NBA DFS Playbook: December 21

With no Anthony Davis, the Lakers are down to two stars, but Westbrook continues to be inefficient from a shooting perspective this season. Overall, it’s hard to argue with the 46 FD points he put up on Sunday against the Bulls and while he has shown some upside this season, we have also seen the downside of that as of late. This remains a GPP only option if you are going to submit multiple lineups on a five-game slate, and that’s about it. 

Lillard followed up a 43-point outing with 32 points on Saturday, so we want him to play tonight. It’s a strong match-up against New Orleans so Lillard would be one of my favorite plays but we do have to keep an eye on his hamstring and questionable tag it warranted. 

In 24 minutes, Paul scored 14 points and grabbed nine assists before exiting early with a hand injury. The fact that he’s not even on the injury report for tonight is a good sign. With Devin Booker back, Paul won’t be leaned on as much offensively but we shouldn’t overlook what he has done this season (14.4 points and 10.1 assists per game). 

Miami is still short-handed and Lowry continues to take on a larger role offensively for the Heat. He is coming off two straight double-doubles (19 points and 10 assists on Saturday) and I’m banking on the shots falling once again tonight in a good matchup against Indiana. Note the price difference tonight between FD and DK. 

The Knicks are shorthanded again tonight and Cunningham brings a ton of upside to the table. On Saturday that led to just four points, but the rookie salvage some of the night with 10 assists. In his last eight games prior to that, Cunningham hadn’t scored less than 16 points with a high of 28 in that stretch. Avoid him based on the price at DK. 

We have seen Graham’s price rise over the last few days thanks to a recent surge in his performance. The guard is coming off a 26-point, four rebound, four assist performance and in a strong matchup against Portland, he should continue on this path for a third straight game. 

The price is right here and the minutes are there, but we don’t know what offensive version of Vincent we will get. Vincent has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last five games but he followed up 26- and 27-point outings by scoring just eight points on Saturday. Factor in a few assists, and Vincent has some upside tonight. Keep in mind that Tyler Herro might return tonight. 

We aren’t getting a bargain here with Thomas, but the Lakers wasted no time inserting the guard right into their starting lineup. In two games, Thomas is averaging 16 points per game since joining Los Angeles and the shot volume should continue. 

If Lillard’s hamstring keeps him from taking the court tonight, Simons is going to see an uptick in playing time and he has shown the offensive upside to match when given the chance this season. 

With Minnesota being shorthanded, Nowell has taken advantage of things over the last two games. With 19 and 18 minutes respectively, Nowell has been forced to be efficient with his time on the court averaging 15 points, 3.5 rebounds, and two assists per game. At this point, Nowell has earned more playing time, and it appears to be available. 

It’s just been one game back for Booker after his hamstring injury, and the price made me do a double-take. Phoenix eased Booker back into action with 26 minutes on Saturday against Charlotte, and it was a solid performance with 16 points along with six rebounds, and five assists. 

With Luka Doncic still sidelined, Brunson’s price continues to increase. If you checked in earlier in the day, no your eyes aren't deceiving you, I did replace Tim Hardaway Jr. with Brunson. Initially, I was on the former, based in part to his cost, but with Hardaway now sidelined, I'm firing up Brunson tonight. He is coming off an 18 point, 11 assist effort and the usage will continue to be there tonight as Brunson continues to be a large part in Dallas' offense. 

Hart has found a nice groove as of late with New Orleans filling the box score across all categories. When we last saw Hart he scored 11 points while grabbing 15 rebounds to go along with eight assists. It was his third time reaching double-digit rebounds in his last five games while scoring in double figures in each game. 

LeVert started off slow this season but the offensive has been coming along as of late as evidenced by his 31 points against Detroit in his last game. We have seen a slight boost to LeVert’s overall output as of late and seeing him the stat sheet shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. 

For as long as Miami is short-handed, we will continue to take advantage of the situation, but prices are beginning to increase. Strus followed a 32-point outing up by scoring 24 points against Detroit on Saturday, and for as long as the minutes are there, the offensive upside is there even if Herro might return. 

We know how shorthanded the Knicks are, and Burks should see all the minutes he can handle once again tonight. In 41 minutes against Boston on Saturday, Burks scored 19 points while filling out the stat sheet with six rebounds and four assists and nothing about it was especially surprising. The price on DK is equally as surprising. 

At this point, it’s hard to ignore Diallo as he gets around 25-minutes a game and it’s hard to argue with the price. On Saturday, we saw the swingman score 15 points while grabbing seven rebounds as he should finish with around 5x-6x value. 

We are used to James being on the injury report, and that is the case again tonight although there doesn’t appear to be any impediments on his status. With Anthony Davis sidelined, there is even more opportunity for James and all he did on Saturday was score 31 points while grabbing 14 rebounds. I would expect James to be locked in tonight in a good matchup against Phoenix.

As the only game in town offensively, Ingram has found consistency in living up to his cost. On Friday, against Milwaukee he had a solid performance with 22 points, five rebounds, and five assists while also picking up three steals after averaging 29 points in his three previous games. 

