NBA DFS Playbook: January 13

I feel like a broken record here, but it’s hard to pay up for Curry, other than in multi-entry GPP’s (especially on DK), when he doesn’t consistently get to 5x value. If we knew that he was going to get a triple-double again, like he did on Tuesday then it would be a different story, but it was only Curry’s second of the season. 

We will have to keep an eye on Harden’s status throughout the day, as while he hasn’t missed a game with a hyperextended knee, it’s the second half of back-to-back games for him. It also should be noted that Kyrie Irving will be unavailable for tonight’s game since it will take place in Brooklyn. With all three stars in the lineup, Harden went off in 33 minutes of action with 25 points, 16 assists, and seven rebounds as we search for an encore tonight. Durant is now out tonight, so assuming Harden is by himself (there is a chance Brooklyn accepts the minimal consequences and plays Irving at home), he will go off tonight. Even if Irving does play, Harden should be just fine based on his performance last night. 

The Grizzlies have been rolling as of late, and Morant is a large reason why. It seems we can write off his 16-point effort against the Lakers over the weekend as an aberration as he took just nine shots. In eight of his last ten games, Morant has taken at least 18 shots per game and over his last five games, he is averaging 25.8 points per game while shooting 51.1% from the field. It’s not the best match-up against Minnesota, but Morant continues to perform at a high level. 

Yes, SGA is shooting just 38.7% from the field over his last four games, but he has taken 62 shots over that stretch so we know that volume won’t be an issue. Tonight, Gilgeous-Alexander gets a Brooklyn team that played last night in Chicago that also struggles defensively. He is also coming off a strong game on Tuesday as Gilgeous-Alexander put up 32 points while handing out eight assists. At a fair price tonight, it’s hard not to like him tonight. 

Russell has a double-double in five of his last six games averaging 20 points and 11.6 assists and he has a favorable matchup tonight against Golden State. There’s no reason not to expect Russell to keep it up. 

It may not be an exciting option here, but Bledsoe has 16 assists in his last two games and is coming off an 11 point, nine assist performance on Tuesday against Denver. The Clippers aren’t exactly flush with options and Bledsoe has been getting solid minutes off the bench and that should continue tonight. 

Beverly continues to be efficient for Minnesota averaging 13.3 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game over his last four. In that stretch, Beverly has only played 25 minutes per game but based on the price and production, there is still enough here as we are getting 6x value on average at DK. 

There is limited upside here, but Morris does provide a nice floor around 25 DK points per game. We don’t have to worry about playing time as Morris has been playing about 30 minutes a night in the starting lineup for Denver, but I wouldn’t count on anything more than what we are seeing from him.

While Thomas is slated to come off the bench tonight, I'm not sure it matters as 30 minutes are in his future at a minimum. Last night Thomas made just one of four shots in 16 minutes of action but in his three prior games the rookie averaged 15.3 points and 4.6 rebounds with a high of 21 points. 

We have the last man standing here in Portland’s backcourt, and the price is right. When given extended playing time this season, Smith has come through in all aspects of his game with three games of at least 30 DK points last month, and I’m expected a similar outcome tonight despite how chalky Smith might be. 

After almost a two-week absence, Divincenzo returned on Monday but failed to make his presence felt as he missed all eight of his field goal attempts in 16 minutes of action. With Jrue Holiday out, the opportunity for playing time is there once again for Divicenzo and you have to imagine that he will get a few of those shots to fall tonight. 

In two of his last three games, Ingram has broken the 30-point mark, and he hit 56 DK points in each of those games thanks to proficiency on the boards and in the assist department. It was a far cry from his previous shooting struggles, but I’m still treading carefully with Ingram and only targeting him in GPP’s. 

Over his last six games, Edwards is averaging 23.2 points, 4.7 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game as he is settling in nicely in Minnesota. He priced pretty close to 5x value on DK but Edwards’ offensive upside has been on full display as of late. 

Bane isn’t cheap, but with Dillon Brooks out tonight, the volume isn’t going anywhere. It was a down effort for Bane on Tuesday as he only scored 11 points as he made just three of his 14 field goal attempts. The shot volume is nothing new for Bane and he is generally more efficient than this. 

Golden State has taken things slowly with Thompson in his first two games back as he has played 20 minutes each night. Thompson is averaging a solid 15.5 points per game with three rebounds and two assists as he works to shake off the rest. Usage hasn’t been a problem as Thompson has taken 31 shots from the field, so I would only expect his value and production to rise as he finds his accuracy as it appears we are stuck at the 20 minute mark for the next week or two. 

Coffey is getting all of the playing time he can handle for the shorthanded Clippers as of late, and he is proving worthy. In 43 minutes of action on Tuesday, Coffey came through with 18 points, seven assists, and five rebounds in what was his second straight strong effort. 

McLemore finds himself in the starting lineup for Portland once again, and with the playing time comes shot attempts and production. On Tuesday, McLemore showed off his scoring ability by putting up 20 points on six of 11 shooting and we should expect a similar performance tonight. 

It’s clear that Alexander-Walker has struggled this season, but he is still averaging 13.2 points per game with a steady role for New Orleans. Yes, he is averaging just nine points over 20 minutes in his last five games, and he probably has burned you recently as well, but the playing time will be there and I don’t hate the price. 

After missing over a week on the COVID list, it appears that Milwaukee will be getting Allen back while they are still down a few pieces in the backcourt. In his last two games prior to being forced to the sidelines, Allen took 25 shots from the field, and it’s worth a GPP dart throw to see if that volume continues as we know he can knock down shots in a hurry. 

Two straight monster games will certainly cause an $800 price increase on DK as it’s hard to argue with 27 points each night along with a combined 17 rebounds and 20 assists. Thirteen turnovers put a limit on his production, but after four straight games of at least 20 points, Middleton does deserve some attention even if he has likely priced himself out of cash lineups for the time being. For as much as I like what I’ve seen out of the forward as of late, he’s not someone I’m forcing into my lineup either. 

The rookie is another player whose price has risen lately, but with Giddey we actually get a little bit of a bargain. Giddey followed up two strong efforts by averaging about 30 DK points in his next two games so we got a bit of a discount heading into Tuesday’s game against Washington. All Giddey did then was score 18 points with eight rebounds and six assists which caused his price to only jump $100 on DK. Over his last five games, Giddey is averaging close to a triple-double (14 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 8.2 assists). There is a lot to like as he plays 34 minutes per game for the Thunder and is heavily featured on a nightly basis. 

To this point, Hart doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of slowing down. In fact, he kicked the scoring up a notch on Tuesday as he netted 21 points while grabbing nine rebounds. Hart has been more active on the boards as of late, and in his last five games the forward is averaging 16.3 points and 8.8 rebounds. If we are going to go with that as his baseline, he is currently priced at 5x on DK but there is something to be said for the consistency he brings with a little bit of upside. 

Two straight bad shooting nights have caused Morris’ price on DK to drop by $500. He is still a GPP only option, but it is a little more affordable if you think he will find his shot after shooting nine of 29 from the field in his last two games as the value will be there by default. 

Law of averages for Gordon means that he is going to follow up a 30-point outing with a dud. Despite playing time and shot volume being available, I just don’t have faith that Gordon is going to 16 shots (or make 11 of them) once again and it also cost you an additional $900 to find out on DK. 

In his last four games, Little hasn’t shot better than 33.3% from the field so while it’s hard to fully trust him, he’s also going to continue shooting for a Portland team that is missing a few key pieces. Little has still reached double figures in three of those four games, averaging 11 points per, so there is some value to be found. Perhaps more importantly, we are looking at upside if Little’s shot starts to fall again. 

If cheap minutes are what you are looking for, then McDaniels is your man. Despite being moved back to the bench, he still played 28 and 29 minutes in his last two games while averaging eight points and 4.5 rebounds per game. That isn’t too far off from his season average, and he should be able to get you to 5x on DK as a baseline. 

