The UFC has an afternoon card lined up for us this weekend. I don’t at all mind a dinner time main event as opposed to well after midnight. Be sure to check the news prior to lock as plenty of the normal outlets will be behind. The mid-range is minefield this week. Plenty of upside to balance out danger. Hitting the right keys there will be the lynchpin to this week.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Max Holloway vs Yair Rodriguez | 9500/6700 | - | Stackability: Safe | -720/ +500 | +140/+800 |
| The UFC has a Max Holloway problem. Who wants to find a champion-caliber fighter that can post 445 SS on your face in a main event. Enter Yair, who’s coming off a PED suspension and looking to get back into some good graces. When he makes it to weigh-ins the Mexican fighter always puts on a good show. I don’t see him having much shot at winning but he’s dangerous enough to watch for a good live bet opportunity. He’s also extremely tough as we saw in his war with TKZ. He went into the fifth round on short notice getting pieced up all fight and still had the guts to pull crazy elbow attempts. It’s a must stack in cash. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Thiago Moises | 9000 | Joel Alvarez | Somewhat-Safe | -265 | +240 |
| Moises had started to deliver on some of his potential with wins over Bobby Green and Alex Hernandez. He ran into title challenger Islam Makhachev in his last fight, however. Thiago fought the good fight and gave Islam four rounds. In this fight, he’s a deserving favorite. Alvarez’s only weapon is a slippery submission game. Moises has world-class BJJ, so that would take a shocking display of elite grappling. Generally, Alvarez is content to hang out on bottom and throw up attempts. Moises can grind a top control win or keep things standing and utilize his improved striking. The main risk is that Alvarez doesn’t even try to get up and no stats accumulate. | |||||
| Sean Woodson | 9200 | Collin Anglin | Somewhat-Safe | -335 | +225 |
| Woodson has been working on his takedown defense and it showed in his SD win over Yusuff Zalal, holing him to 2/17. If it holds up and he’s able to stay mostly standing his incredible reach and crisp boxing output make him very tough to beat. Anglin does have a wrestling background so the threat is there. It’s a GPP type risk but a guy who can eclipse 100 SS is someone you can’t ignore. | |||||
| Felicia Spencer | 9100 | Leah Letson | Moderate | -310 | +225 |
| If Felicia works to get this to the mat she’ll slice right through Letson with effect jiu-jitsu. Unfortunately, she hasn’t shown the willingness to push hard for takedowns. Her striking is pretty wooden but she doesn’t seem to know it. Another boom/bust expensive option. | |||||
| Cortney Casey | 8800 | Liana Jojua | Moderate | -250 | +250 |
| Casey is a lower rung UFC talent who gets enough wins to hang onto her contract. When they step her up she’s outclassed. When she’s in a winnable fight she tends to be the more tenacious fighter and takes close wins. Good for her Jojua hasn’t shown much to indicate she’s a UFC caliber fighter. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ben Rothwell | 8600 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Moderate | -165 | +150 |
| The UFC finally found an opponent that was able to go the distance with de Lima when Maurice Greene neither tried to win nor get up as de Lima laid on him for 15 minutes. Outside of that, de Lima either has the power or BJJ to win early or he gasses/quits and gets finished. Fighting Rothwell is absolutely exhausting due to his size and style. I’d expect the pattern of de Lima being cooked after one to resume and Rothwell is very live for a second round finish. | |||||
| Da-Un Jung | 8300 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +350 |
| Jung is a risky bet this week. He’s got the potential to score takedowns using the outside trip he repeatedly hit against William Knight. That will clearly score well and be beneficial to stay away from striking with the rangy Nzechukwu. If he can’t he’s a bit of a sitting duck. | |||||
| Miguel Baeza | 8500 | Khaos Williams | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +180 |
| Baeza has power and his kicks are pretty dynamic. That’s usually trouble for opponents. Khaos is the kind of striker that can match it, though. I’d love to see Baeza work for a submission. He can hit the occasional takedown and has good BJJ. Williams was saved by the bell in his fight with Michel Pereira who had an RNC sunk in deep. | |||||
| Marc Diakiese | 8700 | Rafael Alves | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +330 |
| The path for Diakiese isn’t that hard in theory. He can easily be the busier man and outwork Alves. He has to stay at range to not get tied up in jiu-jitsu and also watch for Alves’s big power. | |||||
| Cynthia Calvillo | 8200 | Andrea Lee | Risky | -135 | +450 |
| The tale of a Calvillo fight is the same as ever. If she tries to wrestle it goes well. If not, she gets out-pointed on the feet. Lee has takedown liabilities and wins stand-up point battles. Hence, you’d expect Calvillo to use a wrestle-heavy plan. Then you haven’t bet on Cynthia Calvillo, my friend. There is no knowing if she’ll attempt takedowns at all. | |||||
| Song Yadong | 8400 | Julio Arce | Risky | -130 | +450 |
| Song always brings the fight. He wins behind output and decent damage. Superior athleticism helps. When he fights someone who can take him down he’s been in trouble. Arce isn’t a wrestler by any means but has good enough takedowns that it’s a concern. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Khaos Williams | 7700 | Miguel Baeza | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +215 |
