NASCAR DFS: YellaWood 500 Playbook

Blaney has won these races before and specifically at Talladega a couple of races ago. You can also make the argument that he’s been the best Talladega driver in the Penske ranks in a few ways. He has the most top-10s in the last five races, the best average finish, and the second-best average Driver Rating in the field as well.

Hamlin won this race last year starting on the pole which is exactly where he’s starting this time as well. He does have a history of dropping back to the back of the field and waiting out the craziness which could hurt the laps led chances for him. That being said, he does average the fourth most laps led per race, though that’s just 17 and change.

Byron did win the Daytona race last August to make the playoffs and has two top-fives in his last five trips to Alabama. The Hendrick Chevys are typically fast at these tracks and have been known to run up front early quite well. The issue for Byron is can he avoid dropping to mid-pack at the wrong time and wrecking out. If he can, he’s a solid GPP option.

Chastain has an average PD of 10.7 and has finished in the top-20 twice out of his three Talladega races. Out of his six plate races overall, he’s finished in the top-20 five times and averaged 7.6 PD spots which makes him not only consistent but a very good play at this starting spot.

Haley is somewhat of a plate racing whisper at this point having won four of the last seven Xfinity plate races and has shown very well in the Cup series too with a win and a couple more top-10s. He’ll be popular starting back this far and for good reason which is why he’s priced up this far as well.

Almirola has four top-15s in the last five races here and six top-20s in the last nine plate races as well. If he pulls off his average finish of 13.6 here, that’s several spots of PD and makes him a solid play in both formats.

Allgaier hasn’t run here in the Cup series but has plenty of experience in the Xfinity series and was running well yesterday before chaos ensued. In fact he has a strong plate background at that level and the guy he drives for, Dale Jr. dominated at Talladega in his career and loves this style of racing and has made mention that he mentors his drivers in the plate tips and tricks.

This is another track that Elliott has done well at previously but is quite inconsistent in his career. He did win here couple of races back, under caution, and typically does better here than Daytona. The problem is the starting spot. If he hangs around the front, that’s a long time to pull that off, but if he drops back to avoid issues, he still needs to make it back up front to bring even PD value. He’s a GPP option.

Keselowski is known as one of the best plate racers in the field, and he’s had better history at ‘Dega than at Daytona. His spotter comes in handy as well as he’s widely regarded as the best plate race spotter in the business. Keep in mind he was in a spot to win the Daytona 500 to start the year until his teammate blocked him and wrecked him before winning here in the Spring.

Logano is right there with his teammate, Keselowski, in terms of record on plate tracks and at Talladega as well. It’s splitting hairs between them but the risk with Logano is that he seems to be the one that starts more of the bad block wrecks than anyone else. If he can time his blocks better, there’s no reason he can’t be competing for the win late but that’s always the risk with him at these tracks.

Newman has been a stalwart in these playbooks for a while and it’s for good reason as he clearly has a feel for this style of racing. His average finish of 10.2 in the last five races here shows that off as does the four top-15s in that same span. This might be his last time in this style of racing as well so why not get him in a lineup one last time.

Buescher hasn’t lit the world on fire here but he’s a solid plate racer with a good average finish over the last nine races in this discipline. His starting spot in the mid-20s is nice too and statistically it’s a top-15 scoring spot.

Dillon has won on plate tracks before and seems to be a guy who’s in the conversation to lead late more often than not. While he’s out of the playoffs, he’s still hunting for his next win and given that more winners have come from the top-16 in the grid here recently. Dillon has been consistent here recently too with four top-15s in the last five races.

We’ve noted for a while now that LaJoie has been a strong driver at plate tracks and that won’t change this weekend. He’s starting P29 on Sunday and has posted 13 spots of PD on average in his last five trips to Alabama. That aligns well with where he’s starting and over the last eight races on plate tracks, he’s second in the field in laps completed indicating he can stay on track for a while.

If you’ve seen the rankings for this week, you’ll notice that Preece is high in all formats. The record speaks for itself with five top-20s in the last five races here with four of those being top-15. He’s also averaged a whopping 17 spots of PD in that span. Starting P27 and being this cheap is going to make him a very popular play for all formats.

Jones has been a sneaky good plate racer in his career with a couple of top-fives including P2 last Fall. Also keep in mind that Wallace was in the 43-car previously when he had his good finishes at plate tracks so they know how to make a fast plate setup even for a different driver.

Reddick has finished P7 in two straight races here while starting P30 and P20 respectively in those events. His aggressive racing style fits well here and keep in mind that his teammate is one of the better plate racers in the field which helps him to learn the drafting skills needed. People might stay a bit away from him given that he’s starting P13 but at his price he doesn’t need much to hit value.

It has seemed like DiBenedetto has had a shot to win each of the last few plate races until something goes wrong late in the run with either a bad block or leaving a lane open. The fact that he’s been in position though is certainly good to see and his average run position is about eight spots higher than his average finish indicating that he’s used to running higher than he gets credit for on the final line.

McDowell won the Daytona 500 and when we played him in that race part of the argument was that he ranks among the top in the field in laps completed per race in this style. That matters, as we saw on Saturday, because the longer a driver is on the track, the further up in the field they’ll move and the more points they’ll post.

Wallace has proven himself to be a very good plate racer and a guy that can move up the field well and even run up front from time to time. He’s posted a couple of top-20s at Dega but when you include Daytona into things, he adds four top-fives as well. He is starting P19 which is a bit riskier but his finish history is enough to overcome that.

Alfredo finished P12 here in the Spring and has a couple of top-20s in his four career Cup plate races. While he hasn’t looked great at regular races, he’s surprisingly looked good at plate races and that’s what counts this week. In a wild card race, it can be a good idea to get a wild card of a driver into a lineup.

First of all, congratulations to the Briscoes on the birth of their son. While that is a narrative this weekend for him, we’re more interested in the fact that he’s proven to be a solid plate racer in the Cup and Xfinity series in his career. While he is starting P17 and that’s not necessarily comfortable, nothing is comfortable at Dega, and he finished P11 here in the Spring.