forZe (World rank: #15) vs. ENCE (World rank: #20) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: forZe (-130) | ENCE (+105)
Map Handicap: forZe -1.5 (+215) | ENCE +1.5 (-270)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the first round of the playoffs for ESL Pro League S14.
- forZe - Rating at event: FL1T 1.22 | zorte 1.20 | KENSI 1.11 | Jerry 1.01 | almazer 0.92
- forZe - Rating past three months: FL1T 1.19 | zorte 1.16 | KENSI 1.10 | Jerry 1.09 | almazer 1.07
- ENCE - Rating at event: hades 1.23 | dycha 1.18 | doto 1.14 | Spinx 1.13 | Snappi 1.06
- ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.18 | hades 1.14 | dycha 1.11 | doto 1.07 | Snappi 1.06
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
ENCE removes Inferno
forZe removes Vertigo
ENCE picks Nuke
forZe picks Mirage
ENCE removes Overpass
forZe removes Ancient
Dust2 is left over
forZe - Key stats on Nuke past three months (12 maps): 5-7 W/L record, 45.8% pistol round win percent, 73.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
forZe - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (12 maps): zorte +45 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | FL1T +5 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | KENSI +22 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | Jerry -12 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | almazer -3 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
forZe - Key stats on Mirage past three months (25 maps): 24-1 W/L record, 64.0% pistol round win percent, 79.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 37.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
forZe - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (25 maps): FL1T +112 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | zorte +140 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | KENSI +90 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | almazer +84 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Jerry +66 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating
forZe - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): 5-3 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 77.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
forZe - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (8 maps): FL1T +32 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | KENSI +43 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | almazer +12 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | zorte +17 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating | Jerry -11 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Nuke past three months (19 maps): 14-5 W/L record, 60.5% pistol round win percent, 76.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Nuke past three months (19 maps): hades +71 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Spinx +75 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | dycha +1 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | doto +23 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | Snappi -10 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 6-2 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 82.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): Spinx +44 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | dycha +22 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | Snappi +17 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | hades +23 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | doto +2 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
ENCE - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 42.9% pistol round win percent, 74.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
ENCE - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (7 maps): Spinx +30 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | doto +17 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | dycha +8 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: ENCE wins 2-1
We can expect to see Inferno and Vertigo get banned right away for this series. From there, ENCE will likely pick their most played map, Nuke, though Ancient is another strong option for them. The incredible win streak has continued for forZe on Mirage as they have now won 17 in a row, and 24 out of 25 in the past three months. ENCE are also good on that map, but I think that forZe will still pick it right away to ensure that it definitely ends up in the map pool. Dust2 would then make the most sense as the decider map in this scenario.
ENCE managed to advance out of a group that included Heroic, Vitality, Astralis and Spirit, and they did so as the second highest rated team at the entire event with a 1.15 Rating across 11 maps played. On paper, both of these teams should win their own map picks if ENCE picks Nuke and forZe picks Mirage. It would be silly to pick against forZe on Mirage at the moment, but there is a chance that they float it through as the decider map, which could possibly allow ENCE to sweep. I think that both of these teams were underrated throughout group play, and ENCE is just the better team of the two. This international ENCE roster has shown a lot of potential, and I think that they should win their map pick against forZe, and they should be able to stay competitive on the map pick of forZe. I have ENCE winning this series 2-1 if not 2-0.
Favorite Draftkings Play: hades ($7,800)
Hades finished as the seventh highest rated player across the entire group stage of ESL Pro League Season 14 with a 1.23 Rating across 11 maps played. He proved that he could dominate with the AWP at the top level despite a majority of his match history coming against tier two opposition. At $7,800, he is a must-play if you are stacking ENCE in my opinion, as he could easily end up as the highest scorer from this series. Spinx & dycha both look solid as well, while doto and Snappi carry more risk, though all four have had a solid event thus far. ForZe is not the target for me here, but my top play on that side would be rolling the dice on Jerry at only $5,400 as a high risk, high reward option, while FL1T and zorte are typically the top fraggers.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Spinx ($9,200) | dycha ($7,000) | Snappi ($5,600) | doto ($6,200) | Jerry ($5,400) | zorte ($8,000) | FL1T ($8,800)
Liquid (World rank: #13) vs. fnatic (World rank: #31) - 1:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Liquid (-220) | fnatic (+180)
Map Handicap: Liquid -1.5 (+140) | fnatic +1.5 (-170)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series for the first round of the playoffs for ESL Pro League S14.
