NBA DFS Playbook: January 4

Sunday night was a huge disappointment for those who rostered Westbrook for two reasons: First, it was an elite matchup and game environment against Minnesota. Second, his 28 fantasy points came with a season-high 39.9% usage. He keeps turning the ball over, which will hurt his overall totals, but I bet he is back to his normal 40-50 fantasy points tonight against the Kings who are another top-10 pace team and who allow the third-most fantasy points to point guards. 

Morant was certainly NOT a disappointment on yesterday, dropping 52 fantasy points on the Nets in a huge win. Since his return from injury, he averages 45.8 fantasy points per game and at least 25% usage in every game. With Memphis still down Brooks, Anderson and Melton, we can continue to roll out Morant with confidence. 

Defensive matchup and fantasy points allowed by the Spurs are just “meh," but the Spurs are a 21-spot pace up for the Raptors and FVV now has four ceiling games in a row, averaging 56.25 fantasy points per game. This looks like a fantastic tournament pivot off a chalkier Westbrook and Morant tonight. 

Paul was able to reach 40 fantasy points Sunday despite blowing out Charlotte by 35 and only playing 26 minutes. This should be equally attractive matchup tonight against the lowly Pelicans who are 24th in defensive rating, and allow the fifth-most fantasy points to point guards in the last seven games, including 30 actual points per game. 

But the WORST team against point guards in their last seven games are the Lakers. It's combination of the ultra-fast pace and Westbrook's lazy defense, but the Lakers allow 25.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 9.6 assists and 2.6 steals to the opposition. Westbrook's propensity to turn the ball over helps any point guard that checks him. This is the best game environment of the night and Fox's minutes and usage are now back up to mid-30's and mid-20's, respectively. 

Washington got the job done without Brogdon, McConnell and LeVert last game, producing 27 fantasy points in 34 minutes at basement salary. Now he gets to run it back against a Knicks team ranked 19th in defensive rating and are missing their top three point guards. 

Tre Jones has filled in admirably while Dejounte Murray sits, scoring at least 22 fantasy points in three of four games. His minutes and usage are still all over the place, so Jones is best left as a tournament last piece in a tough matchup against the second-best team against point guards this year. 

Booker was well on his way to 45+ fantasy points before the Hornets gave up on Sunday, he had to settle for just 34. This game tonight looks almost just as appealing with a 224.5 implied total and an opponent in New Orleans who ranks 24th in defensive rating this season. 

The eight days away clearly affected Ingram in his return to the Pelicans' lineup yesterday. He managed to get in 31 minutes but only shot 3-for-18 and he might be limited or rested tonight. The DK salary is way too high for me, plus the Suns are a top-four team against shooting guards the last 30 days. Large tournaments only. 

White has filled Dejounte Murray's shoes in a big way, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in four of five games and the only one he missed being a game where they beat the Pistons by 45 points and he played 16 minutes. I love the DK salary here even in a tough matchup. His usage rate is over 20% in five of his last six games. 

For as bad as the Lakers have been against point guards lately, they have been just as abysmal all season against shooting guards. They allow 43 fantasy points per game (third most) this year and this game is looking like a late-night shootout. If that's the case, I want Haliburton to be one of the weapons in my holster after a streak of seven double-doubles in his last nine games. 

Bane put up his most shots of the year last night and went ballistic with 46 fantasy points in 36 minutes. The Yahoo salary didn't budge and the DK salary went down, so Bane looks like a very strong play on those sites, especially since he produced more than 30 fantasy points in five of six games before last night anyway. 

With at least 15 actual points and 22 fantasy points in five straight games, Monk is looking like a must if you want SG value on this slate. The Kings are third-worst against the position this year, including allowing 24 points per game. 

Quickley may not start in this game, but he is going to come in as the 6th man for 25-25 minutes and have a usage rate north of 20%. If Julius Randle sits, that is 17 shots and 28% usage per game that will need to be filled. Quickley looks like the man to do it with Walker and Rose still out.  

Small Forward is a little bit of a wasteland tonight, with most of the decent plays residing in the mid-range for salary. Anunoby is likely the best of the bunch despite only playing in three games since November 15th. He averages 33 minutes and 20 actual points per game in the two games since his return. The Spurs represent a team giving Toronto a huge boost in pace and Toronto continues to be dangerously thin on depth. 

Hart is now available after coming into the day as Questionable, and the Pelicans are certainly going to need his defense and rebounding if they hope to keep this one close. Hart didn't miss a beat last night after missing two games, putting up 15 points, nine rebounds and 33 fantasy points in 37 minutes. It's the minutes that could both be a blessing and a curse. If the Pelicans fall way behind, I think they would have no issues resting Hart. 

