NBA DFS Playbook: November 27

After missing three games, Doncic returned to action on Tuesday and didn’t miss a beat. He was helped by overtime, but Doncic just missed a triple-double with 26 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. I would pause before saying that he is an automatic for tonight’s slate as the price isn’t cheap, but Doncic is certainly looking that way over his last four games.

The offensive upside is there, but we don’t know if we are going to get 10 points or 28 on a nightly basis. Odds are it will be closer to the latter, but it’s an expensive cash game risk. Ball does average 7.8 assists and 7.7 rebounds per game so we can’t take him lightly, and it’s a favorable matchup against Houston tonight. 

Young was dealing with an ankle injury heading into last night’s game against Memphis, but he was listed as probable and didn’t appear to have any limitations. In a rematch of the first round of last year’s playoffs, I would expect Young to be available again tonight without any limitations, but it is something to at least keep an eye on. In 27 minutes, last night, Young scored 31 points for the next straight night, and third straight over 30, while also handing out 10 assists. I would expect him to be motivated tonight and the Knicks struggle against opposing point guards. 

After going scoreless three games ago. Ball is averaging 16 points in his last two games while continuing to be around five rebounds and assists per night. Scoring might not always be the focus here, but Ball is capable and for the most part there is enough of a floor here thanks to his other production. 

Rubio may not be as exciting as some of the other options, but he sure is dependable and we are seeing more offense from him than we were previous accustomed to. With Collin Sexton out, Rubio is getting the opportunity to show what he can do and he is living up to the task averaging 15.1 points per game while also chipping in 6.2 assists per game along with a few rebounds. There are others with more upside, but we can’t argue with Rubio’s floor. 

Stop me if you have heard this before, but Suggs is a top rookie for whom inconsistency is part of his game. That’s the only to explain the five-point outing thrown right in the middle of five games with between 13 and 21 points. Suggs is still feeling his way through the NBA, after all he is a rookie, but this is a good start. 

There isn’t anything all that exciting here, but Caruso plays good number of minutes on a nightly basis and he fills the stat sheet. Occasionally the offense will be working for Caruso, but even if not, he was still able to get to 26.5 FD points last night on just four actually points so that has to make you feel good about the floor. 

When we last saw Payne on the second end of a back-to-back, the offense took a step forward with 20 points, but the playing time didn’t follow suit. Payne is right around a 5x return on FD on a normal day, so if he gets any kind of boost from the Suns exercising caution with Chris Paul. 

I know I have three Chicago point guards listed on here, and soon to be five perimeter players, but White regained his scoring touch with 20 points last night. We do get a little discount tonight as that isn’t factored into White’s price, so I’ll take a GPP shot here knowing that he won’t be more than about 20 or so minutes of playing time. 

When you are paying full freight for Harden, expectations are always going to be sky high. Tonight, Harden gets a Phoenix team that played last night as we go chasing his 69 FD points from a week ago. Of all the players on tonight’s slate, Harden is one of the better equipped to do so as the production is starting to turn a corner. 

When I started my research last night, the original intention was to exclude Beal. But with Spencer Dinwiddie expected to be sidelined, things change and here we are. Scoring is generally not an issue for Beal, but if he’s on the lower side of the 20’s, I feel less confident in him as he is more of a one-dimensional player. Tonight though, we can expect the usage to increase and now we have a bona fide GPP option with upside. 

It’s now three straight subpar games for DeRozan, but he did score 23 points in 28 minutes last night so I’m not completely off on him here. At the same time though, my initial preference is to either spend up or down at the position tonight. 

All I want to do is lump the Bulls’ teammates together, so if I can save money on LaVine that’s going to be my preference. After a strong sequence of games as of late, LaVine is up to 25.8 points per game and we know that the volume will be there. That being said, this is simply a FD play as that price on DK is rough. 

Talk about a price that is taunting me. At the same time though, Mitchell hasn’t broken the 40 FD point mark in his last six games and in three of those games, he has been between 25 and 28 fantasy points. I’m still going to follow the talent here but the fact that we aren’t going to see double-digits in anything other than offense means his price might not be as crazy as I initially thought. 