The rookie got the start on Wednesday, but with the Big-3 taking control of things, Edwards only took eight shots while he was on the court. From a positive perspective, he did finish with nine points, but Edwards generally doesn’t find his way into double digit scoring. Most nights he is usually good for a few rebounds, and tonight someone has to pick up the slack for Irving being sidelined. 

Bembry finds himself back in the starting lineup tonight with Durant on the sidelines, and while his usage generally isn't on the high side, he will get enough playing time to get to 5x value at a minimum. Especially on FD and Yahoo, Bembry certainly helps with salary cap flexibility as well. 

It’s hard to find much fault with Antetokounmpo’s game these days as he has the potential for a triple-double on a nightly basis while averaging 32.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 6.8 assist in his last five. While not cheap, we are seeing a minimal level of usage around 35% and he continues to be locked in. 

Can we please get some playing time for Jackson? Despite his success as of late and Steven Adams absence, he only played 22 minutes on Tuesday. Jackson still had enough time to put together a solid double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds as he benefited from Adams being out of the lineup. In the three games Adams missed, Jackson averaged 20 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, but with Adams questionable tonight, I would use discretion. 

The offense has been a pleasant surprise for Covington as he broke free with 21-points on Monday. With Larry Nance out again tonight, Covington is back in the starting lineup and given his solid all around production, we have a decent floor if his scoring goes take a step back. 

For the most part, it has been hard to argue with Nwora’s production as of late as you get a minimum of 10 shots and 30 minutes per game. A lot of his value does hinge on how that shot is falling, but he is averaging 15.4 points and 6.4 rebounds in his last 10 games, and I’ll take that as a baseline. 

If you really need to save money, Bazley could help to do that tonight despite coming off the bench for Oklahoma City. At the same time, I wouldn’t get too smitten by the 14-point, nine rebound performance we saw from Bazley on Tuesday as that is the high end of his production compared to season averages of 8.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. If Bazley was more efficient with his shot on a consistent basis, then this would be a different story. 

You know the bar is raised pretty high when a 21 point, 13 rebound, eight assist performance could be construed as a letdown. I’m not sure if Jokic is a must play tonight in all lineups as he sure isn’t going to come cheap, but you are going to want some exposure to him. 

With 33 points, 8.5 rebounds, and six assists over his last two games, Towns has settled back in after a two-week absence. If you want to come down off Jokic, while not cheap, Towns is a worthy option at what is actually a pretty deep center position tonight. 

Based on the price and the fact that he’s only taken 25 shots in his last three games (averaging 13.6 points per game) I don’t love Valanciunas tonight given the other options on either side of him. With that being said, he is only one rebound shy of seven straight games at double digits and it’s a good matchup against the Clippers and he has nice FD price. 

Nurkic continued to be an offensive threat with 14 points on Monday, but he surprisingly only grabbed eight rebounds against the Nets. I wouldn’t hold it against him even though it ended a streak of four straight games with double digit rebounds as he still has plenty of opportunity with Portland beat up. 

In what we thought was a smash spot for Portis against Charlotte, he only managed five points while taking seven shots, but Portis did grab 11 rebounds. Portis is still starting at center for Milwaukee, and I’m not against going back to the well tonight. 

If we are going to blame the fact that Zubac only played 10 minutes on Tuesday on the fact that he couldn’t keep up with Jokic, then we might have a situation to exploit tonight. With a price decrease of $700 on DK (and $900 from two games ago) Zubac could now be considered a value as long as he hits his season averages of 9.3 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. 

The rookie continues to benefit from the Nets being shorthanded in the middle, and with Nicolas Claxton out tonight, the good times should continue to roll as LaMarcus Aldridge is out as well. In his last two games, Sharpe is averaging 17 points and seven rebounds per game, and the best thing of all, is that his price hasn’t adjusted for what he did last night. 

As we add Claxton to the list of Nets out tonight, Griffin should get extended run tonight after scoring nine points and grabbing five rebounds last night.