First and foremost of note for UFC 267 is that this event is back in Abu Dhabi and will kick off Saturday morning, 10:30 AM ET for the Russian audience. Things have gotten wonky in the past between time changes, flights, and weight cuts abroad. We’ve only lost one fight so far and still have 14 scheduled. That’s a good sign. We’re also back to the typical, larger Octagon. Faster athletes with better footwork get a small bump. Russians tend to get slightly favorable judging in the region but don’t get carried away thinking they’re auto-wins. Also not that there are two five round title fights. That makes stacking in cash more viable and possibly even a double stack situation.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jan Blachowicz vs Glover Teixeira | 9000/7200 | - | Stackability: Safe | -305/ +240 | -105/+350 |
| Fan favorite Teixeira finally reaches the payoff of his hard work in his career's twilight with a second title shot. His tenacity in the face of adversity has gotten him here. He’ll need that with how sharp Jan’s kickboxing is at this point. Blachowicz has shown there’s power in his hands when he’s presented with the opportunity to use it, as well. It’s a fight that we can all feel good about but only one man will walk away champ. Jan’s tight style is just too unlikely to leave the opening Glover needs to do what he’s best at in scrambles. It’s stackable in cash, as well. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Islam Makhachev | 9600 | Dan Hooker | Somewhat-Safe | -650 | +140 |
| Makh isn’t shy about his game plan. He’s Khabib’s protégé and an excellent mimic of that top heavy wrestling approach. His challenge for our purposes is generating enough volume to score DK points since he has lesser odds to finish fights ITD. Add in the danger Hooker poses on the feet and it could be largely a grappling match. The main path to GPP value for him is via submission. | |||||
| Khamzat Chimaev | 9500 | Li Jingliang | Somewhat-Safe | -600 | -190 |
| There are a number of red flags to consider before blindly jumping back on MMA’s newest sensation. First, he had a tough bout with Covid that sidelined him an entire year. Second, he struggled to make weight this week. Third, he’s faced no resistance in the UFC. All that said, this is another very good spot if he’s recovered well enough. Li is scrappy and has some sneaky power but he’s been taken down repeatedly in the UFC. Khamzat is likely to pile up the takedowns and can easily finish the fight from top position. | |||||
| Albert Duraev | 9200 | Roman Kopylov | Moderate | -380 | -125 |
| The narrative of this fight is getting plenty of run this week. Duraev is an excellent grappler and Kopylov was taken down and submitted by the likes of Karl Roberson. That’s obviously a spot we want to target. The hype gives me slight pause, however. It’s overly simplistic and Kopylov has been off for two years. If he’s worked on the takedown defense it may not be the smash everyone is expecting. | |||||
| Magomed Ankalaev | 9100 | Volkan Oezdemir | Moderate | -310 | +100 |
| Ankalaev is a very complete fighter. His striking is pinpoint with power when he wants it. He has good reach and solid movement. He can grapple when needed. His Russian style is smothering. Volkan is a great test for Ankalaev. A win propels him into the title picture. Given Volkan’s recent layoff and nasty KO prior I can see a big win coming for Magomed. | |||||
| Lerone Murphy | 9300 | Makwan Amirkhani | Moderate | -305 | +130 |
| Lerone is stepping in on short notice to face a very dangerous submission artist in Amirkhani. For all his strengths in the grappling Makwan lacks a striking game entirely. If he trades with opponents it gets ugly. Murphy has shown himself to be a hammer in the UFC lately. Makwan becomes a nail if he doesn’t have his arms around your neck. | |||||
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 9400 | Allan Nascimento | Moderate | -410 | +165 |
| As a prospect, Tagir had everything we look for. Wrestling, great camp with Khabib, regional accolades. Then he debuted and the competition level caught up a little bit. He still beat Bruno Silva but it wasn’t the domination we anticipated. Bruno’s a vet, though. Nascimento is a live dog but probably a set down from Silva. If Tagir can spam takedowns he may be a huge leverage play. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Petr Yan | 8800 | Cory Sandhagen | Moderate | -210 | +180 |
| Yan is truly on his way to becoming the next Russian MMA Emperor. He’s shown very few flaws in the UFC and dominated some huge names in ways we’re unaccustomed to. His patience early in fights builds into a fury as he times opponents more and more efficiently. On top of the world class boxing he has a nasty trip game that land quick and effective takedowns. Given Sandhagen’s toughness and warrior mentality we’re in for a fun fight with a ton of stats. The winner will be a must have and Yan is a favorite for good reason. There’s not a ton of leverage on a champion but Sandhagen is going to be a popular dog, restricting Yan’s ownership ceiling more than others in the range. | |||||
| Alexander Volkov | 8900 | Marcin Tybura | Moderate | -310 | +120 |
| Volkov is levels above Tybura in the striking department. Tybura is also losing his typical size advantage to the tall Russian. He won’t have an easy time bullying Volkov against the cage. Volkov has constantly improved his takedown defense, as well. That leaves Tybura in the crosshairs of the rangy HW and getting chewed up from range. Volkov also has a good shot at a KO with how big the striking discrepancy is. | |||||