After watching Booker torch the Knicks for 32 points on Friday, this is a matchup I’m going to jump on. At the risk of chasing fantasy points, Booker did score 35 on Wednesday so it’s not like this offense is coming out of nowhere. The matchup will get harder against Brooklyn tonight, but at this price I’m comfortable hunting for it. 

Herro continues to play 30-plus minutes off the bench for Miami, and he also continues to score in bunches in that role. He is coming off a down performance against Minnesota in which he scored just 16 points and turned the ball over five times, but Herro has also carved out a solid role on the boards as of late. 

There are tons of backcourt options tonight, and we shouldn’t overlook Garland who has been busy of late from a volume perspective. His 19-point performance on Wednesday broke a streak of three games with either 24 or 25 points and for the most part he does limit the turnovers while averaging around seven assists per game. 

It’s hard not to like the matchup for Rozier and the Hornets tonight against Houston. Rozier shouldn’t find much in the way of resistance and we know that he doesn’t have trouble putting the ball in the hoop. While it doesn’t always happen, it’s hard to find a better situation and the price is right as well. 

At this price, all you want is steady minutes (check), offensive upside (check), and a basis for expecting a repeat (check). Mills has played at least 31 minutes in his last six games and he hasn’t scored less than 17 in his last four. Bruce Brown is probable to return tonight, but he has only missed two games so Mills’ production isn’t simply a source of his absence. 

If we are going to go after the Rockets we might as well go a little deeper for some value as well. Martin generally at least 25 minutes of playing time a night and he does a good job of filling the box score so we aren’t just relying on his scoring ability; as that does tend to fluctuate. 

If you want to capitalize on the absence of Dinwiddie and Beal is to cost prohibitive, then here we are. I’m not it’s exciting, but KCP already has a legitimate role with Washington, but now his usage will increase. In fact, Caldwell-Pope has scored at least 16 points in three of his last four games topped off by a 20-point performance last night. 

On a back-to-back with no Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker, I would expect the Knicks to perhaps rely more on Quickley tonight. He has scored between 12 and 16 points in each of his last four games, and a few more minutes of playing time could push him over the edge. And Quickley might get all he can handle tonight. 

Despite still being one of the top options tonight, I wouldn’t consider Durant a clear plug and play option as he does have a tough opponent in Phoenix; even if the Suns did play last night. It’s hard to really argue with 28.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game, but Durant hasn’t been a completely lights out, no doubt performer as of late with games of 28 and 31 FD points among his last five. 

Take what I just said about Durant, turn it down a notch, and apply it here. After a three-game stretch in which he averaged around 31 points per game, Butler is at 15.5 in his last two albeit it with 8.5 rebounds and five assists per game. That being said, Butler is still one of the better options and a solid paydown from Durant to save a little bit of cap space. 

There is plenty of opportunity for Ingram, but he needs to find efficiency with his shot and also stop turning the ball over. When those things happen, there is a clear difference in his performance, and while Ingram’s price reflects this, he is still best left for GPP lineups tonight. 

There is going to a be risk of Charlotte pulling away from Houston before we get the full benefit of Hayward’s production and/or his minutes being limited. That was the case last night as he made full use of his 27 minutes of action scoring 18 points and grabbing six rebounds to go along with six assists. The problem is that he also turned the ball over five times so the overall upside did take a little hit. 

The forward is getting close to averaging a double-double on the season (13 points and 9.2 rebounds per game), and our expectation is that he gets a few extra shots tonight. Kuzma is coming off his fourth double-double in his last five games last night (11 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists) and (stop me if you have heard this before) it would be nice if he stopped turning the ball over four times per game. 

Someone has to score and produce for Houston, so why not Porter. After what we saw from him last season, Porter does have it in him. After missing the last three games with injury, Porter returned on Wednesday with a strong game scoring 14 points while handing out nine assists and grabbing six rebounds. 

Things really can go either for the rookie as he can go for 16/7/4 or 0/4/1 on a game-to-game basis. The good news, is that we get a lot more of the good Wagner than the bad, and a rebuilding Orlando team is in the position to give him a chance to show what he can do. 

Bridges hasn’t been lighting things up offensively as of late, but the forward is priced fairly and does a good job of filling up the stat sheet across multiple categories. While we need more upside to take down a GPP, Bridges could fit solidly into a cash game lineup. 

