The UFC wraps up 2021 with a mixed bag of spare parts, up and comers, and seasoned vets. They're making sure you appreciate the main event heavyweights by putting on some very sloppy HW bouts lower down the card. There should be plenty of variance so buckle up.
UPDATE: Today's fight between Raoni Barcelos and Victor Henry is now OFF the card and will not happen.
PLAYBOOK:
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Derrick Lewis vs Chris Daukaus | 7900/8300 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +120/ -140 | +165/+110 |
| I could cut and paste the breakdown of any other Derrick Lewis fight here. He’ll be low-action like a cobra waiting to strike. The deadliness of his bite makes his opponents rightfully hesitant. Daukaus has shown some very flashy tools for a heavyweight but it’s come against modest competition. Lewis will make you earn the win by leaving no margin for error or you get KTFO. Daukaus should have an easy time in the early going but backers just have to have he puts Lewis away earlier than not. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Raoni Barcelos | 9300 | Victor Henry | Somewhat-Safe | -365 | +110 |
| Raoni has most opponents beat in all areas of MMA. He’s got half-decent finish odds, as well. The hesitation would be that he’s had mental lapses in fights where he could have finished things and it’s occasionally cost him. | |||||
| Ricky Simon | 9200 | Raphael Assuncao | Somewhat-Safe | -275 | +180 |
| We love Ricky for his pace, wrestling, and all-around entertaining nature. He can pile up the DK points most fights. Assuncao tends to fight at a snail’s pace but after a year and a half off, we could be seeing diminishing skills. If the same Assuncao shows up here that did against Cody Garbrandt he’s toast. | |||||
| Justin Tafa | 9400 | Harry Hunsucker | Moderate | -320 | -200 |
| Tafa being the first UFC HW to miss the 265 lb. limit is something. He should carve through Hunsucker but that kind of issue is hard to ignore. This will be a car crash with the guy that can survive the others haymakers the likely victor. | |||||
| Amanda Lemos | 9500 | Angela Hill | Moderate | -310 | +200 |
| Lemos has merc’d the lowest of UFC competition. Hill is a significant step up. Lemos would have to be the rare 34-year-old to blossom into a high-level talent. It’s possible but not probable. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Charles Jourdain | 8900 | Andre Ewell | Moderate | -190 | +140 |
| If Jouradin shows up motivated he’s a very dangerous individual. He’s made too many gaffs in his UFC time to trust completely. If he comes in with the right mindset then he’s capable of a spectacular finish. | |||||
| Gerald Meerschaert | 9000 | Dustin Stoltzfus | Somewhat-Risky | -225 | +100 |
| GM3 is another pretty untrustworthy chalk favorite. His fights are always high variance. Stolzfus hasn’t shown he can hang at the UFC level, though. Meerschaert is capable of finishing anyone on the right night. | |||||
| Don'Tale Mayes | 8600 | Josh Parisian | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +130 |
| Mayes has big power, though it rarely comes through. Parisian tends to get hit a lot, however. This is the sloppiest of heavyweight clashes. | |||||
| Cub Swanson | 8800 | Darren Elkins | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +200 |
| It’s getting harder and harder for Elkins to pull off the Homer Simpson. He ends up bloody and wounded every fight. Somehow he finds another gear to get through the “damage” and sometimes win. Mostly it depends on whether Cub’s had an injury-free camp and will put the volume on Elkins for 15 minutes. | |||||
| Jordan Leavitt | 8200 | Matt Sayles | Risky | -120 | +150 |
| Sayles has a major flaw in the defensive grappling department. Leavitt’s only real path is to win via submission. That makes him a solid tournament play with a boom/bust profile. | |||||
| Matt Sayles | 8000 | Jordan Leavitt | Risky | +100 | +275 |
| If Sayles has found a way to get in shape up a weight class and can stay off his back then he’s live. Leavitt does not strike well or defend strikes well. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Macy Chiasson | 7800 | Raquel Pennington | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +550 |
| Another fighter who missed weight, albeit on short notice. Macy is dangerous when she’s on point. She’s struggled against grinders like Rocky in the past when she’s not. Hard to say where she’ll be after the miss. | |||||
| Diego Ferreira | 7700 | Mateusz Gamrot | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +500 |
| Ferreira is live in the early going with great BJJ and pretty solid striking. He had a pretty hard weight cut which isn’t great after seeing him struggle to keep up with the wrestling of his last two opponents. That’s Gamrot’s bread and butter. | |||||
| Melissa Gatto | 7500 | Sijara Eubanks | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +400 |
| Gatto has shown she can hang with some pretty solid names. They’ve been spread out but she’s certainly capable. Eubanks missed weight which is usually a bad indication for her. | |||||