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 8500 | Benoit Saint Denis | Somewhat-Risky | -240 | +110 |
| After a string of UFC wars Zaleski took a little time off. Hopefully that does him good and he returns more like his old electric self. The UFC gets him a favorable matchup against a French grappler here. Not that Saint Denis is a pushover. He’s a solid grappler. Zaleski is just on a different level. Even if it hits the mat Zaleski has good BJJ outs. | |||||
| Amanda Ribas | 8200 | Virna Jandiroba | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +400 |
| Ribas is looking to rebound after her chin issue resurfaced in a KO loss to Marina Rodriguez. Marina is the real deal so that doesn’t bother me all that much. Ribas is a much faster fighter and better striker here. Virna is a strong wrestler but the athleticism gap may negate that enough. Ribas also has the BJJ to get back up. I see her going to work and getting loose with her striking against an opponent there to get hit. | |||||
| Andre Petroski | 8600 | Hu Yaozong | Risky | -225 | -110 |
| We love to see wrestlers like Petrowski in his debut who shoot for nine takedowns and land four of them. Though he did tire in the second round some. He figures to have an enormous wrestling advantage despite giving up a lot of size to Yaozong. I’d be very interested if Petrowski weren’t on short notice. If he gasses he could be in trouble. If he’s able to control his opponent on the mat that may allow him to conserve enough energy. | |||||
| Zubaira Tukhugov | 8300 | Ricardo Ramos | Risky | -165 | +275 |
| Zuba either starches his opponent early or fades away. That’s fine at this price for GPP builds. If he lands the big shot or dominates from top we may get a huge score. Ramos’s two UFC loses are KOs, as well. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Cory Sandhagen | 7400 | Petr Yan | Moderate | +175 | +450 |
| The Sandman gets a well-deserved title shot despite a controversial split-decision loss to TJ Dillashaw. Sandhagen is all about volume and violence. He shirks defensive soundness for offensive opportunity. He’s very likely to win the first round or two on that. What can he do as Yan starts to time him and march forward with his own offense? That will be this fight’s turning point. It’s a great price for a very live dog but that will be accompanied by huge ownership. He can still come close to value in a loss given his pace but his backers would need all the other underdogs in the range to lose. | |||||
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | 7800 | Shamil Gamzatov | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +330 |
| Lord Michal hasn’t lived up to the flashy boxing he displayed early on in the UFC. That’s likely due to the size he gives up to the likes of Jimmy Crute and OSP. Gamzatov is a more manageable matchup. He’s a Russian coast fighter without much grappling aggression. That’s proved fraudulent in the UFC time and again eventually. Michal as an underdog is a gift. He’s likely to be the aggressor and sharper striker. He also has power and KOs on his UFC resume. | |||||
| Makwan Amirkhani | 6900 | Lerone Murphy | Somewhat-Risky | +240 | +500 |
| The blueprint is clear for Makwan. Box for a few seconds and start looking for takedowns. He’s effective at landing them at 40% despite not being a power wrestler. If he gets opponents to the mat they are in real danger. His BJJ is as slick as it is lethal. Murphy has been taken down by prior opponents a good amount. He can’t afford any mistakes on the mat against Mr. Finland. | |||||
| Dan Hooker | 6600 | Islam Makhachev | Risky | +460 | +800 |
| This is probably the only time Hooker is priced below $7K. The guy is game in any fight. His length, output, and toughness make him a hard puzzle to solve. Early in his UFC career he struggled to defend takedowns at times. He’s upped his career TD defense to 80%, though, albeit against mainly strikers. If he’s improved it truly then he could turn this into a dog fight. We know Hooker can fight that style fight. We haven’t seen Islam have to do it yet. | |||||
| Allan Nascimento | 6800 | Tagir Ulanbekov | Risky | +310 | +700 |
| Nascimento put on a very exciting scrap with Raulina Paiva on DWCS. A fight he lost by split-decision. After a regional win the UFC came calling again. He belongs and will push a pace. Tagir struggled somewhat against a similar Brazilian in his debut win over Bruno Silva. That may show he’s ready for the style or that it’s a weakness. I don’t expect Nascimento to win but he is the line value, for sure. | |||||
| Hu Yaozong | 7600 | Andre Petroski | Risky | +185 | +450 |
| The last time we saw Yaozong he was a heavyweight. He skipped right past LHW and is now a middleweight. His size was advantage was clear at faceoffs. As far as his technical abilities we don’t have much of a clue after a three year hiatus at a young age. In 2017 Cytil Asker took him down three times. That can’t happen against a dedicated wrestler like Petrowski. If the size helps him enough he could get the short notice replacement Petrowski to tire in the late rounds. | |||||
| Roman Kopylov | 7000 | Albert Duraev | Risky | +290 | +600 |
| If Kopylov somehow fights off enough takedowns to make the fight enough of a kickboxing match he could let his real skillset shine. Duraev hasn’t been extended in some time and went right for the takedown in his DWCS fight when his opponent started kicking his leg. | |||||