Typically very boom or bust, Barrett has been much more boom over his last three games with increased playing time. Barrett averages 20 actual points and 31.7 fantasy points in his last three and the Pacers are only ranked 20th defensively this season. 

The answer of Justin Holiday or Torrey Craig on Sunday night was definitively Justin Holiday. He torched the Cavaliers in 38 minutes for 31 fantasy points on 60% shooting. The Pacers remain without most of their primary backcourt and wing players, so expect another 35+ minutes from Holiday again tonight. 

As long as he keeps playing like The King, we are going to keep having to pay a king's ransom for his production. But he only scored under 50 fantasy points once in a month and how is the clear late night hammer in the game with the best total of the night (230). If you care about these sort of splits, James averages 26 points per game with 7.6 rebounds and 8.6 assists on 51% shooting in his career against the Kings. That looks like about the baseline upon which we can build our projections for tonight. 

If you can't quite make it to LeBron's salary tonight, Sabonis is an elite place to turn, especially on Yahoo where Sabonis is 7% of the salary cap less than James. Sabonis has turned in three straight games of at least 36 minutes and 50 fantasy points. He is also working on four straight games with a double-double and at least five assists. In their last 15 games, the Knicks are the third-worst team against power forwards, and I think you almost want Randle to play in this one considering how lousy his defense has been lately. 

The power forward options are seemingly endless tonight, including Mobley, who is back up to 35 minutes again and has three straight games with at least 38 fantasy points. I prefer him more on DK where he got an inexplicable salary drop of $400 than FD where his salary rose by $400. Yahoo seems very fair as well. 

Barnes struggled in his first game back since December 18th, scoring under 20 fantasy points in 29 minutes of play while only putting up nine shots and grabbing four rebounds. Still, we were frequently seeing 35+ point fantasy performances before the missed games, so the elite ability is in there. With the lack of viable small forward options tonight, if you're going to roster a Raptor, this might be the spot to do it. Especially with that FD salary. 

Perhaps it is because of all the benchwarmers playing, but I was surprised to learn that Toronto is the second-worst team against power forwards in their last 15 games. Johnson, on the other hand, has at least 20% usage in four of five games and has scored in double figures in 10 of his last 11 games. He is another playing benefiting from Murray missing time and the very low salary on FD makes him worth a shot.

If you're looking to pay this low for a power forward tonight, you may want to press that “Clear” button and start your lineup construction over. Bagley is a decent point-per-dollar play tonight in this fast-paced game with Richaun Holmes out. But he still has only topped 28 fantasy points once this year and has a very low ceiling. Last tournament piece only for me. 

There is absolutely zero reason why Siakam should have received a salary drop $9,300-$9,400 on DK last week to $8,700 today. In his three games back, Siakam is a man on a mission, averaging 54.7 fantasy points and almost 40 minutes per game. Now he gets the Spurs who are bottom-five against centers and give up 24 points and 17 rebounds per game to the position. Center is a tough position tonight, but Siakam should be part of your plan. 

What is FanDuel doing with this salary? I get that he has missed three of New Orleans' last five games, but he also has eight double-doubles in his last 10 games, and missed one of the two by just one rebound. Yes, Phoenix is tough on centers, but they are missing their top three and are giving up three more points per game to the position in their last 15 than they do on the year. DK looks like a stay-away salary.

Underpriced again on FD, Allen hasn't missed a beat in his two games back in the lineup. Averages in that time are 34.5 minutes, 19.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 43 fantasy points. 

This time, it looks like we have an underprice on DK. With no Brogdon, LeVert, Lamb, McConnell or Duarte, Turner must take on an oversized offensive role. He showed that last game with 36 minutes and 40.5 fantasy points including a double-double with three blocks. He looks like a lock on DK and Yahoo where you can roll with double centers. 

With Mobley and Allen back in the lineup, it hasn't slowed down Love too much, as he is working on a streak of six games with at least 35 fantasy points. Included in that stretch are averages of 23.8 points and 9.2 rebounds. The minutes are fluctuating somewhat between 18 and 32, so he is more of a GPP play for me tonight. 

Continues to be boom or bust, but has settled into a nice stretch of at least 30 fantasy points in three straight as he also benefits from shots left behind by Dejounte Murray. What we hope for with Poeltl is that he can combine his 12-16 points with double-digit rebounds. That looks likely to happen tonight against Toronto who ranks 28th in defensive rebound rate this season.