NBA DFS Playbook: December 14

Saturday night didn’t agree with Curry as he made just three of 14 three-point attempts. Things got a little better for him last night, and now Curry is just two three-pointers away from breaking the all-time record. You could say that the universe lined up for the point guard as now the record-breaking moment will come at Madison Square Garden. It’s all about the narrative here tonight, but the match-up is also favorable against the Knicks as Curry comes off a 26 point, six rebound, six assist performance that would have been a lot better if he didn’t turn the ball over seven times. Let’s hope the cover jinx doesn’t impact the record, but if it does, then we might have a real problem here. 

Not only did Lillard return on Sunday, but he didn’t miss a beat either. Well at least from a performance and usage perspective that is as while Lillard did put up 24 points, it came strictly off of him getting to the free throw line as he made just five of 17 shots (including three of 14 from downtown). While it’s not a great sign that he took so many shots from behind the arc, Lillard did get to the line plenty. 

Paul is coming off a down scoring night as he scored just 10 points against Boston in his last game, but thanks to 12 assists, it was still DFS night overall. With double-double digit assists in four of his last five games, it makes up for variability we have seen in Paul’s scoring as of late. 

Kemba Walker is still out of the rotation and the Knicks are shorthanded, so Rose figures to be busy again tonight. We have seen this level of success from Rose before so it’s not of nowhere as he is coming off an 18 point, seven assist performance against Milwaukee on Sunday. It should be noted that Rose started on Sunday with Alec Burks sidelined, but I would still expect the playing time to be there as he steps into the minutes now vacated by Quentin Grimes. 

Simons returned to action on Sunday and his offensively ability on full display. In 33 minutes of action, he put Simons put up 26 points, and with C.J McCollum still sidelined, we have some more time to see what he can do. 

For as long as Devin Booker is out, Payne is going to grab my attention as a scoring threat off the bench. When we last saw Payne, he scored 17 points in 22 minutes while handing out five assists and grabbing four rebounds. The opportunity should continue to be there tonight. 

Harden continues to play around 40 minutes a game and take a ton of shots each night, but he is still not the same player we had become accustomed to seeing in years past. There will still be the game when Harden lives in the 60-fantasy point range, but it is too common to see him in the 40’s this season as he struggles with shooting efficiency. This isn’t to completely bash Harden as he is averaging 9.6 assists and 7.9 assists per game and has double-digit assists in three of his last four games. 

On a three-game slate, our options are limited, but I still feel comfortable targeting Trent as he will likely return 5x value. After back-to-back 24-point efforts, Trent is coming off a 10-point game against the Kings, but he did pick up three steals for the second straight game, and with four assists all wasn’t lost. 

Burks returns after one a game absence tonight and likely steps back into the starting lineup. From a workload standpoint, he replaces Quentin Grimes who is now the third Knick on the COVID list. We know that Burks is going to get all the minutes he can handle, but when we last saw him on Friday, the shot simply wasn’t falling as he managed just one point. We aren’t getting a true bargain here, but if Burks can get a few shots to fall (not a huge leap) and combine that with a few rebounds and assists, and it’s still a fair cost. 

Quickley might find himself in the starting lineup tonight with New York missing two backcourt pieces, but regardless, he should finish in the 25–30-minute range once again. On Sunday, Quickley scored 11 points to go along with five assists and two steals, and I would consider that to be a solid floor. If IQ gets hot, there is some real upside here, but you have to watch the pricing on the different sites. 

Mills is no longer a bargain, but it’s still a fair price for someone that plays around 35 minutes a night. On Sunday, Mills scored 18 points to go along with five assists and three rebounds as he scored in double digits for the seventh straight game. The Nets are also very shorthanded tonight, so Mills should be busy. 

There is a theme of Nets here tonight as they are missing four key contributors, and that means Brown should see an uptick in minutes while potentially moving into the starting lineup. He hasn’t consistently scored in double digits this season, but the tools for it are there and he also does a good job of filling that stat sheet across the board. 

The rookie continues to take step forwards on a nightly basis, and when we last saw him on Sunday, Thomas scored 13 points in 29 minutes to go along with four rebounds and three assists. We do have to note that Harden had a rest day on Sunday, but things were already trending this way. Playing time won’t be an issue tonight with Brooklyn missing multiple pieces. 

With no Harden, Durant took full control of Brooklyn’s offense going for 51 points while shooting an efficient 16 of 31 from the field. It’s not a secret that Durant can score, but he also filled the stat sheet by handing out nine assists and grabbing seven rebounds. As far as upside goes tonight, Durant is at the top of the list. Durant is now questionable with a sore ankle for tonight, but with Brooklyn already missing four contributors, I would expect the forward to take the court unless it truly is a health issue.

Even for those following along on a nightly basis, it was a little shocking to see where Barnes’ price is at these days. The rookie does benefit from OG Anunoby being sidelined, and he has been raising his performance levels on a nightly basis. Don’t expect the five blocked shots he registered to happen every night, but Barnes continues to score in double digits and his averages are up to 15.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. 