| Benoit Saint Denis | 7700 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Risky | +195 | +400 |
| Saint Denis could be a trap waiting to be sprung if Zaleski’s starting to feel the miles he’s racked up in the UFC. The Frenchman is a solid grappler and could tire the Brazilian if he isn’t returning in peak form. Grappling wins usually payoff well. | |||||
| Ricardo Ramos | 7900 | Zubaira Tukhugov | Risky | +145 | +400 |
| This fight is likely much more fun to watch than to target on DK. Zuba is great for about three minutes. He’s a strong wrestler and packs a punch. Once his gas tank starts to burn he folds up. Ramos has had trouble with strong starters but hasn’t lost a UFC fight that’s reached the third round. At a lower price I’d roster more Ramos. At $7900 he’d have to perform surprisingly well. | |||||
| Li Jingliang | 6700 | Khamzat Chimaev | Risky | +435 | +600 |
| Li is a greasy dude. He’s not your friend and knows it. His style is win at any cost (including gauging your eye to escape a submission). He’s shown there’s power in his punches if you brawl with him. He has to hope Khamzat wants to prove something and ignores his wrestling for a stretch. | |||||
CORE PLAYS
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Khamzat Chimaev | $9,500 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | $9,100 | |
Mid Tier | Petr Yan | $8,800 |
| Alexander Volkov | $8,900 | |
| Value Tier | Michal Oleksiejczuk | $7,800 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Khamzat Chimaev | $23 |
| Albert Duraev | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Andre Petroski | $17 |
| Alexander Volkov | $19 | |
| Value Tier | Makwan Amirkhani | $10 |
Favorite Bets: Volkov -310, Ribas -165
Favorite Props: Blachowicz-Teixeira OVER 2.5 rounds -120, Amirkhani ITD +500
Live Dogs: Sandhagen, Oleksiejczuk, Amirkhani, Teixeira, Ramos, Oezdemir, Nascimento
Stats & Picks:
| Jan Blachowicz | vs | Glover Teixeira |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 28-8-0 | Record | Record: 32-7-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 18 KO/TKO (56%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (32%) | Subs | |
| -305 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Petr Yan | vs | Cory Sandhagen |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | |
| -210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Islam Makhachev | vs | Dan Hooker |
| $9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 20-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-10-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (15%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (48%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | |
| -650 | Vegas Odds | +460 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Alexander Volkov | vs | Marcin Tybura |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 33-9-0 | Record | Record: 22-6-0 |
| 22 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (41%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | |
| -310 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Li Jingliang | vs | Khamzat Chimaev |
| $6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | |
| +435 | Vegas Odds | -600 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Magomed Ankalaev | vs | Volkan Oezdemir |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 15-1-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) |
| -310 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Amanda Ribas | vs | Virna Jandiroba |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-2-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (6%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Ricardo Ramos | vs | Zubaira Tukhugov |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 19-5-1 |
| 3 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (37%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Albert Duraev | vs | Roman Kopylov |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (21%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (88%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -380 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | vs | Benoit Saint Denis |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 22-7-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 (1 NC) |
| 14 KO/TKO (64%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (13%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | |
| -240 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Shamil Gamzatov | vs | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 14-0-0 | Record | |
| 5 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | vs | Lerone Murphy |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-1 |
| 1 KO/TKO (6%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (60%) |
| 11 SUBMISSIONS (69%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +240 | Vegas Odds | -305 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Hu Yaozong | vs | Andre Petroski |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 3-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | |
| +185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | vs | Allan Nascimento |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (15%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (11%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) | Subs | |
| -410 | Vegas Odds | +310 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |