Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks
Over/Under: 219
Spread: MIL -7
After dropping the first game of the series, Milwaukee dispatched the Hawks with relative ease to win the next two games. Things will be interesting tonight as Trae Young is clearly hobbled with a foot injury. The Atlanta superstar is listed as questionable, and it’s hard to believe he won’t take the court tonight, but he will be limited at best and the Hawks will have to find other ways to compensate as we keep an eye out for any crumb of news prior to lineup lock.
Injuries:
*Giannis Antetokounmpo – Probable (calf)
*Trae Young – Questionable (foot)
*Bogdan Bogdanovic – Probable (knee)
CPT/MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo – While the forward is listed on the injury report, I wouldn’t pay it any attention as he certainly wasn’t limited in Game Three. Antetokounmpo hasn’t had many issues doing whatever he wants against Atlanta and he is coming off a 33-point, 11 rebound performance in 40 minutes of action. At this point Antetokounmpo is a lock for about 50 fantasy points and he has consistently shown upside to around 70. With Young limited at best, we are looking at the best (and most expensive) option on the slate.
Khris Middleton – If you are looking in another direction, then Antetokounmpo’s sidekick should be squarely on your radar. Middleton picked things up after the first two games of the Nets’ series and he has emerged as a true offensive threat. In the fourth quarter on Sunday the forward was all Milwaukee needed as he outscored the Hawks on his own in the fourth quarter with 20 points. Overall, Middleton put up 38 points on the night while adding 11 rebounds and seven assists for a complete effort. It was a nice bounce back performance after combining for 30 points in the first two games of the series and no one else offers this much upside.
Trae Young – I could be wrong, but Young did come back after injuring his foot on Sunday although he was limited, so my expectation is that he will be out there tonight. If Young doesn’t play, I’m not sure that Atlanta has a chance as he scored 35 points in 39 minutes in Game Three and it’s clear who the offense runs through. It is worth noting that Young didn’t have a rebound on Sunday and with only four assists, it’s hard to make much of a DFS impact. Unless we have real clarity and comfort surrounding Young’s status and health, I’m inclined to stay away here. At the same time, this could create a contrarian situation if you are throwing up multiple GPP entries.
MID-TIER
Jrue Holiday – It was been quite the productive series for Holiday who kicked it off by scoring 33 points and followed that up with 22 points. Holiday has also been involved as a facilitator for Milwaukee with just under 10 assists per game. On Sunday, Holiday’s offense dropped down to just six points but Milwaukee also didn’t need much from him on the offensive end. Even with the lack of scoring, Holiday still put up 40 FD points as he continues to fill the stat sheet throughout this postseason (aside from the first two games against Brooklyn).
John Collins – With a limited Young someone needs to step up offensively for Atlanta and Collins might be in position to pick up some of the slack. The concern though is that Collins has only played a combined 47 minutes in the last two games (24 and 23, respectively) but he has reached double figures both times averaging 12 points and eight rebounds. That was on the heels of a 23-point, 15 rebound performance to kick off the series and Collins is very capable of hitting those numbers again.
Clint Capela – The issue with Capela is that he simply hasn’t been producing offensively (a common theme for Atlanta these days) with just 10 points in the last two games. After grabbing 19 rebounds in Game One, Capela has that total in the next two games combined as he has failed to truly stand out. In five of his last six games he has failed to hit the 30 FD point mark and I wouldn’t expect for that trend to change.
DART THROWS
Kevin Huerter – As far as darts go, Huerter is on the expensive side but his performance has been too up and down to truly trust on a consistent basis. He will benefit from any type of limitations Young has but Huerter can stand on his own as he did have a 27-point game against Philadelphia in the second round. Huerter has consistently played more than 30 minutes per night but what stood out to me was his seven assists on Sunday and he has also been chipping on the boards as well.
Danilo Gallinari – Gallinari had his highest workload of the postseason playing 35 minutes on Sunday which led to 18 points and four rebounds. That is a typical outcome for the forward who has become one of the more consistent offensive threats for Atlanta but is also one-dimensional from a DFS perspective.
Bobby Portis – The forward consistently plays about 15 minutes and he has reached double figures twice in three games against Atlanta averaging 11.3 points and five rebounds per game. Portis gives us a good chance at least 20 fantasy points tonight and there is value in that predictability and offensive ability off the bench.
P.J. Tucker - Tucker continues to get a heavy workload thanks to his defensive, and playing time is half the battle here. The forward has only scored eight points in the first three games of the series but he is averaging just over seven rebounds per game along with a few assists which makes for a solid DFS value.
