It’s a relatively full slate tonight with 13-games on tap for the main slates this evening. There are only a couple of games with weather concerns as far as delays go with the Cubs-Mets game leading the concern and Orioles-Indians not too far behind. Heat could also be a difference maker in at least one game tonight as the hotter the temps are, the more the ball will tend to carry.

Top Tier

Lance Lynn CHW - For the first part of the pitcher’s duel in Chicago we have Lynn who’s been great overall this year and next to impossible to hit at home with a sub-0.80 WHIP on the south side of ChiTown. The Rays the last two weeks, have been striking out 27.7-percent of the time against RHP while only being average offensively overall. Lynn’s last start he shut down the high-scoring Blue Jays for one run and four hits over seven frames, look for similar domination today.

Tyler Glasnow TB - What to do with Glasnow today? It’s an apt question because of the match-up. The White Sox strike out a ton on the road but less than 18-percent against RHP at home. Glasnow has struck out double-digit batters in seven of his 13 outings this year and has last seven innings in four of his last five starts. However, that was against teams that aren’t as tough to strikeout as the White Sox at home. He is a risk at this price because if he doesn’t get the strikeouts like we’ve become accustomed to, he doesn’t have a shot at hitting value.

Mid-Tier

Adam Wainwright STL - Wainwright, as stated in my Morning Buzz article, is far better at home, once again, than on the road this year. He’s posted a 2.62 ERA at Busch Stadium in eight starts while posting an 8.20 ERA on the road in four games. Guess what? He’s pitching in St. Louis tonight against a Marlins team that has struggled to find offense in their own right. Priced in the mid-tier on both sites he’s a good option today.

Austin Gomber COL - Hold up, we have a Rockies pitcher, at home, in the Pitching Coach? Yes, yes we do. Gomber has been outstanding at home this year with a sub-2.00 ERA and the Padres have been struggling quite a bit against LHP of late with a 28.6-percent K-rate and .211 wOBA against southpaws the last two weeks. The only concern here is that the weather will be hot in Denver so extra carry could lead to more runs on the board. Let’s bank on the lack of contact from the Padres bats in this one though and see if we can’t catch people napping on this match-up. The price is far better on DK than FD.

JT Brubaker PIT - The Nats are awful offensively right now. Yes they scored five runs yesterday, but four of them were off the bat of Kyle Schwarber, who himself has been highly inconsistent. Brubaker has been a lot better at home than on the road to this point with a 2.67 ERA in Pittsburgh compared to a 4.91 away from PNC Park and the WHIP is 1.04 compared to 1.31 on the road. 

Value Tier

Jake Arrieta CHC - Arrieta on the surface hasn’t looked great in his last 10 starts with 26 ER allowed in 41 innings, however 13 of those came in just 5.1 innings, giving him a 3.28 ERA in the other 35.2 IP. The Mets over the last two weeks against RHP at home, are over 30-percent in the K-rate and have a .259 wOBA and 73 wRC+. Arrieta has also looked solid in a prior meeting with the Mets earlier this year. If he avoids the blow up, he could be a nice SP2 play.

Vladimir Gutierrez CIN - Gutierrez has been quite reliable for the Reds since coming into the rotation with three very good starts. The last time on the bump he faced Milwaukee in Cincinnati and went seven innings with seven Ks and two earned. Now he gets that Brewers team in Milwaukee and they could be down a bat or two based on Yelich not playing Sunday and giving folks a day off. With his stuff still fresh in their minds it could be a tougher match-up, but at this price he’s worth it for some different builds.

Jon Lester WAS - As with all of the budget pitchers, there is risk here in that Lester hasn’t been all that great of late nor has he lasted that long into games in three of his last four, however, facing the Pirates could turn that around. They have been striking out nearly 26-percent of the time against southpaws the last two weeks and have a terrible .240 wOBA and 50 wRC+ as a team. As an SP2 on DK he’s worth a small shot in multi-entry GPPs.