Vitality (World rank: #5) vs. Astralis (World rank: #8) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-380) | Astralis (+290)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (-115) | Astralis +1.5 (-110)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-175)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Group A upper bracket final of BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2021.
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.32 | apEX 1.13 | misutaaa 1.12 | shox 1.04 | Kyojin 0.82
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.30 | misutaaa 1.07 | shox 1.04 | apEX 0.98 | Kyojin 0.95
- Astralis - Rating at event: Magisk 1.69 | Bubzkji 1.08 | Lucky 1.04 | Xyp9x 0.93 | dupreeh 0.93
- Astralis - Rating past three months: Magisk 1.07 | Xyp9x 1.06 | dupreeh 1.05 | Bubzkji 0.98 | Lucky 0.97
H2H Data:
- These teams faced last month at ESL Pro League Season 14, prior to gla1ve’s paternity leave, so Xyp9x was benched at the time, and it was also Lucky’s first event with Astralis. Vitality won that series 2-0 (16-9 Overpass / 16-9 Inferno) and misutaaa led the way with 47 kills and a 1.59 Rating.
Prediction/Narrative: Vitality wins 2-0.
Ancient is the permaban for Vitality, but they were able to float it through on Thursday against Liquid since Liquid do not play that map either. In this series, they will need to ban it against Astralis, which means that Astralis could go for Dust2 as a ‘punish pick’, since it is the only other map besides Ancient that the French have not established dominance on with their current roster. Vitality will likely pick their best map, Overpass, though the rest of the map pool as a whole is very strong for them across the board. If I was betting on Vitality to sweep, then I might be a bit concerned about Dust2 possibly going the way of the Danes, but I still think that Vitality can win 2-0 even if Dust2 makes it way into the map pool. Vitality are playing elite Counter-Strike at the moment, meanwhile Astralis are going through another lineup change with their ‘six man roster’ for this event, so all signs point to an easy victory for the French side, even if three maps are needed.
These teams did face each other in 2020 back when gla1ve was out and Magisk was IGLing, and Astralis managed to sweep Vitality 2-0 (16-8 Nuke / 16-7 Dust2). Vitality were ranked number two in the world coming into that series, and a week later they were up to number one in the world, so it was a pretty similar situation where Vitality were in top form and Astralis still beat them without their full roster. I don’t see a repeat of that happening here, but it is a possible narrative to consider for the upset potential. If Vitality don’t sweep, then I think they should easily win in three maps based on the strength of their map pool.
Favorite Draftkings Play: ZywOo ($10,400)
ZywOo was a lock on Thursday’s slate at $8,800, and I think he should still be the top priority here despite his price increasing more than 18%. He is the most talented and most consistent player on either side, and I would get him into your lineup as much as possible, though his salary makes it pretty difficult to fit him in at captain. His stats are elite on every map, and he really stands out amongst his teammates on Dust2 in particular with a 1.26 Rating across five maps played in the past three months, while shox is the next highest on Vitality at 1.09. Thus, I also like shox more than normal because Dust2 might be played. I also think that Kyojin makes a lot of sense as a value play at $5,800 since there are a lot of good spend up options on the slate, and this should be a solid match-up for him. Dupreeh would be my favorite on Astralis at only $6,000 because that price seems too cheap, and Overpass has always been a strong map for him. However, my preference here would be to stack three from Vitality with ZywOo, if possible.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
shox ($7,800) | Kyojin ($5,800) | misutaaa ($8,600) | apEX ($7,000) | dupreeh ($6,000)
Liquid (World rank: #5) vs. Evil Geniuses (World rank: #8) - 10:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Liquid (-1000) | Evil Geniuses (+645)
Map Handicap: Liquid -1.5 (+190) | Evil Geniuses +1.5 (-235)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+225) | Under 2.5 (-290)
- This is a best-of-three series for the Group A lower bracket final of BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2021.
- Liquid - Rating at event: EliGE 1.24 | Stewie2K 1.11 | FalleN 1.08 | NAF 0.93 | Grim 0.86
- Liquid - Rating past three months: NAF 1.11 | ELiGE 1.10 | Grim 1.03 | FalleN 1.00 | Stewie2K 0.97
- Evil Geniuses - Rating at event: MICHU 1.29 | CeRq 1.08 | oBo 0.94 | daps 0.76 | SPELLAN 0.66
- Evil Geniuses - Rating past three months: oBo 1.04 | MICHU 1.01 | CeRq 0.95 | SPELLAN 0.92 | daps 0.79
H2H Data:
- These teams have some history since they both played in the NA region, though they haven’t faced since March 2021. Evil Geniuses are playing this event without stanislaw & Brehze, plus MICHU has only been on the roster since April, so Evil Geniuses are a much different team since the last meeting between these teams.
Prediction/Narrative: Liquid wins 2-0.
Evil Geniuses are simply not a tier one level team with their current roster, and Liquid also need to win here to secure their spot in the BLAST Premier Fall Final, so this should be a quick series in Liquid’s favor. I think that Liquid will want to use this as a confidence builder after their devastating 1v5 loss against Heroic, so they should be locked in. Inferno is the only map that Evil Geniuses have recorded a win on in the past two months, but Liquid have looked excellent on that map with five wins in a row prior to their overtime choke against Heroic, as well as the loss to Vitality from Thursday. That map could end up as the decider, while Mirage and Dust2 are two other maps that both teams are willing to play, and we could maybe see one or both in this spot. Ultimately, it shouldn’t matter which maps are selected, because Liquid are way better than this ‘budget EG’ lineup that is doomed to fail.
There is some history between these teams since both organizations played in NA events back when regional events in North America were common, but I don’t see that ‘narrative’ affecting the outcome. I could also see Liquid doing a bit of trolling since they love disrespecting their opponents with BM, and we might see things like Stewie2K going for ridiculous knife kills, but the gap between these teams is just so significant that there is no way they should lose this, even though they have a history of choking. Liquid should dominate in this spot.
Favorite Draftkings Play: Grim ($7,400)
Grim was the lowest rated player on Liquid on the first day of this event, and that could cause some people to overlook him here. He has been in great form in the past three months with a 1.03 Rating, and he has continued to become a more consistent rifler. He looks like a turret on some of his highlight site holds, and we have also seen him happily pad his stats in soft match-ups like these. Grim’s $7,400 price tag seems too cheap given his recent form and the tier two caliber roster that he is playing against. I think that everybody on Liquid has a chance of popping off in this spot, but EliGE would be my favorite spend-up option since NAF is sometimes too passive to rack up kills when Liquid completely outclass their opponents. I pretty much only target FalleN in good match-ups, and this series should be perfect for him, just like it was the last time these teams faced, when he finished with the highest rating on the server at 1.36 across two maps. I like Stewie2K especially given his cheap price, but we’ve seen him play very casually against teams that he does not respect, which is just another reason that Grim looks like the better value option if you have the extra salary. A three stack from Liquid is the clear best option in my opinion, but CeRq would be my favorite option on EG since he is only $5,400, he looked good on Thursday, and he was excellent when these teams faced in March.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
EliGE ($9,200) | NAF ($9,800) | FalleN ($8,200) | Stewie2K ($6,200)