NBA DFS Playbook: October 23

It just feels wrong to ever leave Doncic out from a PB based on his tremendous upside, but this doesn't feel like a direction I'm looking to go in tonight. Doncic had a poor shooting night in his season debut (6 of 17 from the field) but he still finished with 18 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists so all wasn't lost but it wasn't best return on investment. A bounce back effort could prove me wrong tonight, but I feel comfortable dropping down in salary. 

Lillard gets the Suns in the second half of a back-to-back and Portland has the highest implied point total of the night. The volume is going to be there, he took 24 shots on Wednesday, and I'd expect him to convert more than the eight that he did against the Kings as 20 points was a let down although he did add 11 assists and six rebound. 

After averaging 30.2 points per game in the playoffs, Morant continued that scoring explosion by putting up 37 points on Wednesday. DK was a little more aggressive in making sure his salary followed suit, but he still represents a substantial savings over Doncic and that is even more glaring on FD. Morant also added six rebounds and six assists but perhaps more important was his efficiency as he shot 17 of 29 from the field. You would like to see him get to the line more, but how picky do we want to get. 

Brogdon is taking full advantage of having the ball in his hand to start the season as he is averaging 9.5 assists per game to start the season and he has scored 28 points in each game. It's clear the offense is running through Brogdon for now and he also appears to be up to the task. 

It was a revenge game for Ball on Friday, but he didn't do anything all that out of the ordinary based on his skill set. Ball put up a triple-double last night but with 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists, that is a repeatable performance and gives us a good peak at a realistic ceiling. Ball gets another crack at Detroit tonight after scoring 12 points against them in his debut with six rebounds and four assists so the opposite ends of his expectations were on display to start the season. 

White has scored 16 points in each game so far this season and last night he showed his upside as a playmaker with eight assists to go along with two blocks and two steals. Another 40 FD night is very possible and that means we could be in store for at least a 6x return after he gave us a 5x return in his debut. At this price White offers some upside along with some cost certainty as a second guard. 

I'm taking a shot here that the Suns will be a little extra cautious with Chris Paul's workload after Phoenix played last night. Through the first two games of the season, Payne is averaging seven points in 16 minutes of action along with 3.5 assists. 

Jackson is expected to be in the starting lineup once again, so let's chase that upside. On Wednesday it only led us to seven points in 28 minutes but the takeaway for me is that he played 28 minutes and he has shown some offensive upside in the past. 

I was targeting George on Thursday and I'm perfectly comfortable going back to him tonight. With Kawhi Leonard out, George is going to the focal point of the Clippers' offense and he proved to be up to the task with 29 points, 11 rebounds and six assists to begin the season. Another plus here was the efficient shooting performance as he went 12 of 23 from the field. 

The only direction I expect LaVine's price to go is up. With 34 and 32 points to start the season, we don't have to worry about who the offense will be built on, and with Ball in place, LaVine doesn't have to carry the burden of being the facilitator either. The only thing that kept from the 50 fantasy point mark on Friday was his six turnovers because aside from that, his performance was pretty similar to what we saw on Wednesday.

At first glance, how can we not be targeting McCollum over at DK with that price? McCollum took 24 shots in his season debut and converting on 14 of them as he put up 34 points to go along with six rebounds and five assists while picking up the slack for Lillard who had a poor shooting night. Even if Lillard does find his shot against a Phoenix team playing for the second straight night, there should be plenty of offense available for McCollum. 

Alexander-Walker has come close to a 6x return in each game so far this season, and the fact that he has five steals and three blocks through two games this season also helps. The guard is also averaging 19 points and five rebounds and his current price allows for some upside. 

There is no shame in my game about going back to the well. Herro began his season by scoring 27 points in 24 minutes of action while also adding six rebounds and five assists. Based on what we have seen from Herro in the past, maybe not fully last season though, that performance shouldn't have been surprising. At worst he will be the first man off the bench for Miami, but we are also keeping an eye on Kyle Lowry's status so Herro could be up for even more playing time tonight. 

Someone has to step up on the Clippers aside from George, and Bledsoe is throwing his name into the ring. He was on the court for 29 minutes to begin the season, and we likely can expect a similar workload for the foreseeable future. Bledsoe took advantage of his opportunity as he scored 22 points while picking up three steals for a 40.6 FD point performance. The upside might not really be there, but he is a solid mid-range option because someone has to shoot the ball. 

What is happening on DK here? Bane started on Wednesday and in 30 minutes of action he shot 50% from the field on the way to 22 points, three rebounds, three assists, and two steals. That is likely the upper end of his potential, but he is going to remain in the starting lineup, and at this price, we have a little wiggle room. 

Take what I said above about Bane and apply it to Melton. Based on the pricing, Bane gets the DK advantage but with 20 points, four rebounds, and three assists on eight of 14 shooting, it's not like Melton is a slouch. 