The scoring took a step back for Powell on Sunday, 15 points in 38 minutes, but the playing time continues to be there. At 17.3 points per game, Powell can score, and he doesn’t have to do much on top of that to get to 5x. 

Get me 30 fantasy points tonight, and I’m good at this price. Based on what we have seen out of Wiggins as of late, that is a very reasonable expectation as he is averaging 18.4 points per game. Factor in some rebounds along with some other assorted production, and a 5x return is well within your grasp. 

We still have to monitor Deandre Ayton’s status for tonight, but Johnson has taken advantage of Phoenix missing Devin Booker as well as their starting center. It is now six straight games that Johnson has scored in double-figures as the first man off the bench for the Suns. With 17 points and six rebounds in 34 minutes of play while also coming up with three steals, this is a situation I feel comfortable riding for as long as Booker is out as Johnson is clearly the better, and more relied upon player, than Landry Shamet despite the latter being in the starting lineup. 

The calf is no longer an issue for Little, but he only played 20 minutes on Sunday and didn’t do much to stand out (10 points and two rebounds). We know that he is capable of more, and as a key part of Portland’s rotation, I’m banking on that tonight from a GPP perspective based on the price. 

With Obi Toppin and RJ Barrett sidelined on Sunday we had a Knox sighting as the much maligned forward got 28 minutes of run. For tonight, we can add Quentin Grimes to the list of Knicks on the bench, so I would expect a similar workload for Knox as he looks to build on his 18-point, five rebound performance.

At this point, it is same to surmise that something is up with Randle. This is not the same player we saw last season, as we have only seen that level of success in sporadic flashes this year. The Knicks are shorthanded tonight with Obi Toppin, RJ Barrett, and Quentin Grimes on the COVID list, and all of the focus is going to be squarely on Stephen Curry as he goes after some record. Despite the criticism, Randle is still averaging 19.1 points, 10 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game as he comes off down effort on Sunday against the Bucks when he scored just eight points in 35 minutes of action and even more grotesquely, turned the ball over seven times. The price has come down a little that on a short slate, I’ll consider it for GPP, but I’m still keeping my cash distance. 

Don’t judge Siakam too hard for his performance against Sacramento last night (16 points, eight rebounds, and four assists) as it came in just 29 minutes of action. Toronto also was careful with Siakam knowing they were playing again tonight. Now that his price is below $8k on FD, Siakam has settled into a solid pocket of value. 

At 15 points last night, we saw Green hit offensive numbers that he previously hadn’t all season. On an overall basis, Green finished where he generally has from a DFS perspective with nine rebounds and five assists, but I wouldn’t bank on another offensive explosion unless we see it become a trend. There is always the possibility he hits double figures in rebounds and assists, but I’m still more comfortable with leaving Green for my cash lineups. 

The price and the minutes are always right here, but Crowder does present with some volatility on a night-to-night basis. You don’t want to get into a situation where you pay for and plan for Crowder to score 16 or 19 points as he did in back-to-back games over the past week and get the six points he scored last night. Overall, it was an off night for Crowder as he generally contributes more than two rebounds and one assist. 

Nance moved into the starting lineup on Sunday and came through with a solid performance scoring eight points and grabbing 12 rebounds in 25 minutes of action. The expectation here is that Nance gets another start tonight and turns in a similar performance, but I wouldn’t expect much more than that; although it does land in that 5x range and the price does give you some roster flexibility. 

It’s very hard to argue with the price tonight, and someone will need to make up for the offense lost with LaMarcus Aldridge among four players sidelined tonight. Brooklyn appears to be thin in the forward department, so Griffin should see some increased run which means he will have an opportunity to put up some shots. 

If Ayton plays, he is one of the better options at the center position on tonight’s slate. However, that doesn’t mean you need to drop everything and try to fit him into your lineup although it’s hard to argue with his season averages of 16.3 points and 11.1 rebounds per game. 

With Lillard back, Nurkic is really in a complementary role offensively for Portland and it showed on Sunday as he managed just eight points, albeit in 21 minutes, along with seven rebounds. Even with that as the case, Nurkic is still a reliable center option averaging 13.1 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. 

This feels similar to Andre Drummond earlier in the year, but McGee’s price is still pretty reasonable. At this point, if Ayton returns, then I’m looking in a different direction, but if McGee is back as the starting center, then sign me up as he comes of a 13-point, 13 rebound performance in 25 minutes against the Clippers last night. 

Boucher seems to have settled in at the 22–26-minute mark of playing time, and last night he scored 17 points while grabbing five rebounds against the Kings. This role seems to suit Boucher, and the playing time appears to be consistently there as he has established a nice floor for himself. 

While he is never really included in the offensive game plan for Brooklyn, Claxton does find his way to a few baskets per night. Where we really see his value is on the defensive end, and with LaMarcus Aldridge and Paul Millsap out tonight, the playing time will be there. 

Robinson was efficient on Sunday grabbing nine points and eight rebounds in just 18 minutes of action. The absence of Toppin doesn’t appear to be giving him any additional playing time, but he has shown the ability to pack a lot of production into a small amount of minutes.