashing .274/.344/.522 against him this season with 16 home runs, compared to the .180/.259/.280 line that lefties have produced with just four home runs. Not enough yet? Adames is 2-5 with a home run against Mahle in his career. This is a perfect storm of things for Adames to have a big day.
Mid-Tier
Pete Alonso, NYM – Alonso has been the one consistent force in the Mets lineup this season, hitting .258 with 28 home runs and 73 RBI. He is currently riding an eight-game hitting streak, hitting .313 with three home runs, eight RBI, and seven runs scored in that span while averaging 12 DK points per game. He has hit for a higher average against righties this season, BUT his OBP and SLG are both higher against lefties and he has 13 home runs in just 121 at-bats against lefties (9.3 at-bats per HR), compared to 15 home runs in 294 at-bats against righties (19.6 at-bats per HR). The Giants are sending Long to the hill and he has a 5.72 ERA this season and has been torched by right-handed bats as they are slashing .310/.380/.521 against him, compared to the .098/.178/.122 line that lefties have produced.
Mike Zunino, TB – Zunino has been on fire, hitting .342 with SIX home runs, nine RBI, and 12 runs scored over his last 11 games, averaging 12.2 points per game on DK in that span. He has also been absolutely insanely good against lefties this season, slashing .345/.418/.862 against them with 12 home runs in 87 at-bats (leading the MLB in SLG and OPS against them), compared to .144/.238/.407 against righties with 14 home runs in 167 at-bats. Despite all of that, he is the 10th priced catcher today and in a middle-tier price range. Does that make very much sense? Not to me it doesn’t, especially when the lefty he is facing is a mediocre one at best, despite what his ERA shows. Righties are slashing .213/.318/.315 against him with three home runs, compared to the .079/.183/.095 mark lefties have produced with zero home runs.
Amed Rosario, CLE – Rosario is having a nice season, hitting .289 with eight home runs, six triples, 12 steals, and 62 runs scored. He is super hot at the dish right now, hitting .402 with three home runs, three steals, 16 RBI, and 16 runs scored over the last 20 games and is currently riding a nine-game hitting streak. He has been incredible against lefties this season too, slashing .336/.381/.523 against them, compared to .265/.303/.369 against righties. He’s also been great at home, slashing .303/.351/.422 in Cleveland, compared to .276/.310/.422 on the road. There are too many reasons to like Rosario tonight and no reason to not like him.
Bargain Bin
Connor Joe, COL – Joe is hitting .317 with five home runs, 15 RBI, and 11 runs scored over the last 17 games, while operating as the team’s leadoff hitter for the last 14 games. He has been far better against lefties than righties, slashing .304/.377/.565 against lefties with four home runs in 46 at-bats, compared to .287/.371/.455 against righties with three home runs in 101 at-bats. Like most Rockies hitters Joe has been better at home, but he has been solid on the road, hitting .250 with a pair of home runs, so this being a road game isn’t super concerning to me.
Lars Nootbaar, STL – Nootbaar (one of my favorite names in the entire league by the way, but I digress) has been hot at the dish, hitting .364 with three home runs, six RBI, and six runs scored over his last 13 games (eight starts). He has started eight games straight and he has hit .310 in that span. He is slashing .289/.360/.533 against righties with all three of his home runs, compared to .200/.278/.333 against lefties with no home runs. Lefties have done the damage against Mize this season, slashing .260/.332/.548 against him with 16 home runs in 208 at-bats, compared to .219/.287/.323 for righties with six home runs in 251 at-bats. At nearly the minimum price, Nootbaar is a great play.