Dignitas (World rank: #28) vs. LDLC (World rank: #49) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Dignitas (-205) | LDLC (+170)
Map Handicap: Dignitas -1.5 (+140) | LDLC +1.5 (-170)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series for the play-in lower bracket of REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 2. The winning team will advance to the playoffs.
- Dignitas - stats at event: hallzerk 1.17 | f0rest 1.07 | HEAP 1.02 | Lekr0 0.96 | friberg 0.81
- Dignitas - stats past three months: hallzerk 1.15 | f0rest 1.13 | Lekr0 1.09 | HEAP 1.03 | friberg 0.84
- LDLC - stats at event: hAdji 1.10 | Maka 1.05 | Keoz 1.05 | SIXER 0.94 | Lambert 0.85
- LDLC - stats past three months: hAdji 1.18 | Maka 1.12 | Keoz 1.05 | SIXER 1.01 | Lambert 0.94
H2H Data:
These rosters faced each other in September at Pinnacle Fall Series 1 where they traded each other’s map pick and Dignitas took the series 2-1 (16-7 Inferno / 17-19 Nuke / 16-12 Vertigo). Hallzerk was the highest rated player with a 1.23 Rating, though hAdji tied him for the kill lead with 70 across three maps.
Prediction/Narrative: Dignitas 2-0.
There isn’t much to say here in terms of narrative especially since neither team is playing in the upcoming Major, which starts on Tuesday. Dignitas technically already got eliminated from this event, but then EXTREMUM disbanded their roster, and Dignitas were given a second opportunity as the third place team in their group. LDLC found more success during group play, but also had a much easier group, so it is tough to draw comparisons.
These teams have similar preferences in terms of the map pool, and we could see Inferno & Nuke as the first two maps once again. Overpass is the permaban for LDLC, while Dignitas should continue to ban Dust2. Nuke is the most played map for both of these teams in the past three months, but more so for Dignitas, who pick the map nearly every time it is available. LDLC might go back to Inferno, which is tied for their most played map in recent months, but Dignitas showed much better protocols on that map last time in a 16-7 win where LDLC did not win a single CT round. Dignitas also have their highest win rate on Inferno at 75% in the past three months (Six wins, two losses), so perhaps LDLC consider Mirage, though they have lost three in a row on that map. We can be pretty sure that Dignitas will stick with Nuke, and while LDLC did win in overtime on that map when these teams last met, they just lost to K23 on Nuke 4-16 last week at this event, so they are perhaps not as solid as their 15-6 W/L record in the past three months indicates. Dignitas should have an advantage on the decider map in either scenario, especially if it ends up as Vertigo again, where they have looked solid and LDLC have really struggled.
I think that Dignitas should win this one fairly easily. They bullied LDLC on LDLC’S map pick last time, 16-7, and they came really close to sweeping the series, but it took them a while to establish their CT economy after winning T side Nuke, and they lost that map in overtime. Dignitas have lost five of their last six on Nuke, but I think that can be a bit misleading considering they have played strong competition, including losing to Heroic & Entropiq in overtime. On Draftkings, I would prefer a three stack from Dignitas with f0rest as my top option since he leads his team with a 1.21 Rating on Nuke in the past three months. Everyone on Dignitas besides friberg is in play for me, and hallzerk could be another great choice if LDLC do go back to Inferno considering he leads the team with a 1.29 Rating on that map in the past three months. If LDLC switched things up by picking Mirage, then hallzerk would still be in great shape as he leads the team with a 1.23 Rating on Mirage during the same time span. Lekr0 & HEAP both look like good plays in this match-up. I generally prefer Lekr0’s upside, though HEAP is much cheaper and has been better at this event. I am fading LDLC in this spot, and the only two that I would maybe consider would be hAdji & Maka.
Eternal Fire (World rank: #69) vs. Enterprise (World rank: #60) - 1:00 PM. ET
Moneyline Odds: Eternal Fire (-215) | Enterprise (+180)
Map Handicap: Eternal Fire -1.5 (+135) | Enterprise +1.5 (-165)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series for the play-in lower bracket of REPUBLEAGUE TIPOS Season 2. The winning team will advance to the playoffs.
- Eternal Fire - stats at event: XANTARES 1.26 | imoRR 1.03 | Calyx 1.00 | woxic 0.98 | xfl0ud 0.63
- Eternal Fire - stats past three months: XANTARES 1.27 | woxic 1.09 | imoRR 1.04 | Calyx 0.97 | xfl0ud 0.95
- Enterprise - stats at event: forsyy 1.22 | manguss 1.15 | MATYS 1.14 | The eLiVe 1.06 | ADEJIS 1.00
- Enterprise - stats past three months: forsyy 1.19 | The eLiVe 1.04 | manguss 1.03 | MATYS 1.03 | ADEJIS 0.90
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Enterprise wins 2-1.
The most relevant narrative here would probably be the addition of xfl0ud to Eternal Fire, which took place just over a week ago. Eternal Fire have lost three out of five best-of-three series with this new lineup, and their only two wins came against unranked Turkish teams: Sahangiller & Thunderbolts. EF have struggled against international competition, and xfl0ud does not appear to be the solution as he is the only player with a negative K/D ratio and a Rating below one in the 13 maps that this lineup has played together. Sure, there are some big names on Eternal Fire, but they have done little to prove themselves as a ‘Turkish superteam’ yet, and they probably shouldn’t be heavy favorites here.
We can likely expect to see Eternal Fire ban Ancient and Enterprise ban Vertigo. From there, it would make sense for Enterprise to pick Inferno, which has been their most played map in the past three months. Additionally, Eternal Fire have gotten absolutely smoked twice on Inferno with this lineup, and their stats are pathetic through two maps played with an 18.2% CT win rate, 52.4% 5v4 conversion rate, and 12.0% 4v5 conversion rate. Eternal Fire don’t have an obvious map choice now that they shown less of a preference for Dust2 after the update. EF have picked Nuke recently, but they are now 0-3 on that map with this lineup, so that might not necessarily be their best option. Both teams have a winning record on Overpass, but two of EF’s three wins came against unranked Turkish competition, meanwhile Enterprise have demonstrated consistency on Overpass having won 11 out of 15 maps played. I think that Overpass will likely end up as the decider, and Enterprise should have an advantage in that case if the series were to go the distance.
On Draftkings, forsyy & XANTARES look like excellent plays, and I think that they can both thrive in a competitive series. Forsyy has been the hard carry for Enterprise with the AWP, while XANTARES always seems to produce good stats in any circumstances as he is the only member of EF's lineup with a Rating greater than one on Inferno through two maps played. I like targeting the value on Enterprise here since I think they are underrated in this spot given the odds & pricing, and manguss, MATYS, and The eLiVe are all certainly in play for me. Woxic, imoRR, and Calyx are not high priorities for me in this match-up, while xfl0ud remains a complete fade.