NBA DFS Playbook: December 30

It’s a good matchup for Holiday tonight, and if there was any doubt of that, we had a preview on Tuesday as he went for 18 points and 10 assists against this same Orlando team. Holiday has been locked in offensively as of late as he is averaging 20.8 points while also averaging 7.5 assists per game as well. Keep in mind though, Milwaukee is healthier in the backcourt and we do have the risk of a blowout, but Holiday was able to lock in enough production before exiting on Tuesday. 

After going for 29 and 26 points in back-to-back games, Curry dropped to scoring 35 points in his next three games combined. With that being said, we know that Curry can shoot the lights out, and he certainly gets the chance to on a nightly basis. When it comes to Curry, you have to take the good shooting with the bad as he is averaging 16 points per game this season. 

Hampton isn’t as cheap as he was a few games ago, but he remains in the starting lineup and the price is still affordable. After going for 14 points and five assists in his first game back off the COVID list, Orlando still isn’t at full strength so Hampton remains in the starting lineup, he followed that up with nine points, four assists, and three rebounds against the same Bucks team he faces tonight. Especially on DK and Yahoo tonight, it's hard to miss Hampton. 

Orlando continues to be shorthanded and that means Frazier will likely get about 20 minutes of playing time once again tonight. His best performance came on Tuesday in which he scored five points to go along with three assists and three rebounds, so we mostly are chasing the minutes here. 

It seems like the missing piece to Harden’s season was that he just needed a break. After a stint on the COVID list, Harden has come back on fire as he has two straight games of 70-plus FD points. Harden followed up a triple-double against the Lakers by scoring 39 points while handing out 15 assists and grabbing eight rebounds. We know that none of this should come as a surprise from Harden, but Kevin Durant will be back tonight to share the load. 

After spending three games on the COVID list, Beal is questionable to return tonight, and while we haven’t been keen on him this season, the price isn’t terrible, he’s facing a shorthanded Cleveland, and Beal doesn’t have any issues offensively. When we last saw Beal, he scored 37 points against Utah along with seven assists and five rebounds. The price on DK does make it tough tonight though and is a likely fade. 

After missing two games, Thomas is back in action for a Brooklyn team that is getting closer to full strength but isn’t quite there yet. The rookie scored 15 points in his last game against Orlando while rounding out his stat sheet with seven rebounds and four assists. 

While Harris is one-dimensional and the majority of his production does come from his offense, but he’s going to see enough playing time tonight to make him a GPP option in a game that Orlando should be chasing in. 

The Milwaukee guard has played 15 minutes in each of his first two games of the season after returning from injury, so the hope here is that he gets a little more run tonight. This is GPP only, but he was efficient with eight points and six rebounds against Orlando on Tuesday. 

It doesn’t get any cheaper than Anderson tonight, and there certainly is plenty of opportunity in Cleveland’s backcourt. There is risk, and potential value, aplenty there, so my inclination is to really scrap the bottom of the salary pile. But will Anderson play 30 minutes (scoring seven points with five rebounds and four assists) or 13 minutes (two points, two assists, and one rebound)?

Durant was on fire prior to his three-game stint on the COVID list, and all indications are that he should pick up right where he left off with no limitations. Except this time, Durant should have a little more help (for better or worse) than when we last saw him. 

Middleton doesn’t come cheap tonight, and while he’s not truly remarkable with Milwaukee at full strength, he is one of the better small forward options tonight. He did break the 20-point mark in three of his last four games and is averaging a solid 18 points, 5.3 rebounds and five assists per game this year. 

With Orlando shorthanded, Wagner is getting to do more and more and he certainly is living up to it. Someone needs to do the scoring for the Magic, and when we last saw Wagner on Tuesday against the Bucks, all he did was score 38-points while grabbing seven rebounds along with three assists. 

In the three games Beal was missed, Kuzma averaged 17.3 points per game, but maybe more importantly he was a force on the boards with nine rebounds per game. Now if only Kuzma can keep this going? Even if Beal returns, there’s no reason why Kuzma shouldn’t keep up the success; or at least find consistency in his game. 

