NBA DFS Playbook: February 28

Murray got the night off Saturday after playing 43 minutes and scoring 70 fantasy points in the double-OT game on Friday. He should be rested and ready to roll tonight. Hope you're ready to pay up for it as Murray continues to hover around $11K. Memphis is the best team against point guards the last two weeks, so Murray's not my top priority at this salary.

Murray's not my top priority primarily because we have SGA on this slate with no Josh Giddey and no Lu Dort. SGA has a 37% usage rate and 33% assist rate with those guys off the floor. 

Morant looks a little too cheap for this matchup against a Spurs squad who are bottom 10 against point guards, top five in pace, and 26th in opponents' field goal percentage. We've seen Morant go for more than 50 in three of his last seven games and this could be another one tonight. 

Over the last six weeks, the Thunder are the fourth-worst team against point guards and are sixth in pace. Fox's usage has been above 27% in every game since the Pacers trade and he should lead the team in shots again.

More of a tournament play considering this is a back-to-back and the Bucks and Jrue Holiday will give him a tough test. But we know Ball can pop off for 60 at any given time, and if tonight's the night it will sure be at low ownership.

Holiday must be mentioned since he will lead the team with the highest implied team total and the highest implied game total on the night. Seven straight games with at least 30 fantasy points for Holiday so he is will worth the mid-7,000s salary tonight.

Goodwin gave us the goods the last two games, averaging 26 fantasy points, but he is also $2,000 more than he was just five days ago. Still, he should play 30 minutes with Rondo, LeVert and Garland out again. 

As Grande and Impemba said on the podcast this morning, Mann never found a shot he doesn't like. The shots have been falling lately and he will need to take plenty of them tonight with how short-handed the Thunder are. He is scored more than 35 fantasy points in four straigh games. The DK and Yahoo salaries really stands out compared to how expensive he is on FD.

With the mid-afternoon news that Malcolm Brogdon is out, Haliburton immediately becomes the most attractive shooting guard on the slate. In an 82-minute sample with Brogdon, Stephenson, and McConnell off the floor, Haliburton has a 20% usage rate and a crazy 39% assist rate. His streak of two games north of 40 fantasy points continues tonight. 

Russell has yo-yo'ed between 29, 55, 25, and 41 fantasy points in the lat four games, so I'm using him just in tournaments in a tough matchup against the Cavaliers. 

Two straight slate-breaking performances with a salary just over $8,000. Does he get another 48 DK points tonight how that he dropped below $8,000? The usage, rebounds, assists, and steals are all consistent, so he is worth firing up. 

Definitely the Robin to DeRozan's Batman these days, but the usage for LaVine is still above 23% every night and he just rocked Memphis for 44 points. Miami is a top-10 team against shooting guards in their last 30, so proceed with caution.

Went from would-be chalk on Saturday to just 16 fantasy points when Fred VanVleet was surprisingly available to play. Raptors will be without Anunoby again and VanVleet is once again Questionable. Deja vu all over again. He will give you 35 minutes which could mean 20 fantasy points or 40. 

With Kyle Lowry ruled out, this is a play I love tonight on all sites. The salary in the low $6,000s is just fine and We have seen an average of 40 fantasy points per game in his last two. Now he gets the Bulls who have the 25th-ranked defensive rating in their last 15 games. 

Mills is just a dart throw it seems now that Seth Curry is taking all the shots when Kyrie Irving is not on the floor. Still, Mills' usage with Irving, Durant and Harden off the floor is 23.4% up 6% from his regular use. 

You heard it here first. Butler outscores every other small forward by at least 10 fantasy points tonight. Start with a little revenge narrative, mix in some Kyle Lowry missing, mix it with the Bulls being the fifth-worst team against small forwards. Add it all up and you get a smash spot for Butler in a game with a tight four-point spread.

Middleton is another play on the fantasy roller coaster these days. In the past five games: 40, 28, 36, 45, 26. Charlotte is a nice get-right spot as they allow the seventh-most fantasy points to small forwards and are still without Gordon Hayward. If this game can stay close, Middleton should benefit from the sped-up pace. 

Another player with a big boost with Brogdon out and still too cheap for his production on the new team. He has scored below 40 fantasy points once in his last six games and just now barely crossed the $7,000 mark on DK. On DK and Yahoo he is still too cheap. 

VERY consistent since the Harden trade, averaging 26.5 in his last four with a 52-point game just before that. With Kyrie missing tonight, he looks that much more attractive. He should easily cross 34 minutes in this one. 

Another good point from the Fantasy Alarm podcast this morning: With Levert, Rondo, and Garland out, the Cavs have almost no one who can create their own shot. Mobley and Allen don't do that. But Markkanen can offer that and it's helped him put up 34 and 36 fantasy points in his two games since he returned. This looks like another game where he can reach 25% usage. 

Count Osman also among those who will  need to initiative offense against the Timberwolves tonight. He is certainly inconsistent, but salaries below $5,000 for probably 28 minutes and 30 fantasy points is certainly worth a look. 

If your Bingo card had Lamb with 25 minutes and 23 fantasy points per game in his first two Kings' game,  you're the big winner. If he is going to keep getting that kind of run, keep rolling him out there near min salary on Yahoo and DK. The Thunder offer little resistance against the position tonight. 

I checked on Giannis' best game on DK this season. It is currently 82 points. I think there is an outside chance that gets passed tonight. The 10-point spread is the only blemish on what will be a fantastic spot. Sky-high total (241.5). Team total through the roof (125). Pace game (3rd and 4th fastest in the league the past month). Hornets allow the third-most points overall and the 10th-most points in the paint. Giannis is worth the price of admission.

DeRozan is going for 11 straight games with at least 30 actual points and seven straight games of at least 50 fantasy points. Do I think he gets there? Yes. The usage is above 29% every single game. This has the potential to be the most competitive, playoff-atmosphere game of the night and should give DeRozan a chance to be the man. 

Only one game in his last six over 36 fantasy points, but Minnesota should be a good matchup for him. They are dead last in the league in defensive rebound rate and are 16th in defensive rating. 

Bridges broke the slate last night with 57.5 fantasy points, but he did play 43 minutes in an overtime game so how much run does he get tonight against Giannis? They certainly need him, but this could certainly turn into a foul trouble game very quickly. If not, and if he gets his usual 35 minutes, Bridges will look to continue his stretch of 49 fantasy points per game in his last four. The $400 drop on DK after last night really has me considering him.

But for essentially the same salary, I might rather have Carter and his streak of 35 fantasy points in five of six games. He get the Pacers B-team tonight that has allowed the seventh-most points to power forwards in the last seven games including the most actual points to the position. This is a great spot for Carter who is playing many more minutes than Mo Bamba these days. 

Brissett is a much better deal on DK than he is on FD tonight, but he is still $2,000 more than he was just two weeks ago. That's what happens when you run off five of six games with more than 33 fantasy points. I do love the point-per-dollar potential on Yahoo and DK tonight against a Magic team in the bottom 10 of defensive rating and rebound rate. 

In terms of a cheap power forward, Johnson will likely always be my go-to when he is without the Nets' big three and they need him to play 30+ minutes. All three sites have him too cheap for the involvement he will have tonight. 

Considering how well Cleveland defends opposing centers (fourth-best against them in their last 15 games), I am likely paying down a few bucks to get Sabonis tonight. But Towns should be rostered on a level magnitudes lower than Sabonis or Bam tonight and does have 17 straight games with at least 35 fantasy points. 

Back-to-back-to-back games of at least 50 fantasy points for Sabonis against teams MUCH tougher than the one he will face tonight. And he gets a $100 bump on DK. Alright. OKC is bottom-ten in rebound rate and second-chance points allowed. Sabonis is in line to have a huge night.

It's not just against opposing backcourts where Chicago is having defensive struggles. They have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to centers in their last 30 games including 24 points, 16 rebounds, and five assists per game. Bam is on a streak of six straight games with at least 40 fantasy points and five of those have been double-doubles. 

Yet another fantasy roller coaster: 34.5, 16.25, 42.75, 24.75. 64 fantasy points in his last five. Probably my fourth or fifth option at center tonight considering the production and the point-per-dollar potential. He moves up if FVV is ruled out. 

Those last two games. Yikes. I chalk that up to fluky shooting as Vucevic is not going to keep shooting just 30% on a regular basis. Both of those games were still double-doubles and he has double-figure rebounds in seven of eight games. I can not wait to watch the Bam/Vuc matchup tonight in a potential Eastern Conference Championship preview.

Finally back to his double-double ways after several games without one. Again, Minnesota is last in defensive rebound rate this year and allows the fifth-most second-chance points on the season. That sounds like it sets up perfectly for Allen  who could be a sneaky value in the low $7,000s on both sites. 

Five straight games with increasing fantasy points for Portis which is a streak we want leading into the elite game environment tonight. In his last two games against Charlotte this year, Portis averaged 30 fantasy points. 

Back to back games with more than 50 fantasy points, and only one of them was a 2OT game! The Grizzlies represent a much tougher matchup than the Wizards and Thunder, so Poeltl is likely just a tournament dart tonight. 

It looks like Drummons is going to be the center for the Nets for their stretch run and he showed what he can do with the proper motivation on Saturday night when he demolished the Bucks for 46 fantasy points in just 29 minutes. Toronto is another tough matchup, but he already has one game with more than 30 fantasy points against them this season. 

You have to love a guy with three straight games over 20 minutes and an average of 20 fantasy points per game for just above min salary. With no OG Anunoby, it looks like Young is going to keep playing 20+ minutes and he leads all players in our point-per-dollar projections. 

Assuming Duarte is in tonight (Probable) the salaries look good for someone who will have a 25% usage rate and 14% assist rate based on previous minutes with all his teammates out. This sets up as a good spot against a poor Orlando defense.