| Khaos has pretty sharp boxing, quick hands, and hits very hard. That’s trouble for Baeza who usually enjoys a speed advantage and has shown his chin can be cracked if you land on him. If Khaos is going to win it’s probably ITD so this is a GPP fight du jour. | |||||
| Rafael Alves | 7500 | Marc Diakiese | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +300 |
| The UFC hasn’t been doing Alves any favors since he missed weight big in his debut (family tragedy affected his camp and cut). Up at 155 now, he can’t be the bully as easily. That’s a problem since he waits around for big moments. He’s not winning many decisions but he showed how devastating his power is catching Damir Ismagulov in their fight in the first and dropping him. Most fighters would have been done but Damir is tough as nails and fought through it. Alves also has good BJJ when he can get things there. | |||||
| Collin Anglin | 7000 | Sean Woodson | Somewhat-Risky | +260 | +650 |
| I’d say Anglin would be wise to go into this fight hellbent on takedowns. Woodson is a boxer and it’s clear he’s playing catchup in the wrestling department still. Woodson’s tall frame also makes it hard for him to keep shots from getting under his level. So Anglin has the potential to be a wrestle-heavy boom or bust. All that said, Yusuff Zalal only went 2/17 against Woodson last fight. | |||||
| Julio Arce | 7800 | Song Yadong | Risky | +110 | +300 |
| Arce is a great stylistic matchup for Song. He’s a good matador in the striking and can hit the occasional well-timed takedown. If he doesn’t KO or submit Song it’s a tough way to win a decision, though. | |||||
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 7900 | Da-Un Jung | Risky | +105 | +240 |
| Jung probably should have lost a kickboxing affair with Sam Alvey. Saying Kennedy’s more dynamic than Sam is like saying ice cream is more delicious than tepid milk. If Jung can’t find the trips he used to keep William Knight on the mat he’s in trouble on the feet. People also act like Kennedy is some raw regional fighter and not 5-1 in the UFC (albeit his win over Darko Stosic was due to point deducations). | |||||
| Joel Alvarez | 7200 | Thiago Moises | Risky | +215 | +450 |
| Alvarez has that sneaky kind of BJJ that you don’t know how much trouble you’re in until it’s too late. Guard subs should have stopped on the regional scene but he’s been getting wins off his back in the UFC somehow. Moises’ own BJJ is very polished and should be immune to those games from bottom but we can’t be sure of it until they fight. Thus, Alvarez has some GPP appeal. | |||||
| Liana Jojua | 7400 | Cortney Casey | Risky | +200 | +500 |
| Jojua has had about 30 seconds of successful UFC fight time. That resulted in an armbar from bottom win against an equally raw Diana Belbita. Casey’s main deficiency is getting stuck on her back. If Jojua has been training with some other Georgian’s and tries to wrestle she has an outside chance to win with a sub. It’s not very likely, however. | |||||
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Rothwell -165, Nzechukwu +105, Moises -265
Favorite Props: Baeza via SUB +550, Holloway via DEC -120
Live Dogs: Williams, Lee, Nzechukwu, Anglin, Alves
Core Plays:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Max Holloway | $9,500 |
| Thiago Moises | $9,000 | |
Mid Tier | Ben Rothwell | $8,600 |
| Miguel Baeza | $8,500 | |
| Value Tier | Rafael Alves | $7,500 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Max Holloway | $23 |
| Felicia Spencer | $21 | |
Mid Tier | Ben Rothwell | $18 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Collin Anglin | $10 |
Stats & Picks:
| Max Holloway | vs | Yair Rodriguez |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 22-6-0 | Record | |
| 10 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (31%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | |
| -720 | Vegas Odds | +500 |
| 9/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Ben Rothwell | vs | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 39-13-0 | Record | Record: 18-8-1 |
| 28 KO/TKO (72%) | Knockouts | 13 KO/TKO (72%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Felicia Spencer | vs | Leah Letson |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 5-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (60%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -310 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Miguel Baeza | vs | Khaos Williams |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Song Yadong | vs | Julio Arce |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 17-5-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (70%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Thiago Moises | vs | Joel Alvarez |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 18-2-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (11%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | |
| -265 | Vegas Odds | +215 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | vs | Andrea Lee |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 9-3-1 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Sean Woodson | vs | Collin Anglin |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Cortney Casey | vs | Liana Jojua |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 9-9-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (13%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Marc Diakiese | vs | Rafael Alves |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 19-10-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (37%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | vs | Da-Un Jung |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-1 |
| 6 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |