Vitality (World rank: #2) vs. Virtus.pro (World rank: #6) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-165) | Virtus.pro (+135)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (+190) | Virtus.pro +1.5 (-235)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-120)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Semi-Finals of IEM Winter 2021.
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.25 | apEX 1.08 | shox 0.99 | misutaaa 0.97 | Kyojin 0.91
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.30 | apEX 1.03 | shox 1.01 | misutaaa 0.99 | Kyojin 0.91
- Virtus.pro - Rating at event: Jame 1.35 | FL1T 1.26 | YEKINDAR 1.19 | Qikert 1.00 | buster 0.98
- Virtus.pro - Rating past three months: YEKINDAR 1.18 | Jame 1.12 | FL1T 1.08 | Qikert 1.00 | buster 0.98
H2H Data:
- These rosters met in October in a best-of-one at PGL Major Stockholm and Virtus.pro won 16-14 on Inferno. Qikert topped the leaderboards with 84.1 ADR and a 1.24 Rating, though Jame had the most kills with 22. The teams played two other best-of-threes in 2021, but VP was without FL1T for both, and Vitality didn’t have Kyojin for the series at IEM Katowice.
Map Projections:
Vitality removes Ancient
Virtus.pro removes Nuke
Vitality picks Mirage
Virtus.pro picks Overpass
Vitality removes Dust2
Virtus.pro removes Vertigo
Inferno is left over
Vitality - Key stats on Mirage past three months (12 maps): 8-4 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 73.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (12 maps): ZywOo +89 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | apEX -18 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Overpass past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 72.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (6 maps): ZywOo +24 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | shox +20 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | apEX +6 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Inferno past three months (13 maps): 7-6 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 74.5% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (13 maps): ZywOo +58 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | apEX -27 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | shox -14 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Mirage past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 0.0% pistol round win percent, 66.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (3 maps): YEKINDAR +8 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | FL1T +6 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | Jame +6 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Overpass past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 73.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 28.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Overpass past three months (4 maps): FL1T +20 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | buster +10 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | YEKINDAR +1 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating | Qikert +2 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Virtus.pro - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 71.4% pistol round win percent, 77.4% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.1% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Virtus.pro - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): YEKINDAR +18 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Jame +35 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | Qikert -1 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating
*Stats for VP only include maps played with FL1T in the lineup. They have now played 27 maps together with this roster, so the sample size seems big enough to just rely on these results.
Prediction/Narrative: VP wins 2-1.
Virtus.pro have not dropped a map at this event and are the highest rated team with a 1.16 Rating across five maps played. They have certainly played some close maps, but they continue to find ways to win, and they even swept Gambit, while Vitality needed three maps to beat Gambit. Vitality have shown good form at this event, but they definitely have not looked as dominant as you might expect from the number two ranked team in the world.
VP seem to play around their AWPer more than any other tier one team, and Jame has been absolutely on fire. He is the highest rated player at this event with a 1.35 Rating across five maps played, and his success has been crucial to the team since so much of their gameplan revolves around getting Jame his AWP. Thus, it is hard to pick against VP when Jame is showing such great form. Also, FL1T has a 1.26 Rating at this event which puts him as the fourth highest rated player at the tournament. FL1T replaced SANJI at the end of October and appears to be getting more and more comfortable in this lineup over time. Plus, SANJI would absolutely never frag at this high of level since he was more of a support player, which means that VP’s ceiling as a team could be even higher than before with the increased firepower.
On the other hand, this event is essentially the ‘last dance’ for this Vitality roster. Reports came out that the team would be replacing shox & Kyojin with dupreeh & magisk and that zonic would take over for XTQZZZ as the coach. Perhaps this has been a positive in the sense that the French are playing without pressure, but at this stage of that playoffs, I have to think of this as a negative since they won’t be as motivated to prep for this match-up. Vitality have a dead roster, as opposed to VP's roster, which seems to be rounding into form.
On paper, this is a bit of a tight series. The best-of-one that these teams played went to 30 rounds, and it would not surprise me to see more of the same on Saturday. We can’t be sure of which map Vitality will want to pick against VP. They could go for Dust2, but recent statistics suggest that Mirage would be their best option. VP have their lowest win rate across any map in the past three months on Mirage, while Vitality have been solid with an 8-4 W/L record during that time. VP ‘s best option would probably be Overpass, which was a good map for Vitality earlier in the year but is now the map where the French have their lowest win rate across any map in the past three months. VP have won three out of four on Overpass with their only loss coming against NAVI at the Major. Overall, I think these are the most logical options, but I don’t think the map pool is set in stone here, and both teams have some similar preferences. I think that VP have a slight edge in this series, so I am going to ride with them, especially considering they are underdogs.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
FL1T ($6,600) | YEKINDAR ($8,400) | ZywOo ($8,800) | Jame ($7,600) | buster ($4,600) | misutaaa ($6,000)
- FL1T leads VP with a 1.31 K/D ratio and 1.23 Rating across four maps played on Overpass, which will most likely be their map pick here. Buster has also been a notable performer on that map with a 1.15 K/D ratio and 1.10 Rating, which puts him at second on VP in both categories. Of note: Jame is the only VP player with a Rating below one during that time.
- YEKINDAR leads VP on Mirage with a 1.14 K/D ratio and 1.17 Rating across three maps played in the past three months. FL1T & Jame are the only other two players on VP with a Rating above one during that time.
- ZywOo leads Vitality with a 1.23 K/D ratio and 1.22 Rating on Overpass across six maps played in the past three months, and he also leads on Mirage with a 1.47 K/D ratio and 1.30 Rating. I predict that VP will win the series, but I still think ZywOo is a priority play, and I prefer him over Jame.
G2 (World rank: #3) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #7) - 1:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-460) | Ninjas in Pyjamas (+345)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (-120) | Ninjas in Pyjamas +1.5 (-105)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-175)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the Semi-Finals of IEM Winter 2021.
- G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.31 | huNter- 1.21 | JaCkz 1.09 | AmaNEk 0.99 | k ennyS 0.96
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.35 | huNter- 1.17 | AmaNEk 1.06 | JaCkz 1.00 | kennyS 0.96
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating at event: REZ 1.18 | hampus 1.06 | Plopski 1.01 | es3tag 0.95 | phzy N/A
- Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: phzy 1.11 | REZ 1.09 | hampus 1.09 | Plopski 1.00 | es3tag 0.89
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams met as recently as November at PGL Major Stockholm, but G2 was playing with nexa instead of kennyS, and NiP were playing with device instead of phzy and LNZ instead of es3tag, so that result seems fairly irrelevant given the changes on both sides. G2 did sweep 2-0 (16-11 Inferno / 16-11 Mirage) and NiKo led the way with 51 kills and a 1.44 Rating across two maps.
Map Projections:
G2 removes Overpass
Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Vertigo
G2 picks Mirage
Ninjas in Pyjamas picks Ancient
G2 removes Nuke
Ninjas in Pyjamas removes Dust2
Inferno is left over
G2 - Key stats on Mirage past three months (14 maps): 11-3 W/L record, 60.7% pistol round win percent, 80.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 29.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (14 maps): NiKo +102 K/D Diff, 1.41 Rating | huNter- +54 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | AmaNEk +23 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | JaCkz -12 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Ancient past three months (5 maps): 3-2 W/L record, 80.0% pistol round win percent, 77.1% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (5 maps): NiKo +33 K/D Diff, 1.39 Rating | huNter- +25 K/D Diff, 1.33 Rating | AmaNEk +9 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (9 maps): 6-3 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 71.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 35.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
G2 - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (9 maps): NiKo +55 K/D Diff, 1.38 Rating | huNter- +19 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | AmaNEk +12 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Ninjas in Pyjamas - Key stats on Mirage past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 35.7% pistol round win percent, 66.7% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Ninjas in Pyjamas - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (7 maps): phzy (9 maps with Young Ninjas) +25 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | REZ 0 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating | hampus -3 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
Ninjas in Pyjamas - Key stats on Ancient past three months (7 maps): 5-2 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 79.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 24.7% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Ninjas in Pyjamas - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (7 maps): hampus +2 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | es3tag (6 maps with NiP/CoL) +1 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | phzy (4 maps with Young Ninjas) -2 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | REZ +7 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
Ninjas in Pyjamas - Key stats on Inferno past three months (16 maps): 11-5 W/L record, 46.9% pistol round win percent, 74.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 33.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Ninjas in Pyjamas - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (16 maps): phzy (15 maps with Young Ninjas) +45 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | hampus +16 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | REZ +27 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | Plopski +5 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-0.
The biggest storyline here is that device is not feeling well, which means NiP will be playing with phzy as a stand-in. The 19 year old AWPer has been a solid player for Young Ninjas leading the team with a 1.11 Rating across 59 maps played in the past three months. This is a massive spot for him to have to step up in considering G2 is one of the top teams in the world and this also the semi-finals of a LAN event. NiP have only played 16 maps with es3tag in the lineup, and they have an 8-8 W/L record since adding him, though they have won their last three series against good opponents: OG, Liquid and GODSENT. Es3tag hasn’t actually shined within this roster yet and he has a 0.91 Rating during that time. There are just a lot of moving parts for NiP right now, and it is difficult to feel confident about this roster with phzy in the mix.
As for G2, we do have to remember that nexa is out and that they have only played six maps since bringing kennyS back off the bench. They have won five out of the six of those maps and kennyS has played decent with a 0.96 Rating, though he leads the event with 0.13 flash assists per round, so chemistry does not seem to be an issue. The format of this event gave G2 a full week to prep from their last match, and I think a team like G2 benefits from that time off more than anybody since it gives kennyS more of a chance to get comfortable within this roster. G2 did announce that they are acquiring the young AWP prodigy, m0NESY, so kennyS does not appear to have any future with this roster, but he does appear to be working towards a comeback into CS:GO, which means that he will really want to have a strong performance while he is still in the G2 lineup.
Mirage is G2’s most played map, and they have dominated on it with an 11-3 W/L record in the past three months, along with a notable 80.6% 5v4 conversion rate. NiP have lost four out of their last five on Mirage, and I doubt they would be able to compete here with this roster, though it is an easy map for phzy to slot into. Inferno has been NiP’s favorite map, but it’s probably G2’s second best map at the moment, and NiP would be forced to start T side where they have a 45.1% T round win percent in the past three months. Ancient would likely be a better option since that has been a strong map for them, though the only issue might be that Young Ninjas don’t play a lot of Ancient, so it might not be phzy's first choice. I think Ancient would give them their best chance to win, but it’s still difficult to see them getting past G2 on LAN with phzy standing in for device. This should be a sweep for G2 unless maybe NiP manage to step up on Ancient, but even then, it would be highly unlikely for NiP to win the series.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
NiKo ($9,000) | huNter- ($8,000) | kennyS ($5,200) | AmaNEk ($7,200) | JaCkz ($6,200) | phzy ($4,400)
- NiKo has been elite on Mirage, Ancient and Inferno, and he leads his team in Rating on both. HuNter- is second on G2 on all three maps. NiKo is also the second highest rated player at this event with a 1.31 Rating across six maps played.
- I think kennyS has a ton of upside at only $5,200 on Draftkings. He will have the AWP in his hands and if he gets hot then this price will look like a joke.
- If I’m playing anyone on NiP, it would be phzy at $4,400. It’s a risky play, but again, he will have the AWP in his hands, and he is certainly capable of fragging, though this is a challenging spot for him.