Back to Cleveland we go. Playing time hasn’t really been an issue for Okoro all season, but that is highlighted more so now as they are shorthanded. Of course, we don’t know what version of Okoro we are going to get as he went from 18 and 20 points prior his three-game stint on the COVID list to scoring just six points in 30 minutes of action on Tuesday. 

It’s a narrative we have gotten used to, but playing time and opportunity is available for Schofield tonight. When given an extended look, Schofield has shown some offensive ability while being active on the boards. At the price, it’s not a heavy lift to a 5x return. 

Kispert is a late addition here, but with the removal of Spencer Dinwiddie from the PB as he enters the COVID list, this is the pivot for tonight. Even if Beal and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope do return, Kispert is going to get plenty of volume once again. He shoots a ton, and did score 14 points in 38 minutes on Tuesday (after 20 points a few games ago) with three rebounds and three assists. 

With Milwaukee favored by 14.5 points tonight, the blowout risk is real. The worst-case scenario is likely similar to what we saw on Tuesday when Antetokounmpo scored 28 points in 29 minutes along with six rebounds and six assists. This isn’t a lock and load for me, but you’ll likely want some exposure here. 

The problem here is that Portis’ price has gotten a little out of hand as the Bucks work their way back to full strength. Starting at in the middle for Milwaukee, there is nothing wrong with the 19 points and seven rebounds we got out of Portis on Tuesday, but his price has taken a way a lot of the value. 

As Harris’ price has dropped to more manageable number and I begin to change my tune on him, all the forward did was drop a triple-double on Tuesday. In 35 minutes of action against Toronto, Harris scored 19 points while grabbing 12 rebounds and handing out 10 assists. I’m not chasing a repeat performance, but at this price, you don’t have to as a minimum return of 5x is very possible tonight. However, my good feelings don't expend towards using Harris on DK. 

After missing two games with a leg injury, Carter is just two points shy of three straight double-doubles (he is averaging 12.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game) following a 19-point, 10 rebound effort against Milwaukee on Tuesday. Granted a good deal of that production did come in the second half after the game was out of hand, but a similar script tonight wouldn’t be the worst thing for Carter. 

What year are we in? The fact that Love is coming off the bench doesn’t matter as he still played 32 minutes on Tuesday. Love is taking advantage of Cleveland being shorthanded, but even as they continue to get some pieces back in the front court, they are still lacking for scorers, and Love has stepped up to fill that void. In five of his last six games, Love has broken the 30 FD point mark and he is averaging a solid 13.2 points and 7.3 rebounds per game this season. The potential return of Jarrett Allen will take away some value for Love, but not enough for me to be truly concerned.

Orlando is hurting for healthy bodies, so Wagner jumps onto our radar after making his return on Tuesday. He only played 10 minutes, but he did score seven points and projects to start tonight, so the opportunity is there. 

Tonight, might be a two-center night as Embiid has been locked in as well these days. He is coming off back-to-back 36-point performances and has at least 32 points in four of his last five games. Embiid is also rebounding at a high level these days, but he will have to deal with Nicolas Claxton tonight on defense, so while it’s not enough for me to completely fade him, I do prefer Jokic. 

It appears that we will get one more game with Mobley without Jarrett Allen tonight as the latter works his way back of the COVID list. Mobley made that very return on Tuesday and had a solid performance with 22 points and seven rebounds in 30 minutes of action. If you are fading the top options, Mobley is a worthy alternative. 

Claxton does have limitations on the offensive side of the ball, but in his last four games, the defensive force has between 28 and 35 FD points as he has reached double figures in three of those games. That is factored into his price, but as the Nets get healthier, I do have some doubts that will continue, although the playing time should. For obvious reasons though, Claxton becomes more attractive on DK. 

Given the shorthanded state of Washington’s front court, it’s not a surprise that Gafford got 36 minutes of playing time on Tuesday. With 16 points and 11 rebounds, Gafford delivered, and based on his price and the expectations of a similar role tonight, I’m willing to hunt for an encore.