NBA DFS Playbook: March 20

Don't let one disappointing game from Murray turn you away from him again tonight. Before the 36-point dud on Friday, Murray had at least 54 fantasy points in seven straight games. His five assists on Friday were an anomaly, as he had at least 12 in three of his prior four games and the usage rate was still 29%. Steph Curry being out tonight should at least make this a slightly better matchup and more likely to stay competitive. 

Young is truly questionable (EDIT: Game-time decision) headed into tonight's game, so you would want to pivot to Delon Wright again if he can not play. But if he can, it's a truly great matchup and we know John Collins will be out. In their last seven games, the Pelicans have allowed 24 points, seven rebounds, eight assists, and almost four three-pointers per game to point guards. 

EDIT: SGA has been ruled out of Sunday's game. At a slight discount from the other big two point guards, Gilgeous-Alexander is my preferred spend-up option tonight. The Magic are bottom-10 against point guards and both of these teams are top-11 in pace this season. SGA has at least 30% usage in the last 17 games in which he has played. 

Count McCollum as someone who also hopes Trae Young plays tonight. Among the top 100 players in minutes played this season, Young is dead last in defensive win shares and defensive win shares per 48 minutes. McCollum is on a 13-game streak of at least 37 fantasy points, and that is very likely to continue tonight. 

EDIT: Fox has been ruled out of Sunday's game. This will be a tough matchup for the Kings, but is more digestible with no Chris Paul on the other side. Fox is playing on another level since the trade that sent Tyrese Haliburton out of town. Since February 14th, Fox has only two games where he has not score at least 38 fantasy points. 

It's time to jump back into the Poole with Steph Curry out indefinitely. Poole will immediately take over the point guard role which will move Thompson, Wiggins, and Draymond Green back to their normal positions. In games Poole has started this year, he averages 19 points, three rebounds, three assists, more than a steal per game, and 31 minutes on the floor. Gary Payton also being out should give him an extra minute or two on the floor as well. 

Mike Conley is still listed Out for this game, and we know the kind of usage Clarkson gets in those situations. In a 1,051 minute sample with Conley off the floor this season, Clarkson has a 26% usage rate and a 15% assist rate. 

FanDuel has moved Fultz up in salary lately, but he is still very cheap on DraftKings and the minimum on Yahoo. You may not not need a cheap PG on this slate, but if you do, Fultz has frequently been dropping 20-30 fantasy points per night in less than 20 minutes on the floor. In their last 15 games, the Thunder are the second-worst team against opposing point guards. Much less necessary now with news of the next guy likely starting. 

With De'Aaron Fox now ruled out, Mitchell becomes a legitimate core play option who is likely to see huge minutes like on Friday night. In that game, Mitchell played more than 35 minutes and had a 22% usage rate. Look for similar stats tonight. 

This slot was reserved for Cameron Payne until about 3:45 ET when he was ruled out with an illness. With Payton drawing start, he immediately jumps into chalky cheap point guard conversation In 279 minutes with both Payne and Paul off the floor, Payton has a 18% usage rate and 35% assist rate. 

All Harden has done as a member of the 76ers is average 21.3 points, 10.8 assists, 6.7 rebounds and becomes the perfect offensive complement to Joel Embiid as well as an elite pick-and-roll option. Last time he played the Raptors, he went for 28/10/8 on 50% shooting. 

But for a nice discount, I actually like Booker better than Harden tonight. His matchup against the Kings is about the best you can get, they are the worst team against shooting guards this year, and allow 25 points per game and almost four three-pointers to the position. Booker has been above 31% usage in four straight games, so if that continues this could be a monster night for him. Add in the news that Cameron Payne will miss this one and you're looking at a 33% usage rate for Booker. 

Mitchell's numbers are eye-popping when Conley and Bogdanovic sit out this season. He has an incredible 37% usage rate and 24% assist rate. Even against a slow-paced Knicks team, Mitchell should be able to cruise and is a great tournament pivot off of Booker. 

Brown hasn't let an ankle injury that caused him to miss most of two games keep him his fantasy production. He now has at least 36 fantasy points in four of six games and has a 12-game stretch of at least 23% usage even with Jayson Tatum playing out of his mind. 

Trent tends to step up in big ways when the Raptors are short-handed like they will be against the 76ers. When Fred VanVleet misses, no other Raptor has a larger increase in their usage rate (4.3%) and his game averages in those situations is over 34 fantasy points per game. 

Forrest is a tough nut to crack even with all of the Jazz players missing right now. His minutes are all over the place with 20, 13, 8, 23, and 13 in the last five games with fantasy points ranging in between two points and 17 points. If you're desperate for an SG punt play and he gets the start, he may be worth a dart throw. 

Small forward is somewhat light on options tonight, but Tatum stands out above the rest, especially as the best high-end option. He is on an eight-game streak of at least 42 points in seven of those including tough matchups against Dallas, Golden State, and Memphis. In his last matchup against the Nuggets he went for 46 fantasy points in under 37 minutes. 

