The action is divided on Thursday across the sites into some interesting slates but the main slate, and the one for this Value Vault piece, is the one that starts at 1:10 pm ET with the Cardinals and Brewers game. Yahoo has an all day slate and this piece will focus on the players on that slate from the early games only. There doesn’t appear to be any weather concerns on the early part of the day in terms of delays or PPD chances.
All Sites
Kyle Freeland, LHP COL ($5,000 DK / $6,600 FD / $31 Y!)
Okay. So have I lost my mind? Freeland? Are we serious? Yes, I’m quite serious given his record against the Dodgers this year. While the game is in Colorado and that generally means good things for the bats, it’s not like Dodger Stadium isn’t a hitter’s haven either and yet, Freeland has managed to strike out 17 Dodgers this year without walking one in 19 innings facing them. He’s also posted a 2.84 ERA against them and just a .211 BAA which are both well below his seasonal marks and his 0.79 WHIP is just under half what his season mark is there too. In three of his last five starts he’s also gone at least six innings and given up just four total earned runs for a 1.71 ERA in those starts.
David Peralta, OF ARI ($3,400 DK / $2,700 FD / $11 Y!)
Clearly it hasn’t been a great season for either him nor the Diamondbacks but that doesn’t preclude him from being playable every so often in DFS. This is one of those every-so-often times. He’s 6-for-9 with a homer off of Charlie Morton in past meetings and he’s still hitting in the middle of the Diamondbacks which adds a bit more value if some guys get on in front of him.
Yahoo
Mark Canha, OF OAK ($14) - There’s risk here, as he’s not been great over the last 10 games or so in terms of power and average but a match-up against Kikuchi might be exactly what he needs. He’s faced the Seattle lefty 15 times before and taken him deep twice for a .474 wOBA and even with his struggles recently, he still has a .321 wOBA versus lefty pitchers this year. He is kind of an all or nothing play right now but there is some speed upside too with 12 steals on the year.
Matt Olson, 1B OAK ($19) - Olson is tied for the most homers off of left-handed pitchers in a season as a left-handed hitter in the history of baseball. You read that right. In the history of MLB he, Barry Bonds, and Griffey Jr. twice, have had 21 homers in a season off of lefty pitchers. He’s hit four homers in the last 10 games and six this year against Seattle pitchers and two off of Kikuchi in previous meetings. He’s the fifth priciest first baseman (of the early games) on Yahoo.
DraftKings
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B STL ($4,100) - Goldy has a .389 wOBA in 17 career meetings with Houser and that includes two homers. This year off of RHPs, he’s launched 21 homers and produced 64 RBI and has been a .291 hitter away from Busch stadium.
Matt Chapman, 3B OAK ($4,200) - Are we tired of A’s yet? Well it’s hard not to play them against a, to paraphrase a term from Howard, tomato can of a pitcher. Chapman is 5-for-15 with two homers off of Kikuchi with a .412 wOBA. He’s also hit 14 homers off of lefties this year and the Mariners’ starter hasn’t been great against RHHs with a .358 wOBA and more than an .830 OPS. He’s the 10th-highest priced third baseman today on DK and that’s too low for a guy of his caliber who’s also hit three homers in the last 10 games.
FanDuel
Jarred Kelenic, OF SEA ($3,000) - Kelenic has been on a tear in September with a .283/.348/.650 slash line, six homers, 15 RBI, 12 runs, and a few steals. Even with all of his struggles early, he still has a .302 wOBA and 11 homers off of righties this year and it’s Chris Bassitt’s first start back since being hit in the face with a liner about a month ago. One last tidbit is this: he’s hitting better on the road than at home in all facets and the wind is blowing out at Oakland today.
Tommy Edman, 2B STL ($3,000) - Edman is 3-for-10 off of Houser in their careers but the big edge goes to Edman this year as Houser is allowing a .330 wOBA to lefty hitters this year and with Edman being a switch-hitter, he’ll hit lefty today. Edman also brings speed to the value vault with 29 steams on the year and he’s really been swiping them with regularity recently with three in the last 10 games while hitting .295.
Player News
Brandon Marsh came off the bench to go 2-for-3 with the game-winning hit as the Phillies edged the Cubs 4-3 in 11 innings on Monday.
This one shouldn’t have been so close, given that the Phillies outhit the Cubs 12-4 in regulation and 16-5 by game’s end. Some baserunning mistakes set them back, though. Marsh was out of the lineup against a lefty, as per usual, but he entered the game in the seventh and wound up with his first career walkoff hit with the bases loaded and no outs in the 11th. He was facing just a two-man outfield at the time, but his shot to center left the bat at 105 mph and traveled 380 feet; even if Pete Crow-Armstrong had been playing straight up, he probably wouldn’t have been able to get to it.
Zack Wheeler held the Cubs to one run and three hits over six innings in a no-decision on Monday.
He left with a one-run lead, but it was blown by Matt Strahm in the eighth. Wheeler had a little extra velocity tonight after missing a turn for the birth of his child, averaging 96.6 mph with his fastball. He got 17 missed swings, including nine on his 42 fastballs, and he struck out seven. He’ll probably make his next start Sunday against the Blue Jays.
Jordan Romano worked a perfect 10th in a tie game against the Cubs on Monday.
Romano had given up single runs in three straight appearances, taking losses twice, so he needed a rebound outing, even if he was rather unlucky in the losses. The easy inning tonight should keep him in line for save chances. It also doesn’t hurt his cause that Matt Strahm blew a one-run lead in the seventh tonight.
Matthew Boyd yielded two runs — one earned — in six innings Monday against the Phillies.
Boyd has a 25% strikeout rate this season, but he actually went a K tonight. Fortunately, most of the contact against him was pretty weak; just seven of the Phillies’ 22 balls in play were hit hard. We wouldn’t want Boyd giving up this much contact often, but it worked out fine in this one, and he’ll carry a 2.89 ERA into his next start at home versus the Pirates.
Daniel Palencia took a loss after getting charged with two runs in the 11th against the Phillies on Monday.
Palencia pitched a scoreless bottom of the 10th after the Cubs failed to score in the top of the inning, and the Cubs left him in after they took a one-run lead in the 11th. Things went badly after that. J.T. Realmuto immediately tied the game with a leadoff single, and afterwards, the Phillies put down two sac bunt attempts, both of which turned into infield singles. With the bases loaded and no one out, the Cubs went to a five-man infield, and Brandon Marsh launched one to the wall in left-center that probably would have been a double under normal circumstances. Tonight, it was a walkoff single. Palencia didn’t really do anything to hurt his standing, and he’s still the clear favorite for saves in Chicago. He also threw just 14 pitches tonight, so he might be available on Tuesday.
Bryan Reynolds went 2-for-5 with a three-run triple on Monday, powering the Pirates to a 10-3 blowout victory over the Marlins.
The Pirates are undefeated since the Steelers signed Aaron Rodgers over the weekend. Just saying. Reynolds sliced a tie-breaking triple into the right-center field gap with the bases loaded against Marlins starter Eury Pérez in the third inning. The 30-year-old outfielder’s go-ahead knock opened the floodgates to an eventual lopsided win as Pittsburgh scored 10 runs on 15 hits. He’s started to really heat up in recent weeks, batting .333 (19-for-57) with two homers and 14 RBI over his last 15 games.