NBA DFS Playbook: January 8

Ball comes into tonight after posting a double-double against Detroit in which he handed out 12 assists while grabbing eight rebounds. After two down games in both categories, it was nice to see him get going again there, but Ball’s offense suffered as he only scored 12 points. Perhaps tonight he can put it together, but it has been hurting his DFS value that Charlotte hasn’t been asking all that much from him when it comes to playing time.

Where did those 13 rebounds come from for Paul? At this point in his career, Paul isn’t going to score much more than the 14.1 points he is averaging per game, but the fact that is averaging almost 14 assists per game over his last three shouldn’t be surprising. Don’t chase a repeat of his performance on the boards, but I feel comfortable with a reasonable expectation of about 40 fantasy points. 

It is concerning to see Anthony on the injury report heading into tonight’s game, but if for anyone that watched him on Wednesday in his return, they likely aren’t worried. In just 25 minutes of action, Anthony didn’t miss a beat as he scored 26 points to go along with seven assists and five rebounds. Anthony is my favorite point guard on the slate (let’s hope I didn’t lay the jinx) as long as nothing changes with the ankle. 

After an early ejection on Wednesday, Lowry should be well rested tonight. The frustrating thing, is that Lowry was on his way towards a nice DFS performance with seven points and nine assists in just 16 minutes of action. The thought process here is that he picks up right where he left off. 

The rookie continues to get his volume, but his shot is sometimes too inconsistent. With that being said, Cunningham is still averaging 15.3 points along with six rebounds and 5.4 assists per game so we have a nice floor with some upside still in place. This is more of a FD play for me, as it's hard to get behind Cunningham's price on DK. 

While Burks’ offense has been inconsistent, the playing time continues to be there for the Knicks. On Saturday, Burks grabbed nine rebounds while handing out seven assists, so it was a still solid night for him. If we get a repeat of that with Burks scoring more than three points, then we will be in business tonight. 

The point guard has put together a nice stretch of success with 18.7 points, four assists, and four rebounds per game in his last three, he is a solid option at the price. 

At the price, Hayes doesn’t have a large hill to climb to get to a 4x to 5x return, and he should get around 25 minutes of playing time to do so. It’s a good matchup for Hayes tonight against Orlando, but this is all about the salary cap savings. 

It doesn’t get much worse than the five of 22 Booker shot from the field on Thursday, and I would look for rebound performance tonight as we know he is better than that. Booker has been active on the boards as of late and that provides a nice floor, but we are here for the 23.5 points per game he is averaging along with the three games of 30-plus points in his last six.

Talk about a wide range of outcomes from Rozier, but we know that if everything breaks right, he can get hot offensively. There are better options out there, but Rozier could have his place in a GPP lineup on a five-game slate. 

Smart isn’t necessarily known for his offense, averaging 11.6 points per game, but he is averaging 17.3 points per game in his last four while getting plenty of minutes and adding in some rebounds and assists to give us a nice floor. 

Ross is pretty good at what he does, and that is coming in off the bench and scoring. He plays pretty close to starters minutes and is averaging 22 points and almost six rebounds per game in his last three. If Franz Wagner is unable to play with his ankle injury, then I like Ross even more tonight. 

Let’s hope that Fournier’s thigh allows him to take the court tonight after he put up 41-points against this same Boston team on Thursday. Facing the Celtics has brought the best out of Fournier this season, but this is GPP only as his production has been all over the place this season.

If Fournier is out tonight, Quickley becomes a nice pivot, but he has some value on his own at this price as he did score 16-points on Thursday against Boston. 

Utah was extremely short-handed on Friday, so we have to expect that a good portion of that, if not all, continues tonight. This is a straight chase situation as the price is right and Butler scored 17 points in 31 minutes last night along with four assists and three rebounds. Things would have looked even better for him on Friday though if he didn’t turn the ball over eight times. 

COVID has created some playing time opportunities in Milwaukee and that led to Matthews being on the court for 29 minutes on Friday. The price is good as it gets, and the veteran does have some track record of producing as evidenced by his 12-point, seven rebound effort against the Nets. 

When Tatum is averaging 25.7 points per game on the season, I wouldn’t call it chasing after he scored 36 points on Thursday against the Knicks. With nine assists and six rebounds it was a well-rounded effort. Just keep in mind though, that Tatum won’t come cheap tonight. 

You have to figure that Boston will be motivated to avenge their defeat on Thursday after blowing a 25-point lead. Even though he is coming off just a 16-point performance, Brown is averaging 24.2 points per game. 

The Detroit forward had been on a role, but then he scored just 14-points in his last two games. For the most part, we are paying for what Bey did prior to that stretch, and while there is GPP upside, we don’t know which version of the forward we are getting. 

It’s a good match-up for Hayward against a Milwaukee team that played last night and is shorthanded. There is still a little more variability than I would like there to be in Hayward’s offensive production, but based on the pricing, he could fit nicely into certain lineups tonight; especially on DK. 

