Top Tier
Robbie Ray (TOR) – It’s hard to find a bounce back season better than what Ray has given us this year, and let’s hope that he’s still not done. Walks were always a problem for Ray, but at just 2.84 per nine innings this season, they are a mere footnote and that is especially the case when we look at his 11.83 strikeouts. Ray faced the same Tampa Bay team he takes on tonight in his last start and all he did was fan 13 batters in seven innings while scattering just four hits and not walking a batter, The left-hander picked up his 12th victory of the season while striking out double-digit batters for the fifth time in six starts. The strikeouts give Ray a great floor and he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down pitching deep into games, well at least for these days, getting six or seven innings per start at a minimum.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) – Milwaukee took things slow with Peralta in his first two starts after returning from a shoulder injury but all systems were a go against Detroit in his last start. Peralta needed just 71 innings to make it through six shutout innings as he allowed just two hits while striking nine. That fits right in line with what we have seen from him overall this year with a 2.57 ERA and just a 0.95 WHIP. A 33.3% groundball percentage isn’t exactly ideal but it works when you are striking out over 12 batters per nine innings like Peralta is and his 2.65 xERA also agrees along with his 3.05 FIP and 3.67 xFIP; albeit to a lessor degree. Either way, it’s hard for Peralta not to stand out at the top of tonight’s options.
Mid-Tier
Nestor Cortes (NYY) – Who would have thought it? Entering the season, Cortes wasn’t someone even remotely close to my radar, but instead here we are. In fairness to the left-hander, he certainly has earned it though. Cortes has eclipsed the 20 DK point mark in four of his last six starts with his best effort coming in his last outing against Baltimore. Cortes allowed just one run in 6.1 innings as he struck out 11 batters to bring his ERA down to 2.60 along with a WHIP of just 1.05. It’s hard to argue with those results, but it’s still shocking to see how Cortes gets them. Other than striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings and keeping the walks down (2.60 per nine innings), there are some smoke and mirrors in play as Cortes has benefited from a .255 BABIP while generating a groundball rate of just 28.9%. While Cortes does have a 3.71 FIP, there is still a lot to like from tonight and especially considering the match-up against Texas.
John Means (BAL) – Means is facing a Philadelphia team still fighting for a playoff berth, but they aren’t a lineup that should truly be feared. The left-hander has been more than a dependable option again this season but he generally doesn’t stray much from the 17 DK points he averages per start. At this price point though, I’m all for minimizing the risk and with a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, Means does just that. He does strikeout 8.05 batters per nine innings, so we pick up value there as well, with his floor being a quality start (4.49 xFIP) and again that works at this price point as well.
Value Tier
Shane Baz (TB) - While it is unclear entering the day on Monday what type of workload we can expect from Baz, I would expect the right-hander to be treated as a legitimate starting pitcher. I mean he certainly has earned it after having his debut pushed back from Friday with back spasms. Baz couldn’t have pitched much better in Triple-A prior to her promotion with 64 strikeouts in 46 innings while recording a microscopic 1.76 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The match-up is tough against Toronto, and we want to avoid putting him in the same lineup with Ray, but no one else offers this type of upside at the price.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) – Suarez entered the starting rotation seemingly out of nowhere, but it has worked out quite well for both him and Philadelphia. In his last five starts, Suarez has put up between 19.8 and 22.9 DK points, and that is a range of outcomes we certainly would accept tonight. Through 84 innings this season, Suarez is striking out just over a batter per inning and perhaps the most impressive thing is that he is allowing just 0.43 home runs per nine innings. Suarez has benefited from a .244 BABIP, and at worst case, his 3.52 xFIP is still quite reasonable heading into a favorable match-up against Baltimore.