NBA DFS Playbook: October 28

Whenever Doncic is on the slate, it’s pretty close to a requirement that he is included here. I mean the point guard took 25 shots on Tuesday, granted he only made 10 of them, but he still finished with 25 points to go along with 14 rebounds and seven assists. We don’t have to worry about usage here and it’s just a matter of time until he gets his first triple-double of the season. 

The volume is there for Curry offensively, but the accuracy hasn’t always followed suit. It’s also surprising to see Curry with more rebounds (8.3) per game than assists (6.3) and if you take away his 45-point outburst, he is only at 24 points per game in his other three games. With that being said, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Curry has eclipsed 50 fantasy point mark in each of those games, but he’s not a must roster based on the cost and other options. 

It’s not surprising to see Morant’s name atop our list of options in tonight as he kicked of the season by averaging 30.5 points along with 3.7 rebounds. His ball handling duties haven’t taken away from his role as a facilitator evidenced by his 8.5 assists per game. We are getting Memphis on the second half of a back-to-back, but the Grizzlies aren’t going to get much of anything done without their star point guard. Morant is coming off a down night offensively, 17 points, but he did finish with nine rebounds and 10 assists to round out the stat line. 

He is coming off a 31 point, seven assist outing last night but I’m having a hard time to get too juiced for Young in a GPP lineup. Now 26.5 points and 9.3 assists per game are nothing to be dismissive about, but the names above do offer more in the way of upside. 

Alright, after the triple-double on Tuesday after I didn’t include him in the PB, I feel obligated to take look at Murray. It goes without saying that the 21 points, 15 assists, and 12 rebounds that Murray put up are an outlier, but the skill set is there nonetheless. We do have to watch though as his price has been catching up to his performance, or at least the upper levels of his production ceiling. And with two out of his four games resulting in mid-30’s fantasy point production, there is still some risk for cash games. 

Ball is shaping up to be a nice mid-level option this season who has triple-double potential even if we have only seen it in a revenge game against New Orleans so far this season. With Zach LaVine banged up, it will be interesting to see if Ball takes on more of an offensive roll with the Bulls as he has scored between 12 and 17 points in his four games so far this season. 

Poole has settled into a solid niche as a solid option in this price zone. He did disappoint on Tuesday as he managed just 10 points but it wasn’t from lack of trying as he missed all seven of his three-point attempts; although he did go 5 of 7 from inside the arc. From a fantasy point perspective, Poole saved the day with seven assists and he seems to be playing around 30 minutes a night. 

I wish there was a way to combine Curry and Tyrese Maxey into one entry and just flip a coin. I know it’s not the groundbreaking fantasy analysis you come here for, but they are now the same price on FD and have, on average, done the same thing through the first four games of the season. Neither was great on Tuesday, but if I’m picking one tonight, it will be Curry who should bounce back from his four-point outing against the Knicks. 

Clarkson doesn’t do much other than score off the bench, but based on the 19 points he put up on Tuesday, in just 23 minutes too, he can get you around a 5x return. I do like the matchup against Houston tonight as well and perhaps we see the backups get a little more run. 

Caldwell-Pope is cheap and played 31 minutes in his last game and has been between 24 and 31 all season. At his price, and based on his recent performance, it won’t take much to get KCP to 5x value and I can live with that as he has scored 11 points in each of his last two games. 

We know that Beal is going to be a volume shooter so that isn’t a concern, but the shots have yet to really fall through the first three games of the season. With the emphasis even more so than usual on building balanced lineups with the right one or two studs, there is too much variability for me to count on Beal in your main lineup even if he did grab 10 rebounds in his last game. We know that he is going to try and keep up Trae Young, but I’m not sure if his shooting accuracy is up to the task. 

We are still looking for that standout performance from Mitchell, and perhaps it comes in a favorable matchup against Houston? There is blowout concern here though and Mitchell is only averaging 3.3 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game, so it’s all about the offense to this point for him (21.7 points per game). 

If Zach LaVine doesn’t play tonight then I’m really all about DeRozan but there is still value regardless as I would expect LaVine to be limited regardless while dealing with a thumb injury. And even in current state, DeRozan has scored between 35 and 41 FD points in each game so far this season. There is something to be said for that consistency with some upside sprinkled in at a fair price. 

The Washington guard has been hit and miss offensively this season, but it’s clear he doesn’t have a problem scoring as evidenced by the 19.8 points per game he is averaging. However, I would like to see Dinwiddie pick up some more consistency in the assist department before fully investing; although that would also mean his price would increase so that variability is already built in here as he tries to keep up Trae Young tonight on the second half of a back-to-back for Atlanta. 

Bane has seen his price rise from the true value it was in the beginning of the season as he starts for Memphis, but even at this level I’m still comfortable rolling him out. In the front end of a back-to-back last night Bane only played 23 minutes, but he still put up 19 points. We do have to watch as he is getting close to drifting away from 5x value but I would expect him to get back to the 30 minutes he has been playing so far this season in which he has been chipping in about a fantasy point per minute. 

Melton and Bane have been somewhat linked to start the season and Melton should rebound after being held scoreless last night. He did save his value somewhat by grabbing seven rebounds on his way to 18 FD points so that gives us a decent floor. I’m fine rolling with Melton here if he is the cheaper option. 

Walker is coming off a season high 21 point, six assist effort on Tuesday and his price doesn’t really reflect that performance. After playing closer to 25 minutes in each of the first three games, Walker was on the court for 31 minutes so that also helped, but the performance supported it and his 15.3 points per game look even better if you remove his six-point dud. 

