NBA DFS Playbook: November 6

A common refrain this season has been lamenting the underwhelming performance of that night’s expensive studs. Doncic is scoring his points this season, 23.9 per game, but efficiency has not been his friend and we are not getting double figures in assists or rebounds from Doncic so his value continues to be limited. 

I’m not going to project all of the Lakers’ struggles this season on Westbrook, but it is clear he’s not the same player previously began our lineup builds with. Westbrook does have back-to-back 27-point efforts, and with LeBron James slated to miss the game offense is needed, but turnovers continue to be an issue (I know I say this every night but they do result in negative points) and he is only averaging 8.4 rebounds and 8.1 assists per game. 

After consecutive games of 20 and 26 points, it seemed like Lillard was potentially turning the corner after his early season shooting struggles. He then put up just four points last night, but with 11 assists it wasn't a completely lost cause for Lillard. It was the third game out of four in which he put up double digit assists so I'm hoping that last night scares some suitors away. 

This is the lowest we’ve seen Young’s price in a long time, but it isn’t without cause. After the change in officiating, Young is struggling to find offense and he doesn’t’ do enough in other areas to truly make up for it. We have to watch though, because the more Young’s price drips, the more appealing he could become once again. 

Ball continues to be a solid cash game option providing us with 5x return but he doesn’t do much beyond that to provide any upside. With that being said, there is nothing wrong with 12.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game when you know will receive them pretty consistently. 

No Jaylen Brown means Schroder will see an uptick in usage as perhaps he will get a chance to truly show what he is capable of offensively. Overall, it has been a solid start to his career in Boston averaging 13.3 points and six assists per game, but he does have games of 22 and 23 points this season. 

In the two games prior to Thursday, Lowry was starting to get on track in his new home, but an ankle injury forced him out of the game against Boston. Lowry’s price has been slow to adjust to a two-game stretch in which he put up 38 and 40.5 points respectively, but he does have a track record of success and he’s someone to target once again if the ankle allows him to take the court without issue. Things are clearly a lot more favorable at FD with Lowry tonight. 

I’ve been trying to target Maxey all season with Ben Simmons away from the team, but Maxey hasn’t been fully cooperative. On Thursday we stepped things up even more as injuries left Philadelphia with just three players in reserve so Maxey put up 20 points and five assists in 44 minutes of action. It remains to be seen who will be returning for the 76ers, but at this price, Maxey is someone to keep an eye on. Matisse Thybulle will also be out for tonight’s game, so Philadelphia will have to find offense somewhere. 

While he did follow up a 30-point outing by scoring just 13, Conley isn’t known for his offense at all times, but he did dish out 11 assists. We have to keep an eye on Donovan Mitchell’s status as that could benefit Conley, but he seems to be finding his groove. 

I’m all for riding the hot hand here as Brunson has stepped up in a big way over the last two games offensively. It also helps that he has played 30 and 36 minutes, respectively, but it’s hard to argue with 25 and 31 points in those two games while averaging 8.5 rebounds and three assists. 

If Philadelphia is shorthanded, then Milton should see increased playing time for the second straight night after he went for 16 points, eight rebounds, and five assists in 33 minutes against Detroit on Thursday. 

DeRozan has never had an issue scoring in his career, but he has taken things up a notch in his last three games with a 32-point outing followed by two straight games with 37 points each. He has been consistently good all season and I wouldn’t to see the offense slow down as he is also grabbing 6.1 rebounds and handing out 3.6 assists per game. 

We know that Booker can score in bunches, but it’s not something he has done consistently done all season. It was a pleasant surprise to see Booker average 8.5 rebounds in his last two games, but on average, he hasn’t proven to be worth the price on a nightly basis. 

After missing Thursday’s game with an ankle injury, Mitchell’s status is something we will have to keep an eye on Saturday. Mitchell is coming off a 36-point performance in his last game, and while he is averaging 24.9 points per game, his 4.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists are limiting his upside. 

The price has been solid on McCollum all season, and he is coming off a 27-point, six assist, five rebound performance that was limited by his four turnovers. Compared to other options in this tier, McCollum doesn't bring as much upside, but there is a nice reliability factor. 

Even with DeRozan in town, LaVine continues to score at a high level, 25.8 points per game, and it’s hard to argue with his price tonight in a good match-up against Philadelphia. Things are a little different than last year though with the offense not strictly running through LaVine, but his value still hovers around 5x. 

Here we go again. You had to know that Herro was going to make an appearance here as he continues to be a high-volume, and quite productive, option off the bench for Miami. Kyle Lowry’s health could come into play here as well, and after Herro managed just six points and seven rebounds on Thursday, it’s possible his ownership reflects that. 

No Jaylen Brown means that Smart’s role will increase. The offense hasn’t been there for Smart this season, 8.8 points per game, but he plays about 30 minutes a game and will fill the stat sheet but it’s hard to see much upside here. 