| Angela Hill | 6700 | Amanda Lemos | Risky | +245 | +700 |
| I don’t get the lopsided pricing here. Angie is a better athlete and busier fighter. Lemos has relied on big power in a division that it’s typically rare. It’s also come against the dregs of the division. If she doesn’t find that big hitter Angie could chew her up through three rounds. | |||||
| Darren Elkins | 7400 | Cub Swanson | Risky | +160 | +425 |
| There’s no doubt that Elkins has the heart of a lion. He doesn’t have many advantages over his opposition besides that. In MMA that can sometimes be enough. Elkins has made a career off it. | |||||
| Josh Parisian | 7600 | Don'Tale Mayes | Risky | +160 | +330 |
| Parisian will have the output advantage. He gets hit a lot in return, though. That’s a huge risk at heavyweight. This is another slopfest in the biggest division. | |||||
| Andre Ewell | 7300 | Charles Jourdain | Risky | +160 | +475 |
| Ewell can outpoint opponents if the circumstance is right. Jourdain has shown the poor ring IQ that would allow that to happen despite being the more talented individual. | |||||
CORE PLAYS:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Ricky Simon | $9,200 |
| Raoni Barcelos | $9,300 | |
Mid Tier | Chris Daukaus | $8,300 |
| Charles Jourdain | $8,900 | |
| Value Tier | Angela Hill | $6,700 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Ricky Simon | $21 |
| Chris Daukaus | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Mateusz Gamrot | $17 |
| Jordan Leavitt | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Macy Chiasson | $14 |
Favorite Bets:
Thompson -220, Daukaus -140, Chiasson +150
Favorite Props:
Hill via DEC +350
Live Dogs:
Chiasson, Hill, Gatto, Lewis, Ewell, Ferreira
Stats & Picks:
| Derrick Lewis | vs | Chris Daukaus |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 25-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 20 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (92%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Stephen Thompson | vs | Belal Muhammad |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 16-5-1 | Record | |
| 7 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (21%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| -220 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Amanda Lemos | vs | Angela Hill |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 10-1-1 | Record | Record: 13-10-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (70%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -310 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Raphael Assuncao | vs | Ricky Simon |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 27-8-0 | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (15%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (28%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (37%) | Subs | |
| +220 | Vegas Odds | -275 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Diego Ferreira | vs | Mateusz Gamrot |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 17-4-0 | Record | |
| 3 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (32%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) | Subs | |
| +155 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Cub Swanson | vs | Darren Elkins |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 27-12-0 | Record | Record: 27-9-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (35%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 33-14-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (15%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (18%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | |
| +185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Raoni Barcelos | vs | Victor Henry |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 16-2-0 | Record | Record: 21-5-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | |
| -365 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Justin Tafa | vs | Harry Hunsucker |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 4-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-4-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -320 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Sijara Eubanks | vs | Melissa Gatto |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-6-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-2 |
| 3 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Charles Jourdain | vs | Andre Ewell |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 11-4-1 | Record | Record: 17-8-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (41%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Raquel Pennington | vs | Macy Chiasson |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 12-9-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (8%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | vs | Josh Parisian |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 8-4-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |