NBA DFS Playbook: December 9

The San Antonio point guard has taken a nice step forward so far this season as he has developed in all facets of his game. With averages of both 8.4 rebounds and assists per game, Murray has triple-double potential on a nightly basis even if he hasn’t really gotten there yet this season. He isn’t going to be cheap tonight, but for the most part you get what you pay for out of Murray as a base with the upside sprinkled on top. 

Westbrook has a good match-up against Memphis tonight, and it was a good sign to see him bounce back offensively against Boston on Tuesday with 24 points. For the most part, Westbrook hasn’t had many problems scoring as of late, so it was nice to see that it was just a game blip against the Clippers. While he isn’t up to double figures in assists or rebounds per game yet, Westbrook did finish with 11 assists as well on Tuesday, and he is worth a look tonight as he isn’t the most expense PG at FD either. 

We might not know what we are going to get from White on a nightly basis as he has two games of 12 points mixed in with three games in which he scored 24, 25, and 26 points over his last five. For the most part White has been breaking the 30-minute mark on a nightly basis and his scoring has followed. Based on pricing, this is more of a fade on FD as the value on DK is clearly a lot better. 

I’m generally not the biggest Conley fan, but he is a dependable option on a nightly basis with little variance in his performance in most cases. Two games ago we saw the best Conley had to offer with 29 points and seven assists against Boston, but then he came back down to earth with 11 points in his next game but there is still enough here to make him a viable cash game option. 

With Ja Morant out, Jones continues to start for Memphis and his last three games he is averaging 13.3 points with just over four rebounds and just under eight assists per game. Based on both the price and the favorable matchup against the Lakers, I like Jones at this price tonight. 

Curry is going to play a lot and shoot a lot. Some nights are going to be more efficient than others, and based on the volume he gets, things are generally pretty good for Curry. Over his last four games, Curry is averaging just over five assists per game and that is a trend we want to see continued. 

After missing three games for health and safety protocols, Hyland is back and while it’s unsure what he will be capable of from a minute perspective, Denver could use the help. When we last saw Hyland, he scored 19 points and handed out three assists in 20 minutes and that’s a reasonable expectation with a similar workload. We do have to keep an eye on the minutes though, as Hyland played 16 minutes in his return last night scoring nine points.

With four straight games of over 30 points, Mitchell is humming along pretty well offensively. What is holding him back, is the fact that doesn’t have more than six assists or five rebounds in any of those four games. We should be good for at least 40-45 fantasy points again tonight, but I’m not sure how heavily I want to invest in chasing a fifth straight 30-plus point outing. 

After being a popular option at the start of the season, Bane is back squarely on our radar. The absence of Ja Morant helps here as Bane has been picking up some of the offensive slack as he comes off games of 29 and 21 points. As a nice touch, Bane is also averaging 8.5 rebounds to go along with that scoring outburst so he offers a nice amount of upside at the price. 

Take what I said about Bane, downgrade it slightly, and apply it here to Brooks. At 17.3 points per game, Brooks doesn’t have any issues on the offensive end but that is ultimately the bulk of his production. 

Not only was Barton able to play without issue last night, but he got 41 minutes of run against New Orleans. The guard scored 20 points to go along with six assists and three rebounds as he continues to be a dependable scoring option for Denver even if his upside appears to be limited. 

This is a GPP look only has Monk’s playing time and offensive production both fluctuate on a nightly basis. Things have been better (around 20 points per game) than bad (two points in 21 minutes a few games ago), as the playing time has been there with LeBron James dealing with COVID and an abdominal injury in recent days. With James back in action, there is greater variability to Monk’s playing time so he becomes a little riskier but that hasn’t slowed him down from putting up points. 

Staying with the theme in Los Angeles, Horton-Tucker has been doing a good job of filling the box score as of late even with James back in the lineup. The upside we get here is based more on Horton-Tucker’s price than anything else. 

The matchup is right against the Grizzlies, and James has been pretty locked in as of late. It’s a good sign when 30 points, five assists, and four rebounds turns out to be the worst DFS performance in his last five games. As far as superstars go tonight, James is at the top of the list and will be a popular selection. 

We know that Bogdanovic is going to be busy putting up threes tonight as usual, and he generally makes enough of them to bring a 5x return. 

Anytime we can get a starter who plays at least 30-minutes per game at this price it’s hard not to be all in. After a two-game absence, O’Neale has returned with abandon averaging 11 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game. It is a nice improvement over his season marks, and at this price and playing time on a short slate, it’s hard to ignore. 

Stop me if you heard this before, but Davis is on the injury report for tonight. He is probable with his thumb injury and it hasn’t slowed him down yet, so there’s no reason not to move forward here. In his last five games, Davis hasn’t put up less than 46 FD points as he continues to stay pretty close to his season averages of 24.1 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. 

It’s a solid price tonight for Harris, but as usual I’m just not seeing any GPP upside. Harris stays pretty close to 19.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game and we are a lot closer to 5x return at this point. There is something to be said for his consistency if it fits into your lineup. 

It’s a favorable match-up for Jackson tonight and his offensive upside has been on display as of late. While Jackson is still looking for true consistency, he does have games 25, 26, and 27 points among his last five outings. Couple that with his customary two blocks per game and a decent showing on the boards, and Jackson is one of my favorites tonight; especially on FD. 

Gordon continues to get all the playing time he can handle and at this point, a 5x return has become the minimum expectation. He is scoring at a better clip than we previously were used to, and even in a worst-case scenario, Gordon still put up 23 FD points last night after scoring just 10 points but chipping in across each of the categories. 

It’s hard to argue with the price here, and you know you are getting 25 minutes of run in the starting lineup so that helps as well. In his last four games, McDermott is averaging 14 points per game along with a few rebounds and assists, and there is value as salary relief here. 

The problem here is playing time for Green, or lack thereof, and that’s what makes this a risky proposition. However, it’s hard to ignore his 26.5 FD points last night in just 16 minutes of action on the heels of 10 points and five rebounds. 

So much for a right forearm contusion for Jokic. All the center did last night was put up a second triple-double in as many games and with 39 points on the night he was clearly locked in offensively while picking up 11 rebounds and 11 assists. If Jokic didn’t turn the ball over six times, turnovers have been a problem as of late, his night would have been that much better from a DFS perspective, but he is still one of the top options on the slate. 

As far as centers go, tonight we get two of the best to choose from, and Embiid also played last night. Before we get any further, we need to be aware of any potential minute limits or restrictions for tonight while also noting that while elite, Embiid did play Charlotte in each of his last two games. After going for 43 points, 15 rebounds, and seven assists on Monday in perhaps his best game of the season, the center followed that up with 32 points, eight rebounds, and four assists last night which was bumped up by him going 15 of 19 from the free throw line. Considering the level Embiid is currently scoring and rebounding out, it is nice tonight that we don’t have as much pressure to force Jokic into our lineups or be at a huge disadvantage. 

The Utah center has broken the 50 FD point mark in two of his last four games so some upside is there, but he also doesn’t come cheap tonight. Despite averaging 14.8 points and 14.5 rebounds per game, there is some inconsistency that takes me off Gobert from a cash game perspective and it’s really all about differentiation in GPP lineups than anything here. 

Poetl hums along getting every so close to a double-double, 12.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, and the center generally stays relatively consistent to those marks. In each of his last seven games, Poetl hasn’t put up less than 30 FD points and there is a good chance he finishes closer to 40 FD points and that is what you are looking for at this price point if you fade the more expensive center options. 

Based on the price I get it. At the same time, while we know what he is capable of, we don’t want to fall into the trap of chasing performances like the 17 points and 16 rebounds that Adams put up on Monday.