It didn't take long for Trent to find his way into the starting lineup and he came through with 20 points on Friday. Through the first two games on the season, Trent is also averaging 3.5 steals and he should be able to pick up where he left off last season. 

Mann is another option to target on the Clippers as got 39 minutes of playing time to begin the season. The fact that he came off the bench clearly didn't diminish his value as Mann put up 11 points while also adding eight rebounds. We also saw his offensive upside in the playoffs so perhaps there is a little more potential?

With Zion Willliamson sidelined and Lonzo Ball in Chicago, the offense is really running through Ingram to begin the season. While he does have 30-plus scoring upside, it's hard to argue with Ingram's consistency to begin the season as he as scored 25 and 26 points respectively while also averaging 7.5 rebounds and seven assists. 

We know that Edwards has offensive upside, and it was on full display to begin the season as he scored 29 points on 10 of 21 shooting. I need to see more before fully buying in on his consistency and with six rebounds and three assists, a great deal of his value does appear to be tied to his scoring. 

It's clear that Bridges' price on DK didn't adjust after he scored 21 points and grabbed five rebounds last night against the Lakers. Bridges scored 16 points in his first game of the season after Phoenix just committed $90 million to him as he looks to take the next step this season. 

Not only is there a glaring price difference with the rookie across the two sites, but Duarte is eligible at SG only on DK. After scoring 27 points in his debut, Duarte bounced back to earth with 15 points last night but it also came with five assists, and four rebounds. If that is what we are going to call regression, sign me up.

Let's stay with the rookies as Barnes isn't showing any issues in adjusting to the NBA. Yes, it is just two games so I'm not in the business of making glaring declarations, but it's hard to ignore the results. We thought things were good with 12 points and nine rebounds to begin the season, but Barnes stepped things up last night scoring 25 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. 

If you really need to save some cash, Okogie starts for Minnesota and did a solid job filling the box score in 21 minutes of action in his season debut. The forward only scored six points, but five rebounds, two blocks, and two steals, the production did add up. 

Antetokounmpo is someone to ignore at your own peril. Granted it didn't work on Thursday as the forward only scored 15 points to go along with 10 rebounds, but it only came in 22 minutes as Milwaukee was blown out. I wouldn't say that Antetokounmpo is a must start, but with some of the other value on the board (especially at DK) I do see a path towards getting him in your lineup. 

Not only does Sabonis flash upside, but he also brings a floor of about 50 fantasy points. Through two games, Sabonis has picked up right where he left off with 30.5 points, 12 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. The Pacers have an implied point total of 111 tonight, and Sabonis figures to be a large part of that. 

After the praise I just heaped on Sabonis, I'm not sure how he fits into my lineup tonight, and it has nothing to do with him. It has everything to do with Turner whose pricing has not caught up with his 40 point, 10 rebound performance last night. To be clear, I don't expect him to score 40 points again tonight, but he will do better than the nine points he scored in 25 minutes in his first game of the season. Turner is also averaging 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game, so a solid floor is in place. 

Johnson is coming off a 37 minute performance last night in which he scored 27 points. With four rebounds and 1.5 assists per game, the bulk of Johnson's value does come from his scoring, but the playing time is there and the price could work (more so on DK). 

Achiuwa's price has risen some since the beginning of the season but the starter is still affordable; especially on DK. Through the first two games of the season, he is averaging 22 minutes of playing time and is coming off a strong double-double last night. In 24 minutes, Achiuwa certainly was efficient as he scored 15 points and grabbed 15 rebounds. 

Nwora continues to be the top backup for Milwaukee in the front court and he has played 26 minutes in each game so far this season. With 13 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, Nwora has stayed relatively consistent and provides a solid floor. 

Towns doesn't come cheap tonight but he is clearly the best option at the center position. Not only did he put up 30 points by making 11 of his 15 shots from the field, but Towns also made three from beyond the arc while adding 10 rebounds. It should also be added that this came in just 29 minutes as Minnesota dispatched the Rockets with ease. 

There isn't much that separates Nurkic from the other options below Towns at the center position. Well other than price that is, and that reflects favorably on the Portland center who now benefits from Enes Kanter being in Boston. To begin the season, Nurkic scored 20 points while also grabbing 14 rebounds. That makes him a solid cash game option if you don't pay up for Towns or really hunt for value. 

I was all set to list Poeltl as a Cash game option only, and then there was his DK price. Through the first two games of the season, he is consistently averaging a double-double with 13.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. 

We don't have to worry about playing time with Adams who grabbed 14 rebounds in his first game with Memphis over 31 minutes. Adams also added eight points, but if he continues to rebound at that level, a 40 fantasy point night isn't completely out of the equation.