No matter what, there is value here as Powell comes off a 28-point performance against Memphis on Saturday as he remains in the starting lineup. If Lillard is sidelined thanks to his hamstring, then Powell’s usage will only increase but then we are getting even chalkier. In four of his last six games, Powell has broken the 20-point mark as he has shown no issues scoring as of late. 

With 17 rebounds and nine assists over his last two games, in a combined 64 minutes, Little is proving that he can be relied on from a DFS perspective. While he has clear double-digit scoring potential, we have seen some variability to his offensive game as of late, but Little did bounce back with 12 points on Sunday and the rest of his production has now established a solid floor for the price. 

Sometimes it’s all about necessity. The Knicks brought Fournier in to be an offensive threat this off-season, and for most of the early part of the schedule, things haven’t gone according to plan. That was both from a performance and then a playing time perspective but with a plethora of guards on the COVID list, Fournier was back as a large part of the rotation. With no one else to take the shots and play the minutes, he has scored 23 and 32 points in his last two games and we should get more of the same from Fournier tonight. 

With no Jerami Grant and Bey seeing an increased workload as of late, his price for tonight is a pleasant surprise. I know he has left some frustrated DFS players in his wake recently, but based on what we know Bey is capable of and his performance over the last three games (25.6 points, six rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game), it’s hard not to stay on the bandwagon. 

After missing six games, Holiday is back in the starting lineup and this is more about a cost saving option than anything else. He played 26 minutes against Detroit last week and scored 17 points, but the only other production we got from him was two rebounds and a block. At his price, we are still talking about a 5x return, but this is more or less salary relief. 

I want to include Sabonis here based on the short slate, his upside, and so he shows up in the lineup generator. The price has come down slightly, but I’m not sure I would call it truly good news as Sabonis’ performance has dictated that. We did have a nice stretch out of Sabonis last week as he went four games without putting up less than 45 FD points, but then he scored just 28 points combined in his next two games. At 18.3 points and 11.8 rebounds per game, Sabonis is still producing but the floor is a little lower and common place than we previously were used to. 

Now more than ever, the shot volume is there for Randle. We just need to work on the forward’s efficiency as the Knicks sort out their early season struggles. Randle is still averaging 19.6 points per game and he went for 31 points a few nights ago so all is not loss, but things are a little riskier than we were previously accustomed to. With 9.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, the production is still there, just at a reduced level, but we can’t discount the constant potential for a double-double with triple-double upside; it just comes with a lower probability. 

Porzingis has emerged as a legit scoring option with Doncic sidelined while also, on occasion, stepping up on the boards. At his current price, there isn’t much value left, and we also have to watch his toe injury for tonight. 

This is the Covington we grew accustomed to seeing last season as he has stepped up his production as of late. We like that he generally plays around 30 minutes a night, and while we can’t bank on consistent offensive production, he did score 13 points on Sunday and Covington also has been stepping up his efforts on the board. At this price, it’s not a glaring value, and you are also banking on the blocked shots; 13 in his last five games. On FD, this is GPP only, but the price is low enough on DK to roll Covington out regardless of lineup. 

While Jones is averaging just 7.3 points per game, he has shown as of late to be more capable offensively. We are still going to get games where he scores just two points in 23 minutes (15 FD points) but it’s also hard to ignore the 17 point, nine rebound, four assist performance we got from Jones in his last game. 

Nance continues to get the minutes for Portland, and anytime a player puts up 30 FD points while only scoring two actual points, they have my attention. At 6.3 points per game, it’s not like Nance is a huge scorer, but he can hit double figures while generally filling the stat sheet otherwise. 

The fact that McDaniels starts grabs our attention, but this really a salary cap inclusion. In his last four games, McDaniels is averaging just under 10 points per game along with 4.5 rebounds, so there isn’t anything here that will really jump off the page, but he should see around 25 minutes and the price is right. 

Towns is clearly one of the best players taking the floor tonight and we have a good matchup against Dallas. Seeing Towns’ price dip every so slightly below $10k on FD also grabs our attention and it’s hard to argue with 24.4 points and nine rebounds per game as a baseline. 

It’s easy to let the mind wonder to see Ayton could have done if he played more than 23 minutes on Sunday against Charlotte. After playing 44 minutes in his first game back after a two-game absence, the Suns haven’t needed much from Ayton in his next two games; a combined 47 minutes. It’s hard to argue with the efficiency though as Ayton averaged 15 points and 12.5 rebounds. Tonight, Ayton gets a Lakers team that is without Anthony Davis. 

I know I have said it before, and I’ll continue to say it, but Valanciunas just continues to hum along with his double-double of 18.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. On occasion we see a little boost off of that, but for the most part Valanciunas is a steady contributor at a pretty high level. 

Turner has done a solid job all season from a scoring and rebounding perspective, but it’s his 13 blocked shots over his last three games that catch my attention. It is in his skill set, but Turner is a GPP only option for me as a decent party of his value is tied to those blocked shots. 

With no PJ Tucker tonight, Dedmon should be busy for Miami. Dedmon has scored in double figures in each of his last five games, and the minutes will continue to be there. For the value to really be there though, we need Dedmon to consistently crash the boards. 

Even though he is coming off the bench, Robinson has been busy as of late for the shorthanded Knicks. He generally will stay close to his 7.6 rebounds per game, but there is some risk here as the scoring does fluctuate on a nightly basis.