NASCAR DFS: Bank of America ROVAL 400 Playbook

Allmendinger is clearly a road course master at this point and he’s dominated at road races in the Xfinity series this year. The last two times he’s run a Roval-type track in the Cup series he’s finished in the top-10 and averaged 11 spots of PD in each race. Starting P33 he’ll be chalky and they priced him up for that reason.

It’s Elliott on a road course and one that he’s won at the last two times they’ve raced here. He’s got a bit of PD on his side this time too starting P8 and he’s got to have a good day to make it through to the next round of the playoffs has he’s just nine points to the good in the standings right now.

Larson has won a couple road races this year and has led laps here previously, in the 42-car. We can’t count Larson out any week at this point given the body of work he’s put up this year and at this track specifically when Hendrick has brought great setups for the cars each of the last three years.

It’s been a little while since Truex has found victory lane at a road course but he’s still been a threat at each one recently. In the last 10 road races in general, he’s posted seven top-10s and an average finish of 9.6. That combined with him being second in the field in quality passes per race in the last five Roval races means he’s got the know how and the ability to stay toward the front of the pack on Sunday. Let’s also not forget he was in position to win the first Charlotte Roval race until getting spun in the final corner.

We mentioned Byron on the podcast as a guy who could be a sneaky GPP play as a guy who’s always seemed to be contention for a high-finish at road races recently. He’s posted three top-10s in the last five Roval-type races and four total top-10s in the last 10 road races overall. He’s below the cutline heading into Sunday right now and so he could pull some desperation moves to get points late and that could help him in DFS. Byron is also third in Quality Passes per race and fifth in Driver Rating in the last five races as well.

Hamlin is a bit of an interesting guy to figure out this week. On one hand he’s a solid road racer with two top-fives in the last five Roval races and five top-fives in the last 10 road races and he’s led a handful of laps on average as well. On the other hand though, he’s on the pole and he’s already locked into the Round of 8. So the question is one of motivation quite frankly. It’s tough to play him in cash for the fear that he doesn’t lead many, if any, laps and he doesn’t have position differential on his side either. Hamlin is fine in GPPs.

Chastain has been a different driver on road courses this year and it’s clearly been on display with a few top-10s already to his credit this year when right turns are involved. He’s starting pretty far back this week but that hasn’t stopped him before from moving up either. At this price he needs a top-10 finish to hit the desired 5x, though that’s not as important this week as with most road courses. Chastain is fine for both formats on both sites but he could still be chalky given the recency bias we usually see.

Blaney won the first race at the Roval and he’s been fast on road races with four top-15s in the last five Roval events. He’s starting P6 on Sunday which means he’ll either need to hang in the top-five or lead laps to have a shot at getting value. He’s better suited for GPPs because of this but he’s also the kind of driver that can be a slate breaker on road courses as Blaney’s averaged better than 6x value on the last two Roval events.

Four top-10s and the fourth-best average finish (7.2) in the last five Roval-type races is what Bowman brings to the table this week. Starting P12 he could easily threaten for a top-five finish here given how he’s shown growing speed on recent road races and he tends to mimic his teammate Elliott’s setup on these tracks and we all know how well that works out.

Chase Elliott and one other driver have three top-fives in the last five Roval races and that other driver is Busch. That being said, he’s also posted two finishes outside the top-10 to give an average finish of 9.4 in that span. That kind of consistency though is enough to make him a strong play in either format and a guy who might be under the radar a bit simply because of the starting spot for Sunday.

Bell won the Daytona Road Course race earlier this year which was a bit of a surprise, but shouldn’t necessarily have been given that he was a solid road racer in the lower series as well. He’s starting P4 this weekend which is a tricky spot as we need him to lead laps or rack up fastest laps all while finishing in the top-five to hit value this week. It is possible for him to do that and he’s still fighting to stay in the playoffs as well with it likely taking a win to have him advance at this point.

As discussed on the podcast, Harvick is more the type of driver to just hang around in the top-10 rather than to outright lead laps at road races, typically. Two years ago in this race he led a decent amount of laps and then finished P3 but most of the time in the last five have been spent hanging inside the top-10. That’s not terrible but we might need a bit more from him even at this price point and to be honest, he needs more as he’s on the outside looking in on the Round of 8 right now.

Logano has a similar record to Harvick at these races recently with the main difference being that he finishes higher on average over the last five and 10 road races. He’s not missed a top-10 in the last five Roval events and has the second-best average finish in the field in that span at 6.6. Logano is a bit more GPP-friendly though simply due to starting P3 and not having the PD on his side but still having a shot to lead early laps.

DiBenedetto is really known as a road racer and now has massive PD upside with this starting spot. While he’s out of the playoffs, it’s still a desperate time for him to have a great showing as he has no deal in place for next year for the Cup series and so having a great run could help solidify a ride. Given his average finish is double-digits better than his starting spot, there’s major value at this price still.

Haley is surprisingly good at road races with a top-10 and average finish of 25.2 in the last five Cup road races he’s been in. Starting P38 there is plenty of built in position differential with this starting spot and the 77-car is decent enough to get him that PD. On FanDuel he’s a free square at this price and on DK he’s not bad but still decently priced to keep him from being an automatic play. The PD upside makes him a cash game play to be sure.

Suarez loves road racing as he’s stated before and he’s been producing good running positions in those races. The problem is that his equipment hasn’t always lived up to his runs to that point. In each of the last few road races he’s had some sort of mechanical issue so there is risk, especially at a track that causes a ton of mechanical issues by itself, but if his skill shows up again and his car holds together, he’s got value at this starting spot.

Buescher is an under-the-radar road racer with five top-20s in the last five races at Charlotte and Daytona Rovals and one of those was a top-five finish. He will start P16 and averages a handful of PD per race over the last several road races but the starting spot might scare some folks away since it’s a bit higher than folks might want to play him at but the upside is still there if he gets a top-12 finish.

It’s yet another week where Preece comes in with a good history at these types of tracks and showed well in past races this year as well. Prior to the last three road races he had four-straight top-21 finishes on road courses dating back to the Roval last year. The starting spot really helps his upside this week as he rolls off P31 and at this price he’ll be everyone’s favorite cheap play.

Custer has two top-15s in his three tries on Roval courses with more than 7.5 spots of PD per race in that span. He posted four top-20s in the first five road races this year and was running well at Indy Road until the curb issue cost him a good finish. Custer is starting P23 and has a shot at a top-15 if he comes with a setup like he’s used on other Roval tracks.

LaJoie is a guy we like to look at any time they’re in this 750-horsepower package and at road courses as well as he just seems to always outperform expectations. He’s posted three top-20s in the last 10 road races all of which have happened since COTA. Starting P26 it’s quite conceivable that he makes it to the top-20 on Sunday.

Alfredo is a dart throw this week. Then again he’s basically a dart throw every week at this point. He did run well at the Daytona Road course and for some the starting position may not be all that attractive, rolling off P20. That’s the thing though is that he doesn’t really have to do much to hit value at that spot. If he finishes P20 or P21 he hits value at this price point. That being said he’s certainly a better play for GPPs and only as a way to get another top-priced option into your builds.