Top Tier
Julio Urías, LAD - The Dodgers just clinched a playoff spot, however the NL West title is still very much up for grabs and the Dodgers will need all of the boost they can get against the subpar teams like the Diamondbacks. Urias has owned the D’backs this year with a sub-1.00 ERA against them and a 15:0 K:BB ratio in 11.2 innings against them. As if that’s not good enough, he’s allowed a grand total of three earned runs in his last 28.2 innings on the hill with 31 strikeouts to five walks. He’s clearly the top option tonight and it’s not that close.
Mid-Tier
Huascar Ynoa, ATL - At home he’s pitched to a 2.46 ERA and 49 Ks to 11 walks in 40.1 innings of work this year. Yes, I know the Rockies hit Ynoa pretty well the last time they faced him but that was in Coors and now this one is in Atlanta which gives the advantage back to the pitcher. Let’s add in that the Rockies are hitting just .220 with a .283 wOBA and a 24.2-percent K-rate against southpaws in the last few weeks, and we’ve got a recipe for success tonight.
Nestor Cortes, NYY - Nasty Nestor is back on the bump for the Yankees and while the Orioles have been solid against lefties of late, Cortes has been better than your average southpaw. In four of his last five starts he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs and has struck out seven in three of those. Baltimore doesn’t have anything, but a draft spot, to play for while the Yankees are still trying to lock down a playoff spot so expect Cortes to be close to his best tonight.
Ranger Suárez, PHI - While the Cubs have been solid against southpaws recently, Suarez is just too good at home to not be a factor tonight. He’s not allowed more than an earned run in four straight starts and his home splits for ratios and K:BB marks are better than the road marks. In 44.1 innings in Philly, the southpaw has allowed just one homer and the Cubs have an ISO of just .125 recently against lefties. He’s a very good price for the upside he brings.
Value Tier
John Means, BAL - Means hasn’t been the same since coming back from the injury but the good news is that he’s started to put it back together in his last few starts on the mound with three straight starts of two earned runs or less and five or more strikeouts. The Yankees continue to struggle against lefties recently with a nearly 24-percent K-rate, a .239 team average, and well-below-league-average wOBA and wRC+ marks. Means should be able to shut down the Bronx Bombers once more on Wednesday.
Jon Lester, STL - Lester has been quite solid with the Cardinals since coming over at the deadline and has actually been better away from St. Louis for them as well. Tonight’s game is against a reasonably familiar foe in the Mets. In the last four starts overall he’s allowed five total earned runs and in the last few weeks, the Mets as a team have a .238 batting average and are below-average in wRC+.