The Knicks need to get their expensive, off-season addition on track and Fournier has struggled to consistently do that. After scoring 26 points against the Lakers earlier this week, he followed that up with just 11 points against the Suns on Friday. It was a rough game all around for New York, so I’m willing to gamble on him bouncing back tonight. With both Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker sidelined, the Knicks will need him. 

I like the security in O’Neale’s 30 or so minutes of playing time, but we aren’t going to see many double-digits here. The good thing though, is that based on the price, the path to 5x isn’t all that unreasonable or unattainable. 

Okoro has reached double figures in scoring three of his last five games, and Cleveland gives him plenty in the way of opportunity. The double-digit scoring coupled with some rebounds, after all based on the playing time he’s getting, Okoro almost has no choice but to pick up some other production, makes him a solid option. 

In a revenge game against his former team, Gallinari has settled into a solid role with Atlanta playing around 20-22 minutes a game. He has been hitting double-digits most nights in scoring as of late and we have a decent chance at a 6x return. 

This is the potential we have been waiting on from Porzingis for some time. It’s still just a short stretch, and I don’t want to get in the business of hyperbole, but it’s been six straight games in which Porzingis has fallen below the 40-fantasy point mark. In that stretch, he hasn’t scored less than 21 points or grabbed less than seven rebounds.

I really want to control myself here. No Derrick Rose and no Kemba Walker means things might look very similar to how they did last year for Randle with the ball in his hands. We can’t read too much into his down performance against the Suns last night as New York never really had a chance, and instead I’m comfortable using his three straight double-doubles before that (including 20 points and nine rebounds on Tuesday against the Lakers) as the barometer. On DK though, this is a fade based on the price. 

If only we could take Collins’ 21 points and eight rebounds from last night over 23 minutes and project them to a full night’s work. Collins has been busy on the offensive end lately and then fact that he keeps on blocking shots only boosts his value. 

Things are rough in Houston, but Wood is still averaging a double-double at 15.5 points and 11 rebounds per game even if it is often a tale of two different players on a game-to-game basis. There is too much volatility for me in cash games, although against Charlotte tonight, this is as good a spot as any for Wood and the price is right. 

In his two games back from injury, Markkanen hasn’t missed a beat, and I would expect his price to only rise at this point. The forward takes games of 22/8 and 14/11 into tonight as has been a dual threat since his return. This is under the caveat of an injured Evan Mobley though, but there is still enough production to go around and you can't argue with the price on DK. 

Carter shook of two uneven games by posting back-to-back double-doubles. Carter missed a third by two points and he is coming off a 26-point, 10 rebounds performance in a revenge game against Chicago last night when he truly showed off at the top level what he is capable of. 

After a lengthy absence, Washington scored 17 points and grabbed six rebounds in 24 minutes last night against Minnesota. He also benefited from Mason Plumlee being sidelined, so while it remains to be seen what tonight’s situation will be, Washington does present with solid value. 

The offense, at least prior to last night, that we have seen from Gobert over his last few games has been a nice touch. I’m willing to write off his nine-point, 10 rebound outing against New Orleans and instead focus on the overall body of work that consists of 15.3 points and 14.8 rebounds per game. I’m not as willing to chase those 21 and 23-point outings though. 

Brooklyn struggles to defend in the post and to rebound, so Ayton should get his fourth straight game of double-digit boards. Ayton is averaging 15.8 points and 11.9 rebounds per game and we do see flashes of offensive upside as he can break the 20-point barrier. 

With three games of last six in which Capela has broken the 50-fantasy point mark, I’m not expecting to see Capela’s in this range much longer. Capela now has nine straight games of double-digit rebounds and his offensive upside has also been on display. We are getting a bargain here tonight as the 23-point, 17 rebound performance (in just 29 minutes) from Capela last night, is not baked into his price. 

The young center gets plenty of opportunity to put his offensive skills on display, and in his last two games since a three-game absence, Allen is averaging 22.5 points and 13 rebounds. No Evan Mobley really helped Allen, so he does take a little hit here with Mobley’s expected return. 

Aldridge is turning back the clock as far as production goes and the fact that he has moved back into the starting lineup helps as we don’t have to worry about playing time. In his last four games, the veteran is averaging 19.5 points and eight rebounds per game which should perfectly in all lineups.