After his buzzer beating, game winning shot, no one will remember the poor shooting night that Barrett had on Thursday. If Fournier is out, Barrett should get a slight boost, but the volume will be there regardless, and all it will take, is a few more shots and we are surging past 5x value. 

Johnson’s price has risen as of late, but he is offensive upside has been on full display as of late off the bench for Phoenix. He is playing upwards of 30-minutes per night and Johnson is coming off a 24-point, seven rebound effort on Thursday. At this point, his price is only going to rise. 

Talk about taking advantage of the situation on Friday night. Essentially by default, Hughes played 40-minutes and certainly came through for the Jazz scoring 26 points while grabbing eight rebounds and adding four assists. Assuming he gets similar playing time tonight, I have no issues chasing a repeat performance at this price. 

With the Bucks shorthanded tonight, Antetokounmpo will really have the ball in his hands a lot in a favorable matchup against Charlotte. Yes, Milwaukee did play last night, but after playing only 26 minutes, I’m not concerned about rolling Antetokounmpo back out there tonight. His production in limited playing time (31 points, nine assists, seven rebounds) also has to have you feeling good about tonight. 

Indiana being shorthanded has helped here, but it seems like we have gotten back the Sabonis we had become accustomed to seeing. In four of his last five games, Sabonis has broken the 50 FD point mark and he is coming off a triple-double on Wednesday in which he scored 32 points against Brooklyn. There is limited star power tonight, and there are few that offer true 50-point upside, with Sabonis being one option. 

Depending on the site, we get a discount tonight on Randle. Perhaps his two-game stint on the COVID list was just the rest and refresh he needed, but I also have been burned on him at times this season. In the two games since his return, Randle looks more like the player we saw last season averaging 26 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists. With the Knicks hurting at the point guard position, the opportunity is there for Randle to keep up his success. 

Considering we are chasing blocked shots here; Williams isn’t exactly cheap. In each of his last two games, Williams has scored six points while grabbing nine rebounds but in one game he blocked two shots while blocking seven in the other. That variability makes him a GPP option only based on price. 

The price is starting to catch up to Smith, but he is also starting to make good on the potential we saw out of him. Smith has three double-doubles in his last five games and has also scored in double figures in all five. While he has benefited from Deandre Ayton being out over that stretch, I would imagine the Phoenix center will be limited in his first game back from a minute perspective and now that we have seen what Smith is capable of, it’s hard for the Suns to lock him up on the bench again. 

After missing four games, Washington had a solid return in which he scored 14 points while grabbing eight rebounds in 24 minutes. We get Washington at a fair price tonight and I’m not sure if anyone would be surprised by him hitting the 35 or 40 fantasy point mark with a floor of around 5x value. 

I know we want to hammer the playing time tonight with Nwora, 70 minutes in his last two games, but he isn’t as cheap as he was earlier in the season. Over those last two games, 15 points and four rebounds maybe be solid production, but at this price, Nwora is lacking for upside. 

As we look for value in Milwaukee, I feel a lot better about Portis and his upside. In 32 minutes last night, Portis scored 25 points while grabbing 12 rebounds, and while that is the high end of his expected performance, he is averaging 15.6 points and nine rebounds per game this season. 

Which version of Tucker will we get tonight? The playing time will be there regardless tonight, but in his last two games, the forward has gone from a six-point, three rebound performance to putting up 14 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists on Wednesday. This is GPP only based on the playing time and the cost. 

There is nothing too exciting with Lyles, but he has been one of the first options off the bench for Detroit as of late playing around 25 minutes per game. In his last three games, Lyles has hit between 5x and 6x value averaging 12.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, and while I wouldn’t force Lyles into my lineup, it’s not the worst thing in the world if you land on him based on your lineup construction. 

Yurtseven has been a monster on the boards for Miami with nine straight games of double-digit rebounds. Over that same stretch, there’s only game in which he failed to reach double figures in points with a high of 22-points. 

We aren’t getting a discount here on Whiteside, but if the production is there, we can live with that. The problem is that he failed to take advantage of his 30-minutes of playing time last night as he scored just seven points while grabbing only seven rebounds. This is GPP only, but we have seen Whiteside come through in the past and the minutes will be there once again. The price on FD drives me to do close to a complete fade here, but being that he is so cheap on DK and Yahoo, Whiteside is close to a must play. 

It took two games for Bamba to find his footing after returning from the COVID list, but he is coming off a 19-point, eight rebound effort against Philadelphia on Wednesday and should be on our radar on a shorter slate.

With Rudy Gobert sidelined and Utah shorthanded, Paschall is likely to get his share of minutes again tonight. Last night, Paschall scored 29 points in 36 minutes of action, and while we don’t want to get to caught up in chasing a repeat, the playing time should be there again and someone has to score.