There’s a nine game slate on tap tonight with some big names on the bump. There’s also a couple of games with weather issues like Chicago and Cleveland that will need monitoring before lineup lock to see about chances for delays or PPDs.
Top Tier
Freddy Peralta MIL - Peralta has been (insert emoji) fire this year as the number three guy for Milwaukee. The Cubs are licking their wounds from a bad series in LA that ended late last night and now they fly back to Milwaukee to start a key series for the lead in the NL Central and that jetlag could better this match-up. The Cubs have struck out 35-percent of the time against RHPs the last two weeks and have a woeful .256 wOBA and 61 wRC+ and Peralta has slammed the door on the Cubs in the last two meetings this year with a sub-2.00 ERA and has been even better at home with a 1.55 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over 46.1 IP.
Trevor Bauer LAD - Bauer has been great for the Dodgers this year and even better at home with a 2.46 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over 33 innings. The Giants make the trip to LA for tonight's game and that favors Bauer, though the advanced metrics don't necessarily favor him in K-rate or wOBA or wRC+ recently. Rivalry games can have unexpected outcomes and with a pitcher who's shut down this offense previously this year over a 6.1 inning outing with 11 Ks and no earned runs allowed. You'll have to pay up for him but those daring enough to do so in a match-up that's tougher than normal, could see dividends.
Mid-Tier
Zack Greinke HOU - It’s clear that Greinke has lost a bit this year but he’s still managing to get guys out in a variety of ways including having a good start against Baltimore last time out. He’s not been as good at home as he’s been on the road but it’s still Baltimore and their offense isn’t exactly an overpowering one having struck out 27-percent of the time against RHP the last two weeks with a .279 wOBA and 76 wRC+ which are both below-average.
Anthony DeSclafani SF - DeSclafani has been a favorite go-to of mine this year and for good reason as the numbers speak to him having a very good year for the Giants. He’s been touched up a bit more of late and especially by the Dodgers in two previous starts. However, the last start out against them he only gave up two in 4.2 innings with seven Ks so most of the damage was in one start. He’s also been very good on the road, which is where the game is for the Giants, and that helps him out too. He’ll be a GPP play for Monday.
Value Tier
Michael King NYY - King has been far better at home than on the road this year with a 2.70 home ERA compared to a 5.94 road mark. The Angels for their part have been striking out a quarter of the time against RHPs the last two weeks and as long as he can limit the damage from Ohtani, there’s not much else in this lineup to hurt him aside from Jared Walsh. He’s a good GPP dart throw for a budget price.