- Liquid - Rating at event: NAF 1.18 | EliGE 1.15 | Grim 1.09 | FalleN 1.03 | Stewie2K 0.96
- Liquid - Rating past three months: NAF 1.12 | EliGE 1.07 | Grim 1.03 | FalleN 0.99 | Stewie2K 0.94
- fnatic - Rating at event: Brollan 1.10 | mezii 1.10 | KRIMZ 0.98 | Jackinho 0.97 | ALEX 0.93
- fnatic - Rating past three months: mezii 1.22 | Brollan 1.06 | Jackinho 1.00 | KRIMZ 0.94 | ALEX 0.93
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams did play back in March at ESL Pro League Season 13, but that was prior to fnatic adding mezii & ALEX. Liquid swept that series 2-0 (16-11 Overpass / 16-7 Vertigo) and FalleN led the way with 45 Kills and a 1.39 Rating across two maps.
Map Projections:
fnatic removes Ancient
Liquid removes Nuke
fnatic picks Overpass
Liquid picks Inferno
fnatic removes Dust2
Liquid removes Mirage
Vertigo is left over
Liquid - Key stats on Overpass past three months (2 maps): 2-0 W/L record, 75.0% pistol round win percent, 75.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 32.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (2 maps): NAF +9 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | Grim +12 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | FalleN +2 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Liquid - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 5-0 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 78.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): NAF +47 K/D Diff, 1.35 Rating | EliGE +35 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | Stewie2K -10 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | Grim +4 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | FalleN +6 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Liquid - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 16.7% pistol round win percent, 60.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 34.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Liquid - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): NAF +4 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | Grim +1 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | EliGE -10 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
fnatic - Key stats on Overpass past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 80.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
fnatic - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (3 maps): mezii +16 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | Brollan +7 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating
fnatic - Key stats on Inferno past three months (2 maps): 1-1 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 74.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 20.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
fnatic - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (2 maps): KRIMZ +4 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
fnatic - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (No maps played)
fnatic - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (No maps played)
Prediction/Narrative: Liquid wins 2-0
Both of these teams typically ban Ancient, and we can’t be sure how the map bans will go because of that, as we saw on Tuesday with NiP/Mouz. I think that Fnatic will ban Ancient here, so Liquid could then ban away a weak map for themselves, like Nuke, which is also the most played map for fnatic with their current lineup. Overpass has been the strongest map for this new-look fnatic squad, and it would make sense for them to pick it here. Liquid have been dominating Inferno at this event, and I think they should pick it immediately if it is available, though this map has been historically pretty good for fnatic. If the decider map came down to Vertigo, Dust2 and Mirage, then I could see Vertigo as the decider since fnatic have shown a willingness to float it through, while Liquid have played it a few times recently and have likely been putting work in on it, so they might want to test fnatic on a new map for them.
Liquid has been in excellent form at this event, and I do think that they should be favored on most maps against Fnatic. Overpass would probably be fnatic’s best chance to steal a map from Liquid, but even that seems like a bit of a stretch to me. Mezii and ALEX have looked like solid additions, but this team still has a lot of work to do to be considered elite. Liquid has a habit of blowing leads and playing down to their opponent’s level, so nothing is out of question here, but if Liquid are focused then they should win this series rather easily.
Favorite Draftkings Play: EliGE ($8,600)
EliGE has had some outstanding maps at this event, and he should have the highest ceiling in this match-up. If his aim is on point, as it often is, then EliGE might win many of these rounds single-handedly. NAF looks really solid as well, but I think that EliGE has more potential upside since he typically takes fights earlier into rounds, and if Liquid just chew through fnatic then EliGE could be in for a monster day, plus he is $1,000 cheaper. Grim has had some insane rounds recently and is becoming a more consistent player, so I do like getting to him at $7,600 even though that is a more expensive price than we have been used to in the past. FalleN finished at the top of the leaderboards when Liquid last faced fnatic, so he looks like an excellent value at $6,800. Stewie2K is a risky play, but he often shows up with a good performance against big name opponents. Fnatic is not a priority for me on Draftkings especially since they seem overpriced in a tough match-up, but mezii and KRIMZ would be my favorite two options.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
NAF ($9,600) | Grim ($7,600) | FalleN ($6,800) | Stewie2K ($5,800) | mezii ($8,200) | KRIMZ ($6,000)