Barrett hasn't had a game under 31 fantasy points in a month and a half and should now be considered one of the more reliable fantasy point contributors. His salaries, especially on FD and Yahoo, haven't reflected that yet, so he is a great mid-range option against a Jazz team that is undermanned in the backcourt and on the wings. 

DraftKings bumped up Thompson to reflect the fact that his offense will increase with Curry out. But FD and Yahoo didn't budge his salary so Thompson looks like an excellent play on those sites. In his limited time without Curry on the floor this season, Thompson has a 31% usage rate and a 21% assist rate. 

We expected DeAndre Ayton and Devin Booker to have increased offensive roles when Chris Paul went down, but it's Mikal Bridges who has become an elite fantasy weapon. He has at least 28 fantasy points in eight of nine games and the Kings are the worst team against small forwards in their last 15 contests. He seems too cheap on DK and Yahoo. 

Assuming Richardson plays and starts, he looks like the best spend-down small forward option today. He has scored at least 24 fantast points in four of his last six games and been on the court for 28+ minutes in four of those games as well. 

Randle is all there is in the high-end power forward list tonight. He seems to be slightly undervalued on FD and Yahoo considering he has at least 40 fantasy points in five of six games. Randle and Barrett are figuring out how to coexist to the point where both can be elite fantasy options. 

You have some choices to make for Siakim tonight with Fred VanVleet out again. On DraftKings, he is eligible at both power forward and center. On FanDuel he is only eligible at power forward. On Yahoo, it's just center. Regardless, he should smash tonight with more usage coming his way. He has a 27% usage rate and 26% assist rate when VanVleet does not play. 

We may get point-forward Scottie Barnes again tonight and let's just say that worked out quite well last game. All he did was score 31 points with 17 rebounds and six assists and a steal. That was good for 61 fantasy points and now Fred VanVleet has been ruled out again today. Lock him in. 

All you need to know is with the team decimated by injuries, the Thunder allow the most points to power forwards in their last seven games. In doing so, they allow three more actual points per game to the position than any other team. 

Wiggins without Curry this year has been an offensive force. He averages a 26% usage rate and 13% assist rate. Combine that with the Spurs now ranking 19th in defensive rating and fourth in pace, and you have a recipe for a big game from Wiggins. 

Green has been right around 22 minutes per game in his last couple as he comes back from injury. But he may be needed for more than that with Curry out and he is averaging about one fantasy point per minute since his return. Green's assist rate when Curry is off the floor is an amazing 31% this season. 

With John Collins out indefinitely with the grossest-looking finger injury you will ever see, Gallinari will step into the starting gig and it suits him well so far. In four of the last five games, Gallinari played at least 27 minutes and scored more than 20 fantasy points. He looks like an easy path to a 5x score tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings. 

Boston has been fantasy death to centers in the past two months as they hold them to the second-fewest fantasy points in the league. But we know Jokic can transcend all of that on any given night and he scored 55 fantasy points against them in his one game this season. He is on another elite stretch of 51 fantasy points in eight straight games including games of 70, 76, and 93. How can you fade that? 

Watching Joel Embiid today against Khem Birch will be akin to me posting up my elementary school son on the playground. In his one game against Toronto this season, he scored a cool 61 DK points with 36 points, 11 rebounds, and four assists. He may not have the triple-double upside of Jokic on any given night, but his ceiling is just as high these days. 

EDIT: De'Aaron Fox has been ruled out so Sabonis becomes a core play tonight. Sabonis has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting on offense the last two games, including when he put up 30 points, 20 rebounds, and five assists on Friday when De'Aaron Fox was out. If that happens again, look out for another massive game. But even if Fox plays, Sabonis had at least 39 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games. Looks well underpriced on FD, especially if the Kings are short-handed.

You still never know which version of Valanciunas you are going to get, so he is best left as a tournament option. You might get 53 fantasy points in 27 minutes like one week ago. Or you might get 22 points in 25 minutes like nine days ago. DraftKings has him priced too high, but I am very willing to take a tournament chance on him on FanDuel. 

We could be looking at a monster game for Ayton with a very reasonable mid-range salary today. With Paul and Payne off the court, he has a 22% usage rate and 18% rebound rate. Plus, the Kings are now the second-worst team against centers this year, allowing 58.6 fantasy points per game to the position. 

All of the fantasy goodness coming Ayton's way tonight will also be there for McGee, albeit in about 16 minutes on the floor. The minutes haven't mattered much to McGee lately as he is putting up 22.2 fantasy points per game in his last six despite never playing more than 21 minutes. The cheap fantasy center options don't really stand out tonight, but McGee is the best choice of the bunch. 

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ruled out, there are two primary beneficiaries, and Pokusevski is the first. He gets bumps across the board including usage rate (22.7%), rebound rate (14.3%), and assist rate (13%). He played almost 34 minutes in his last game and could be in line for the same tonight. 

The other beneficiary of SGA's absence is Tre Mann, who never found a shot he doesn't like to take. In 154 minutes without Josh Giddey and SGA on the floor, Mann has a 31% usage rate and 22.5% assist rate.