Lou Williams – We know that Williams has the ability to percolate quickly off the bench on the offensive end, but in three games against Atlanta he has a combined 13 points. This is a dart throw in the truest sense of the word as Williams is cheap and hasn’t shown much against the Bucks, but he has the most to gain if Young is truly limited or sidelined as he would vault up the depth chart.
Player News
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Zach Edey will undergo surgery to re-stabilize his left ankle.
Charania’s report indicates that Edey re-sprained the same ankle that forced him to miss some time last season. It came during an offseason workout, and he is expected to miss time to start next season. Edey secured the starting center spot for Memphis late last season after playing an inconsistent role for most of his rookie year. Head coach Tuomas Iisalo could opt to use Brandon Clarke as the starting center if he’s healthy, or he could use a smaller starting lineup with Jaren Jackson Jr. to start next season. The Grizzlies’ PR team announced that a preliminary timeline will be provided after he has the surgery, but as of now, the expectation is that he won’t be available for opening night.
De’Aaron Fox (finger) has been cleared for on-court work and will be ready for the start of next season.
Fox underwent season-ending surgery on his left pinkie finger in mid-March, about six weeks after being traded to the Spurs from Sacramento. He recently told Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle that he’s been cleared to resume on-court activities, which have included some 5-on-5 play. Also, Fox hopes to ink a contract extension with the Spurs this offseason. With one year remaining on his current deal, the point guard will be eligible for a four-year extension worth up to $229 million on August 3.
NBC Sports Boston’s Chris Mannix said recently that Sam Hauser could be a trade candidate this offseason if the Celtics decide to shed salary.
The cost of contending for championships has gotten steeper, especially with the salary cap rules instituted in recent years. For the Celtics, the Achilles tendon rupture suffered by Jayson Tatum may impact how the front office approaches this offseason. If the team decides that a group that won’t have Tatum for most of the season can’t be a factor in the East, the decision could be made to shed salary. And Hauser, whose four-year, $45 million extension goes into effect next season, may be a prime candidate to be moved. “Hauser, to me, is the most likely candidate to go, just because you have (Baylor) Scheierman there to effectively fill his role,” Mannix said. “I think they’d love to find a home for Jrue Holiday, just because of the contract and where they are as a team. (Kristaps) Porzingis, who knows? I don’t think they want to take on contracts that go on longer than Porzingis’ deal, but he’s certainly available.” Hauser being traded would make Scheierman worth a look in deep fantasy leagues next season.
NBA insider Marc Stein reported the Knicks are interested in talking to Mavericks coach Jason Kidd regarding the team’s head coaching vacancy.
Multiple names have been mentioned in the aftermath of the Knicks’ decision to fire Tom Thibodeau after he led the team to its first Eastern Conference Finals since 2000. One who has been mentioned prominently is Kidd, who is under contract with the Mavericks. His connection with Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson may be a factor, as the captain has repeatedly credited the coach with his development as a professional. However, Dallas would need to grant the Knicks permission to speak with Kidd. And if a deal were to be made, New York does not have much draft capital to give up as compensation. Also mentioned in connection with the opening are Cavaliers assistant Johnnie Bryant, Timberwolves coach Chris Finch and Rockets coach Ime Udoka. Stein also reported that Houston would quickly deny permission to speak with Udoka if the Knicks were to make that request.
Obi Toppin provided a boost off the bench with 17 points (6-of-9 FGs), five rebounds, two assists and five three-pointers in Game 1 against the Thunder on Thursday.
Toppin has been solid throughout this postseason, but he hasn’t had many big scoring nights. However, after he had 18 points in the Game 6 clincher over the Knicks, he added 17 more to kick off the Finals, with 15 of those points coming from beyond the arc. If Toppin is able to continue to make an impact off the bench like he did in this game, there should be more wins coming for the Pacers.
Aaron Nesmith recorded a double-double on Thursday with 10 points (3-of-9 FGs), 12 rebounds, one assist, one block, three three-pointers and five turnovers in Game 1 against the Thunder.
Indiana dominated on the glass in this game, but it wasn’t just because of the bigs. Nesmith was the leading rebounder in this game and was one of three Pacers to grab at least 10 rebounds. However, they lost the turnover battle 24-6, and Nesmith contributed five of those. The only player with more was Myles Turner, who coughed it up six times. Indiana won this game and still has things to clean up, which is an encouraging sign for them moving forward in this series.