Korkmaz has the ability to put up 22 points like he did in the opener, but his sweet spot seems to be around nine points per game as evidenced by his last three games. All he needs to do is pick up a few rebounds and assists, like he did on Tuesday, and Korkmaz slides into your lineup as a cheap option with a 4x or 5x return at minimum. There is also the potential for more tonight in a favorable matchup against Detroit. 

For players with their primary position listed as SF, tonight is not going to be an expensive night. In his last two games, Bey is averaging 20.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game and as long as the turnovers aren’t crazy, we could be looking at a 6x return as it’s clear Detroit has to rely on him as a large part of whatever their offense actually is. With Jerami Grant trending towards being out of the lineup again, I give Bey another small boost.

Overall, Kuzma is averaging a double-double to begin the season with 13.8 points and 11.8 rebounds per game, but that is largely boosted by a 26-point performance against the Pacers in an overtime game. Even still, Kuzma has a nice floor thanks to his efforts on the boards even if we can’t count on him to score much more than 10 points while Beal is in the lineup. 

Fournier is on the court to score and the 19 points per game he is averaging through the first four games of the season reflect that. We’ll get a few rebounds and assists mixed in, but the Knicks will need Fournier’s shot to fall in what should be a tight game against Chicago. 

Barrett needed two overtimes to put up 19 points in the season opener, and since then he has been looking for offensive success. In his last two games, he put up 12 and 10 points respectively, but Barrett is still going to get about 30 minutes of playing time a night. As his price continues to drop, his path to a 5x return gets easier, and in a rough night at the SF position, I’m comfortable rolling Barrett out there in a GPP lineup. 

The ultimate “floor” player who will get between 30 and 35 minutes of playing time per night, Finney-Smith generally fits into most lineups. Even when he scored just six points on Tuesday, he finished with 23 FD points and he has been in that range (23-26) in each game so far this season. 

The forward made his season debut on Tuesday and with nine points and seven rebounds in just 19 minutes he certainly made his presence felt. Sign me up for a repeat at this price, and I like it even better as workload increases. 

Yes, there was the game in which Gordon scored only two points in 26 minutes, but in his other three games this season the forward is averaging just under 20 points per game so even if he doesn’t produce much else, sign me up for that. 

I’m not going to put Randle on the cover tonight, but that doesn’t mean I’m out on him tonight either; I just want to avoid the jinx. Offensively, it was an off night for Randle on Tuesday with just 16 points, but he should bounce back tonight, and his value was saved (to a degree) with 11 rebounds and seven assists. 

With 20 points, 9.3 points, and five assists per game, it’s another solid season for Harris but he is more of a cash game option for me in what is a surprisingly tough matchup against Detroit tonight as it appears that he is limited by his season averages. 

Atlanta doesn’t appear to be willing, or able, to let Collins loose for more than about 25 minutes per game so far this season but he is coming off his first double-double of the season last night against New Orleans. Collins was quite efficient scoring 16 points to go along with 12 rebounds, and he has been a dependable option all season. 

Green is getting closer to his first triple-double of the season with eight points, nine rebounds, and eight rebounds on Tuesday, but it would be nice if scored just a little more and put a lid on the turnovers. At the same time though, it is nice to write 30 fantasy points into your lineup in ink and have there be the possibility for some upside. 

After a slow start to the season, Stewart’s full capability was on display Tuesday as he takes advantage of his starting role. I’m not sure we can expect five assists and three blocked shots every night, and at his price it isn’t entirely necessary, but his 13 points and seven rebounds are easily repeatable. 

Toppin is both cheap and explosive off the bench. Despite just 11 minutes of action on Tuesday, Toppin was quite busy with nine points, four rebounds, and two assists to go along with a blocked shot and two steals. We can’t expect that level of efficiency on a nightly basis, but the forward has carved out a role with the Knicks, and in three of his four games he is averaging around 25 fantasy points. 

We need to keep an eye on Embiid and his status tonight as he continues to deal with a knee injury. It was clearly evident on Tuesday as he was limited to just 14 points and six rebounds in 30 minutes. However, if Embiid does take the court, the ownership will likely be low to match the risk, but we aren't lacking for upside either. 

Vucevic has flashed upside with 19 rebounds once this season, but is generally more of a solid contributor at the position. For the price we want a double-double at a minimum and despite the 14.3 points and 11.5 rebounds per game he is averaging, we have only gotten two of those so far. 

Gobert has been quite the reliable option so far this season with lows of 16 points and 16 rebounds, but we aren't going to see many 50 fantasy points outings from either. There is something to be said about writing 45 fantasy points down with ink. 

The price has gone up on Poeltl but he's still my favorite target at the position tonight and it's not enough to scare me away. He is now averaging a double-double (16 points and 10.8 rebounds per game) on the heels of an attention grabbing 27 point, 14 rebound performance. 

This is more of a DK play based on the price, but it's unclear what version of Robinson we will get. On the season he is averaging 8.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game but he has two double-doubles and in those games he also has five blocks. 

Olynyk is a solid option based on his price regardless, but if Jerami Grant is sidelined, his status rockets up. That was on full display Tuesday as Olynyk put up 21 points to go along with six rebounds and four assists. 

With Daniel Gafford out, we have to look at Harrell tonight. After Gafford exited last night, we got a good look at what Harrell is capable of as he scored 25 points while grabbing 11 rebounds. On the season, he is averaging 17.8 points and 8.5 rebounds a game, so it's not like this is coming out of nowhere.