If Donovan Mitchell is sidelined tonight, then Ingles certainly warrants a close look as he scored 19 points in 27 minutes on Thursday. He has had a few other solid performances this season, but things are a lot easier for Ingles with Mitchell out. 

Butler is coming off a sub-par effort on Thursday against Boston as it broke a five-game stretch in which he eclipsed the 50 FD point mark each time. He certainly is doing it on the offensive end averaging 24.4 points per game, but Butler is also doing a good job of filling the stat sheet across all categories. 

Under normal circumstances I would be all over this tonight Jaylon Brown sidelined but after seeing Tatum managed just a combined 24 points in his last two games, I’m not as certain. While he’s still looking to find his groove offensively, Tatum does have some strong offensive games under his belt this season, and I’m willing to roll the dice here tonight. 

The price keeps on rising for Anthony but he also continues to score and is also benefiting from LeBron James being sidelined. When we last saw Anthony on Thursday, he was scoring 21 points in 31 minutes while also grabbing six rebounds, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him duplicate it tonight. 

There is a clear price difference between DK and FD here, but on either site you are getting Powell at a fair price. His cost has been slow to adjust to the recent scoring outburst and Powell is coming off a 25-point performance for his third straight 20-plus game. 

Regardless of Mitchell’s status, Bogdanovic generally plays about 30 minutes a night, so one less player in the pecking order is a good thing here, but for the most part, he has been consistent this season. On most nights we are looking at a 5x return, with one or two three-pointers being the difference in a really good performance. 

He isn’t going to score 26 points every night, but at this price, it’s certainly nice to see. Hunter has been getting close to 30 minutes of run per game these days, but his value is still mostly dependent upon what he does on the offensive end. The good thing though, is that he gets plenty of opportunity to do so. 

If it wasn’t for Davis’ thumb injury hanging over our heads then this would be a surefire top option tonight. The good news is that it didn’t force him out of Thursday’s game and the Lakers will have to lean on Davis once again with LeBron James sidelined. With that being said, it doesn’t get much better than his 29-point, 18 rebound, five assist performance and the expected usage should support it again tonight if he takes the court. 

After being almost a forgotten entity last season, Horford has been resurgent this year in Boston. Prior to Thursday’s game against Miami, Horford was half a point away from six straight 40-plus Fan Duel point performances. Horford is averaging 13.4 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, and at this point, there’s no reason to expect him to slow down. 

The Dallas forward did practice on Friday after missing five straight games with a back injury which at least puts him closer to returning tonight. At his price, and given his performance this year (12.7 points and six rebounds per game), I’m not in a hurry to roster him tonight, but if you feel compelled this is GPP, multi-entry only. 

While he continues to be a double-double machine, or at least close to it with 14.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, Collins doesn’t offer enough in the way of GPP upside but he does make a fine cash target. 

There is no reason not to expect something similar from Niang than what we have seen over his last three games. Within that stretch, Niang has played 31 minutes each time out averaging 18 points with five rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. The good news is that his price hasn’t truly caught up to that. Tonight should be another busy game on offense for Niang with Matisse Thybulle also unavailable along with Tobias Harris. 

The price is right here and Covington generally plays around 25 to 30 minutes on a nightly basis. He doesn’t do much scoring, but he picks up some value on the defensive end while also hitting the boards. There is risk here as it’s generally a 50/50 probability for Covington to hit 5x, but the price is right. Based on how eligibility has been working this year, it hasn’t been as much of a crunch to fill out a roster, but Covington is here as a cheap GPP option. Now if he repeats his five three-pointer performance from last night, we will really be in business. 

With Tobias Harris sidelined, the usage should be there for Embiid but he has been struggling offensively. If he can bring his field goal percentage back over 50% and improve his three-point shooting, then perhaps we are looking at a 30-point performance from the center who is averaging 20.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game so far this season. 

A down night for Gobert is the 13 points and 15 rebounds he posted on Thursday, and we will likely have to adjust our expectations down to that (around 40 fantasy points) as it will be an interesting match-up to watch him go against Adebayo. 

It would be nice if we got more than about 25 or so minutes a night out of Nurkic. Last night he only played 23 minutes but Nurkic was quite efficient with 10 points and nine rebounds. Even with the moderate workload, there is still double-double upside that would give us between 35 and 45 fantasy points. 

Capela is starting to round into his double-double form with four straight as he is averaging 13.3 points and 12.5 rebounds in that stretch. He still has a little bit to go before we fully get back to where Capela was last year but his price also takes that into account. 

Coming off the bench, McGee plays about 20 minutes per game and at 10.1 points and 6.3 rebounds the production is there as well. The best part is at McGee’s price, a 5x return is a pretty easy and reasonable lift.